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Why was Slovakia's Prime Minister attacked?
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden and co-chair of the European Council on Foreign Relations, shares his perspective on European politics from Tallinn, Estonia.
What was the background to the attempted assassination of the Prime Minister of Slovakia?
Well, we don't know everything. A person, 71-year-old man has been apprehended. But the background seems to be that the attempt was triggered by the climate of polarization that has been there in Slovak policies for quite some time, notably this year with elections, presidential one, last year with parliamentary elections, but even before that. So the lesson of this horrible act is that we have to be careful with the political culture and the political climate in our democracies. Otherwise, there's a risk-averse, triggering actions by individuals of this sort.
Are there really risks of a new wave of Russian attempts to destabilize Europe?
Well, what's been happening in the last few weeks is that it's been put out warnings by NATO itself, as a matter of fact, by individual countries in NATO that they have seen indications that Russia has started to encourage recent acts of sabotage, of violence, of different sorts of disturbing and destabilizing activities throughout Europe in a way that we haven't seen to the same extent before. It is, of course, if that is the case, and this seems to be the case, a sign of the desperation of the regime in Moscow, and how it’s trying to, in different ways, escalate their confrontation with the countries of Europe. We'll see how much this will have an effect, and we'll see how much the countermeasures that will be taken will also have an effect.
Leaders of various political parties attend a televised debate ahead of Slovak early parliamentary election.
Will Slovakia elect a pro-Russian premier?
On Saturday, Slovaks hit the polls in an election that has Brussels and Washington on edge. The wily left-wing, populist former PM Robert Fico, who wants to end support for neighboring Ukraine and block the country’s accession to NATO and the EU, is running neck-and-neck with the liberal Progressive Slovakia party.
Fico (that’s “FEE-tso” if you want to say it like a Slovak) has served two prior stints as PM. He was ousted in 2018 amid allegations that his associates had murdered an investigative journalist for reporting on corruption. Since then, Slovaks have suffered a succession of weak and unstable caretaker governments.
Fico has surged in the polls in part by playing on Slovaks’ historic pan-Slavic affinity for Russia, which some say has been boosted by recent Russian influence campaigns. He has also pledged to crack down on migration.
Critics and supporters alike think Fico could try to become an “illiberal” European leader in the mold of Hungary’s PM Viktor Orbán. Given the EU’s unanimity requirements for major policy initiatives, a Fico-led government could complicate the union’s future EU expansion initiatives or sanctions against Russia – particularly in a partnership with Budapest.
That said, no matter who wins on Saturday, a fragmented vote means it will be hard to form an ideologically coherent government. That could limit any radical changes under Fico – but could also undermine a liberal government. Still, Fico’s strong showing is already a potential bellwether of cracks in the EU’s Ukraine policy, even among Kyiv’s closest European neighbors.
For more on this: How did Slovakia become an independent country without bloodshed? Read our look back at the unusual “Velvet Divorce” here.