<p><strong>Not all rosy. </strong>Before Ardern's<a href="https://www.dw.com/en/jacinda-ardern-leadership-in-coronavirus-response/a-53733397" target="_blank"> effective</a> handling of the pandemic boosted Labour's poll numbers, some analysts <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-26/whats-eating-jacinda-arderns-ratings-new-zealand-politics/11998556" target="_blank">mused</a> that Ardern, a darling-of the center- left, might be booted out of office after just one term.</p>
<p>That's because her government had failed to follow through on several key policy goals, including her flagship housing program, "<a href="https://www.kiwibuild.govt.nz/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">KiwiBuild," </a>intended to tackle the country's growing homelessness crisis. But after missing <em>every single </em>construction deadline, Ardern was forced to <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/sep/04/new-zealand-scraps-overly-ambitious-plan-to-tackle-housing-crisis" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">walk back</a> her commitment, calling the plan "overly ambitious." </p>
<p>It was a massive setback for a prime minister who has sought to craft an<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/sep/02/jacindamania-rocketing-rise-of-new-zealand-labours-fresh-political-hope" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"> image </a>as a warrior for lower-income New Zealanders.</p>
<p>In the meantime, New Zealand's housing crisis has only gotten worse: Auckland, the most populous city, is one of the most <a href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2019/03/the-worlds-most-expensive-places-to-own-a-home/" target="_blank">expensive cities</a> in the world to own a home, while a recent survey <a href="http://www.demographia.com/dhi.pdf" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">ranked</a> <em>all </em>of New Zealand's major cities as "severely unaffordable." </p>
<p>Despite Ardern's efforts to tackle these bread and butter issues, the homelessness crisis has mostly deepened under her watch, while <a href="https://www.stats.govt.nz/information-releases/child-poverty-statistics-year-ended-june-2019" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">child poverty</a> remains a persistent issue. </p>
<p><strong>So why is Ardern so popular? </strong>During Ardern's relatively short time at the helm, New Zealand has faced a series of rare crises, including a <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/17/world/asia/new-zealand-shootings-police-response.html?action=click&module=RelatedLinks&pgtype=Article" target="_blank">rampage </a>on two Christchurch mosques by a white supremacist that killed more than 50 people, as well as a string of <a href="https://www.outsideonline.com/2411711/whakaari-white-island-new-zealand-volcano-eruption-2019" target="_blank">natural disasters.</a></p>
<p>Now with the coronavirus onslaught, New Zealand's <a href="https://www.outbreakobservatory.org/outbreakthursday-1/6/11/2020/new-zealand-declares-itself-covid-free" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">approach,</a> which Ardern described as "go hard, go early," has been extremely effective at squashing the curve. (It included limits on domestic travel and early closures of school and non-essential businesses.) As a result, New Zealand's <a href="https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">fatality rate</a> is 0.5 per 100,000 population, compared with 66 in the US, and 4 in neighboring Australia.</p>
<p>Even beyond the success of her pandemic policies, Ardern has been widely praised for her compassionate and forthright leadership style. "There's a high level of trust and confidence in her [Ardern] because of that empathy," New Zealand's former prime minister Helen Clark recently<a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/04/jacinda-ardern-new-zealand-leadership-coronavirus/610237/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"> told</a> <em>the Atlantic. </em>This resonates beyond what might be considered her natural support base of social progressives. </p>
<p><strong>The challenges ahead. </strong>While the victory of the Labour party is virtually assured at this point, New Zealand's incoming government will still face its share of significant challenges.</p>
<p><strong>Economic recovery. </strong>New Zealand is currently suffering its worst <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/business-54186359" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">recession </a>since the 1980s. Between April and June alone, GDP shrank by more than 12 percent, largely because of<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/jacinda-ardern-new-zealand-election-coronavirus/2020/10/11/65bad948-dad3-11ea-b4f1-25b762cdbbf4_story.html" target="_blank"> lost income for the tourism industry,</a> which generates $73.8 million (USD) <em>per day</em>. Steering the economic recovery while still waiting for a vaccine to be approved and distributed will not be an easy task.</p>
<p><strong>China, China, China. </strong>Managing the relationship with Beijing has proven difficult for New Zealand's government in recent years. Ardern, a progressive and vocal human rights advocate, has sought to find a balance between condemning China (back in July, Wellington announced that it was suspending its extradition treaty with Hong Kong because of Beijing's draconian <a href="https://www.gzeromedia.com/beijing-makes-its-move-on-hong-kong" target="_self">national security law</a>) without ruining relations with a country that is <a href="https://www.stats.govt.nz/news/china-top-trade-partner-for-2019" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">New Zealand's top trading partner. </a></p>
<p>Still, Ardern has faced accusations of cowering in the face of Beijing's aggression, including on<a href="https://www.hrw.org/news/2019/03/29/china-new-zealands-ardern-should-spotlight-xinjiang" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"> human rights</a> issues, as well as in response to claims that China has <a href="https://www.newsroom.co.nz/2018/10/17/280568/follow-the-money-and-the-influence" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">meddled </a>in New Zealand's own domestic affairs.</p>
<p><strong>Looking ahead:</strong> Ardern's strong leadership during the pandemic has paved the way for her to win a second term. But will she be able to make progress on issues that have so far eluded her, while also addressing a once-in-a-lifetime economic crisis?</p><p><br/><br/></p><p><br/><br/></p>
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