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People attend a protest against Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government and to call for the release of hostages kidnapped in the deadly October 7 attack on Israel by the Palestinian Islamist group Hamas, in Tel Aviv, Israel, June 1, 2024.
Biden’s deal is Netanyahu’s dilemma
Israel is reportedly expected to accept US President Joe Biden’s proposal for a cease-fire with Hamas. The three-phase plan includes a six-week stop to combat, hostage releases in exchange for Palestinian prisoners, and, in an eventual third chapter, a permanent cessation of hostilities and reconstruction. Ophir Falk, chief foreign policy advisor to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, said of the deal that “it’s not a good deal, but we dearly want the hostages released, all of them.”
What’s behind Israel’s about-face? Netanyahu is not only facing increasing pressure from the families of the hostages and the Israeli public but also from the United States. White House national security spokesperson John Kirby said on Sunday that if Hamas accepts the deal to end the Gaza war, the US expects Israel to accept it as well.
Whether Bibi will keep power long enough to see the deal through is another matter. Far-right coalition members including Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir arethreatening to bring down his government, withBen-Gvir describing the deal as “reckless” and a “security danger to Israel.” Ben-Gvir’s Otzma Yehudit party is currently propping up Netanyahu’s coalition; without its support, the government would fall and elections would have to be called.
In response, Defense MinisterYoav Gallant said officials are working on a “governing alternative to Hamas” in Gaza by “bringing in other forces that will enable the formation of a governing alternative [to Hamas].”
Hamas’ response, meanwhile, has been cautiously positive, with a spokesperson saying the group is ready to engage in exchange for a permanent cease-fire and the assurance of continuous humanitarian aid.
Big Picture. For Biden, the deal is about ending current hostilities, but it’s also about establishing a wider basis for peace in the Middle East. The US wants Israel to be part of a regional security network “to counter the threat posed by Iran” and is working to revive the normalization agreement Biden was trying to broker between Israel and Saudi Arabia before the war broke out.
But unless the deal can be inked and enforced, that prospect remains remote. Meanwhile, Israel’s War Cabinet Minister Benny Gantz and opposition leader Yair Lapid are urging Israeli leaders to discuss “next steps” as soon as possible. Stay tuned.Displaced Palestinians, who fled Rafah after the Israeli military began evacuating civilians from the eastern parts of the southern Gazan city, ahead of a threatened assault, amid the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas, travel on a vehicle, in Khan Younis in the southern Gaza Strip May 6, 2024.
Hamas accepts cease-fire proposal, but Israel still strikes Rafah
On Tuesday, the Israeli military reported its tanks had rolled into Rafah and established control over the Gaza side of the border crossing with Egypt. The incursion was more restrained than the long-threatened ground invasion was expected to be, likely because Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is facing pressure to agree to a cease-fire with Hamas, which is backed by the United States and Arab nations.
On Monday, Hamas unexpectedly accepted a Qatari-Egyptian cease-fire proposal for Gaza, which Israel says it is examining. The deal would secure the release of hostages still being held in Gaza. But rather than stalling the invasion, the Israeli war cabinet “unanimously decided” to continue with plans for the invasion and launched strikes in eastern Rafah late Monday.
The diplomatic breakthrough – which followed mass weekend protests demanding the Israeli government bring home the remaining hostages held in Gaza – was meant to put pressure on Netanyahu. The United States and other key allies had also been pressuring Israel to refrain from attacking Rafah.
“Netanyahu is trying to have it both ways — continue talks in Egypt by sending a team while proceeding with attacks into Rafah,” says Eurasia Group analyst Greg Brew. ”The door hasn't closed on a deal yet.”
Israel’s war cabinet said it would continue to work on a deal, sending delegates to Cairo on Tuesday to negotiate aspects it still finds objectionable (the deal’s full details are not publicly known).
We’re watching for Hamas’ reaction to the Rafah attacks and how it affects any longer-term cease-fire prospects.
Kushner: Palestine's Mahmoud Abbas is no 'great dealmaker or statesman'
White House senior advisor Jared Kushner, who masterminded the Trump administration's new Mideast peace proposal, had tough words for Mahmoud Abbas, the President of the Palestinian Authority, accusing him of being more interested in "flying around" the world than running his government efficiently for his people.
So, who is Mahmoud Abbas?
Abbas runs the Palestinian National Authority (PA), the semi-autonomous government based in Ramallah that manages local affairs in the Palestinian territories in the West Bank. He assumed this role in 2005 after the death of longtime leader Yasser Arafat. The 84-year old Abbas, known colloquially as Abu Mazen, is a veteran of Palestinian politics and peace negotiations: he accompanied Arafat to the White House to sign the Oslo Accords back in 1993.
Abbas has long pursued international recognition of Palestinian statehood. Palestine now has non-member state status at the UN, and in 2015, became a member of the International Criminal Court.
Abbas has firmly rejected the new US peace plan, which was written without input from Palestinian leaders, as "the slap of the century."
GZERO WORLD with Ian Bremmer airs nationwide on public television Fridays beginning at 11 a.m. ET. Check local listings. The interview will also be published in full on gzeromedia.com on Monday, February 3, at 6 a.m. ET.
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