We have updated our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use for Eurasia Group and its affiliates, including GZERO Media, to clarify the types of data we collect, how we collect it, how we use data and with whom we share data. By using our website you consent to our Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy, including the transfer of your personal data to the United States from your country of residence, and our use of cookies described in our Cookie Policy.
{{ subpage.title }}
NATO is "back to basics" defending Europe from an aggressive Russia
NATO’s renewed strength and commitment to its original mission of countering an aggressive Russia in Europe was on full display at the alliance's 75th-anniversary summit in Washington, DC. On GZERO World, Ian Bremmer sat down with Poland Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski on the sidelines of the summit to discuss the mood among NATO allies and Sikorski’s assessment of the battlefield two and a half years into a bloody, brutal war with no end in sight. Sikorski, whose country shares a 300+ mile border with Ukraine, remains optimistic that Russian defeat is inevitable.
“Putin misjudged us. He thought Ukraine would just cave in and he’d walk into a victory parade,” Sikorski says, “I don’t think in his worst dreams he anticipated we’d be spending hundreds of billions on arms and ammunition and that two years on, he’d still be controlling only 20% of Ukrainian territory.”
Sikorski says that Putin’s war crimes, including attacks on civilian infrastructure and a children’s hospital, have only strengthened Western resolve. He points to the heavy casualties and economic strain Russia faces, predicting a potential collapse of the Russian economy if the war continues. He notes Ukraine’s strategic victories against a much larger army, such as taking out the Russian fleet in the Black Sea without a navy. Sikorski says it’s in NATO’s best interest to keep sending weapons and financial aid to Kyiv because the cost of not sending assistance will ultimately be much higher.
“It's the cheapest and most effective way to signal to Putin, but also to others,” Sikorski insists, “that regaining what you regard as a renegade province is harder than you think."
Watch the full episode: Ukraine can still win this war, says Poland's FM
Season 7 of GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, launches nationwide on public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don''t miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔).
How Ukraine's EU membership would change Europe
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden and co-chair of the European Council on Foreign Relations, shares his perspective on European politics from Stockholm.
To which extent is the betting scandal overshadowing everything else in the last week of the UK election campaign?
Well, I mean, the Conservative Party has been the one thing after the others. They never really got traction for any of their attempts to have a, from them, positive message in this particular campaign. So it's downhill. I think to be quite honest, the election campaign is now only about the size of the catastrophic defeat for the Conservative Party. And then, of course, the Labor Party is surviving with very high figures without much clarity on exactly what the policies are going to be for the incoming Labor government.
Will the start of the talks about the accession of Ukraine to the European Union impact upon the conduct of the war?
I don't think it will immediately, but we should not underestimate the historic nature of this particular decision. A couple of years ago, the entire thought about Ukraine ever being a member of the European Union was absolutely unthinkable in Brussels among the member states. Now it's become a strategically imperative. And negotiations started this Tuesday with Moldova as well. They will take their time, but it's a sign that the 27 member states of the European Union see the future of Ukraine as an essential part of the future of a democratic Europe. And that is going to have its long term impact.
Why was Slovakia's Prime Minister attacked?
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden and co-chair of the European Council on Foreign Relations, shares his perspective on European politics from Tallinn, Estonia.
What was the background to the attempted assassination of the Prime Minister of Slovakia?
Well, we don't know everything. A person, 71-year-old man has been apprehended. But the background seems to be that the attempt was triggered by the climate of polarization that has been there in Slovak policies for quite some time, notably this year with elections, presidential one, last year with parliamentary elections, but even before that. So the lesson of this horrible act is that we have to be careful with the political culture and the political climate in our democracies. Otherwise, there's a risk-averse, triggering actions by individuals of this sort.
Are there really risks of a new wave of Russian attempts to destabilize Europe?
Well, what's been happening in the last few weeks is that it's been put out warnings by NATO itself, as a matter of fact, by individual countries in NATO that they have seen indications that Russia has started to encourage recent acts of sabotage, of violence, of different sorts of disturbing and destabilizing activities throughout Europe in a way that we haven't seen to the same extent before. It is, of course, if that is the case, and this seems to be the case, a sign of the desperation of the regime in Moscow, and how it’s trying to, in different ways, escalate their confrontation with the countries of Europe. We'll see how much this will have an effect, and we'll see how much the countermeasures that will be taken will also have an effect.
A natural gas pipe in front of EU and Russian flags.
What We're Watching: Russia-EU pipeline repairs, AMLO in the (White) House, Sri Lanka's new leader
Will Russia turn the taps back on?
“Trust us,” Russia is saying, “we’re just doing routine maintenance.” Moscow has just shut off its Nord Stream 1 pipeline, a major source of natural gas for Germany, for 10 days of summer repairs. Annual checkups to these pipelines are normal, but this is no normal year. Berlin worries the Kremlin might leave the pipes closed as a way to retaliate against the EU for the bloc’s Ukraine-related sanctions. Nord Stream 1 carries about 55 billion cubic meters of gas annually to Germany, equaling about half of the country’s yearly consumption. If Moscow keeps the line shut, Europe would struggle to store up enough gas supplies ahead of next winter. Natural gas prices in Europe are already soaring, and although the EU is moving to wean itself off of Russian energy, any further shortfalls would further stoke already-high inflation, with unpredictable political consequences across the continent. Putin, of course, knows this. Keep an eye on that “closed for repairs” sign hanging on Nord Stream 1.
Biden meets AMLO
Mexico’s President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, popularly known as AMLO, visits the White House on Tuesday for a sit-down with US President Joe Biden at a time when ties are tense. López Obrador has recently irked the Biden administration by calling US support for Ukraine a “crass error” and by skipping the US-hosted Summit of the Americas because the White House didn’t invite the authoritarian leaders of Cuba, Venezuela, and Nicaragua. Washington, meanwhile, has irritated AMLO with criticisms that he’s undermined the independence of some of Mexico’s governing institutions and hasn’t done enough to protect journalists’ lives. Still, the two men will try to make progress on two key issues. On immigration, Mexico still allows the US to deport non-Mexican migrants back into Mexico under the controversial Title 42 policy, but in exchange AMLO wants Biden to authorize more work visas for Mexicans and Central Americans – perhaps a tough sell for a Democrat in an election year. Trade too will figure in the meeting: Washington is concerned about Mexico’s loose adherence to environmental and labor standards in the US-Mexico-Canada free trade deal (the NAFTA 2.0 pact that Trump negotiated in 2020.)