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Lee Jae-myung, the presidential candidate of the Democratic Party, speaks during a policy agreement ceremony with the Korean Confederation of Trade Unions at the Korea Press Center in Seoul, South Korea, on May 1, 2025.
South Korean court throws likely next president into jeopardy
South Korean opposition leader Lee Jae-myung had a rough day on Thursday. The Supreme Court sent the election law case against him back to a lower court, a move that could extend the country’s political chaos. Lee is the favorite to win the June 3 election, but he could be ousted from office if the court rules against him weeks, months, or even years down the line.
The legal circumstances are murky. If elected, Lee might claim that he’s constitutionally protected from prosecution. But the constitution only gives the sitting president immunity against indictment for crimes — other than treason, as impeached former President Yoon Suk-yeol knows all too well. Lee has already been indicted, setting up a contentious debate if the courts rule against him, according to Eurasia Group’s Jeremy Chan.
“The conservatives will be saying that he clearly committed this crime and was charged before he became president, and the punishment is that he’s not allowed to seek public office, which would invalidate this whole election,” says Chan. “The left will be saying that the highest law in the land says very specifically that the president should be immune from these types of charges, and should focus on governing.”
The conservative ruling party is still reeling from Yoon’s impeachment after his quixotic attempt at a military coup in December. Nonetheless, acting President Han Duck-soo resigned on Thursday to make way for his own bid for the top job, despite grim polling numbers. The Joong Ang Daily, a conservative paper, found 42% of voters are leaning toward Lee, while only 13% back Han.
Then again, given the sword of Damocles hanging over Lee, Han might be willing to roll the dice.
How should the media handle election night?
"It's very important that if the election is very close and it comes down to say those Midwestern states, which are going to count their ballots slow, that the message is, 'too early to call.'" Election law expert Rick Hasen weighs in on how the media – both traditional outlets and social media – should handle election night coverage. His conversation with Ian Bremmer is part of the latest episode of GZERO World.
Watch the episode: What could go wrong in the US election? Rick Hasen on nightmare scenarios & challenges
The threat of foreign interference to the US election
There's no doubt that foreign actors like Russia, China and Iran have already tried to interfere in the US election and may go even further than they did in 2016. But at the same time, there have been indications that some foreign leaders, like Vladimir Putin, may already be hedging their bets for a Biden victory. Election law expert Rick Hasen, however, believes that the threat of dirty tricks by foreign actors is still very real – an attack on the US power grid on Election Day, he says, is not outside of the realm of possibility. His conversation with Ian Bremmer is part of the latest episode of GZERO World.
Watch the episode: What could go wrong in the US election? Rick Hasen on nightmare scenarios & challenges
What could go wrong in the US election? Rick Hasen on nightmare scenarios & challenges
The end is nigh! With just days to go (hours, really) until voting concludes for the 2020 US election, many Americans are losing sleep over the various ways that things could go wrong on Election Day and in the days and weeks to follow (it may be time to retire that term "Election Day," given that most states won't finish their ballot counting on November 3rd). Ian Bremmer takes those fears head-on with election law expert Rick Hasen. They talk about how voter suppression, administrative incompetence, and/or dirty tricks by foreign actors could affect this year's election.
How administrative mistakes could disenfranchise voters
"No election is conducted perfectly, and elections have all kinds of problems.We're going to have more problems because we're running an election during a pandemic." Election law expert Rick Hasen cautions that both campaigns could misconstrue honest mistakes in the administration of this week's national election as nefarious acts. The integrity of the election, he warns, could be compromised by human error and the unprecedented challenges posed by a once-in-a-lifetime pandemic. Hasen's especially concerned about key states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan. His conversation with Ian Bremmer is part of the latest episode of GZERO World.
Watch the episode: What could go wrong in the US election? Rick Hasen on nightmare scenarios & challenges
Podcast: What Could Go Wrong in the US Election? Rick Hasen on Nightmare Scenarios and Challenges
Listen: The end is nigh! With just days to go (hours, really) until voting concludes for the 2020 US election, many Americans are losing sleep over the various ways that things could go wrong on Election Day and in the days and weeks to follow (it may be time to retire that term "Election Day," given that most states won't finish their ballot counting on November 3rd). Ian Bremmer takes those fears head-on with election law expert Rick Hasen. They talk about how voter suppression, administrative incompetence, and/or dirty tricks by foreign actors could affect this year's election.
Subscribe to the GZERO World Podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, or your preferred podcast platform to receive new episodes as soon as they're published.
Election Night: Key states to watch & record-shattering voter turnout
Jon Lieber, Managing Director for the United States at the Eurasia Group, shares his perspective on a special US election edition of US Politics In 60 Seconds:
So, we're about five days out from the election right now.
And the story of this week has been the remarkably steady polling lead for Joe Biden that he's had for months now. The other big story is the turnout, massive amounts of turnout. 100% of the 2016 vote already cast in Texas. 60% nationwide votes already cast. We are headed for record shattering turnout, could be around 155 million Americans voting.
On election night, what are we watching for?
First thing we're watching for is, does Trump win Florida? If he loses Florida, Florida counts quickly, we may know the results late in the night on Tuesday. If Trump loses Florida, then he really doesn't have a path. If he wins Florida, the next state we're going to be looking at is Pennsylvania. Right now, he's down by six votes, six points there. But if he has a lot of turnout for rural White voters, which is his base, it's possible he can turnout a victory. You also have the Supreme Court indicating that they're willing to re-look at Pennsylvania's election laws, even after the deadline because a state court in Pennsylvania said that votes in the mail that are received up to three days after election night could still be counted.
The Supreme Court may overturn that ruling. Another state to watch, Arizona. A Biden win there would be the end of the road for Donald Trump. They also count relatively quickly. They'll be finishing by 10:00 PM Eastern time when they start reporting. A lot of experience with vote by mail. Another thing to watch on Tuesday night is going to be the Senate results. A Biden presidency is effectively going to be stopped in its tracks if Republicans continue to hold the Senate.
So, it's really important for Democrats that they win, if they want to achieve anything next year. So, states that we're watching, Arizona, Colorado likely to flip to Democrats. And then they need two of Maine, North Carolina, Montana, and Iowa, all of which are very, very close races right now. Probably they pick up votes in Maine, seats in Maine, North Carolina and Iowa. And that will be enough for the majority.
The other big question is, do we know on Tuesday or how long after that day do we have to wait until we find out?
That's a real wild card. Florida, Arizona count quickly, like I said. Pennsylvania counts pretty slow. If there's a protracted battle and it comes down to Pennsylvania, you're going to see a lot of legal wrangling over those last few votes. However, Biden's lead there is pretty big right now. Six points in the polling averages, which makes it less likely you have a disputed outcome.