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What's next after MTG fails in bid to oust House Speaker Mike Johnson
Jon Lieber, head of Eurasia Group's coverage of political and policy developments in Washington, DC, shares his perspective on US politics.
This is what we're watching in US Politics this week: More turmoil in the House.
Georgia member Marjorie Taylor Greene, who's made quite a name for herself as an outspoken opponent of Republican leadership and a prolific fundraiser online, this week triggered another motion to vacate the speaker. The second this year. Only this time it was against Mike Johnson, the speaker who replaced Kevin McCarthy after he was removed during a motion to vacate earlier in the year.
The big change this time was that Democrats rallied to Johnson's side, defending him against the Republicans that tried to take him out and resoundingly defeating the measure, which really takes a lot of the wind out of the sails of future rebellions against the Republican speaker at least for the rest of 2024. Democrats and moderate Republicans are both tired of this level of chaos and want to defang the Republicans, who want to make life harder for the leader of the House of Representatives. That doesn't mean they're all allies now however. Mike Johnson is going to spend the rest of the year pushing very partisan measures across the floor of the House of Representatives in order to draw a contrast between Republicans and Democrats that voters understand when they go to cast a ballot in November. There will be a very small number of must pass legislation coming up.
Right now, Congress is working on reauthorization of the FAA. Later in the year, they're going to have to once again pass a budget bill to keep the government funded. Those will probably be very bipartisan measures. And one of the big ironies of the extreme polarization that's happening in the House, including within the Republican faction, is that the House is now effectively functioning more like the bipartisan Senate, which requires a supermajority of 60 senators, and which is always a bipartisan coalition in order to get almost anything done.
That's now the situation that the House finds itself in. The House is typically the significantly more partisan body. But because of the Republican dissenters against Johnson, they've turned the House into a much more bipartisan place, which really won't get much done this year. So one lesson from Marjorie Taylor Greene this week is that if she comes to the king, she better not miss, she came for the king and she missed. And now she's going to find herself on the outs with the Republicans, probably for the rest of the year.
Thanks for watching. Tune in next week.
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House of Representatives Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) speaks to reporters during a weekly press conference at Capitol Hill in Washington, DC, on April 16, 2024.
The toughest job in America?
It’s a bit surprising that anyone wants to be Speaker of the US House of Representatives. Six months ago, Speaker Kevin McCarthy was ousted by fellow Republicans after he dared to cooperate with House Democrats on funding the government. His replacement, Mike Johnson, now faces a battle to retain the gavel as he attempts to navigate between Democrats and an increasingly fractured GOP with rabble-rousers like Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene raising objections to foreign aid and threatening the Speaker’s job.
Facing threats from Republicans opposed to an aid package for Ukraine supported by the Biden administration, Johnson has cooked up a plan to “damn-the-torpedoes,” as Politico puts it, and go forward with the bill and two separate votes on additional aid packages: one for Israel in the wake of Iran’s attack and one for Taiwan. He also intends to pass two other bills (five in total), including one to increase border security and another that takes aim at Russia, Iran, and TikTok.
“My philosophy is you do the right thing and you let the chips fall where they may,” Johnson said about his plan to bring the bills to a vote this week. And fall they may as the MAGA crowd prepares reprisals, including meddlesome amendments or even a motion to vacate and boot Johnson from his position.
So now begins the battle between Johnson and hardliner Republicans, which in the next few days will shape not just the three bills in question and global geopolitics, but how Congress operates – or doesn’t.
The speaker struggle stands in contrast to a recent kerfuffle in Canada, where Speaker Anthony Rota resigned after his office welcomed a Ukrainian veteran who fought for the Nazis during World War II into the House of Commons. Rota was quickly replaced by Liberal member of Parliament Greg Fergus, and business in the Commons soon returned to its boisterous but mostly functional baseline.
Meet Mike Johnson, US House Speaker & DC's most Googled person
Jon Lieber, head of Eurasia Group's coverage of political and policy developments in Washington, DC, shares his perspective on US politics.
Who is Mike Johnson?
Mike Johnson became the most commonly Googled person in Washington, DC, this week when he won a surprising bid for the House speakership after Republicans failed to rally around multiple nominations from across their caucus once they removed former speaker Kevin McCarthy from his seat several weeks ago.
Johnson is a fourth-term congressman from Louisiana who is somewhere in the middle of the Republican conference, If you look at his voting record and ideological positions. He's got a lot of attention from the media for his role, both in trying to overturn the 2020 election results and also some of his comments on Social Security, Medicare, and abortion. But this is really a mainstream Republican House member who is going to struggle in his new role as speaker, having no leadership experience or any experience in passing bills whatsoever.
That lack of experience will be tested almost immediately with the upcoming November 17th government shutdown deadline and a bipartisan push to provide up to $106 billion in additional aid for Taiwan, Ukraine, and Israel, and, of course, securing the southern border. That package probably would pass the House and Senate overwhelmingly once it comes together out of the Senate. But Johnson himself is trying to leverage his role as speaker, along with his fellow conservatives, to get cuts and appropriate spending starting in 2024.
And that's going to be the big story of early next year, because what's likely to happen is that Johnson will punt government funding and take the threat of a government shutdown off the table into January or maybe even April. And make the rest of this year, this fight about foreign aid.
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- McCarthy is ousted as House speaker. What comes next? ›
- Paralyzed US House is an “absolute nightmare” - Sen. Chris Murphy ›
- House Republicans will vote yet again ›
- Biden's 2024 prospects slip even as Democrats make gains - GZERO Media ›
- What's next after MTG fails in bid to oust House Speaker Mike Johnson - GZERO Media ›
Newly elected Speaker of the House Mike Johnson (R-LA) addresses the U.S. House of Representatives after he was elected to be the new Speaker at the U.S. Capitol in Washington, U.S., October 25, 2023.
A speaker at last
As former US President Gerald Ford once told his fellow Americans, “Our long national nightmare is over.” On Wednesday, House Republicans united to elect Mike Johnson of Louisiana the new speaker of the House of Representatives.
How did Johnson bring Republicans together as several candidates before him could not? First, his inexperience is a plus. He’s never served in a senior leadership position in the House, the kind of post that forces choices that make enemies. In fact, now serving just his fourth two-year term, he is the least experienced speaker since John G. Carlisle, who served in the 1890s.
Second, unlike Tom Emmer, the most recent candidate to fall short, Johnson is an ally of Donald Trump. In fact, he was active among a group of House Republicans who sought to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election in Trump’s favor.
Finally, though Johnson has established a solid conservative voting record, more moderate Republicans may well have agreed to support him with the expectation that he can bargain in good faith with Democrats to prevent a government shutdown next month and advance bills to send aid to Israel and Ukraine.
The bad news for Johnson is that the post remains a precarious one. The rule remains that a single disgruntled Republican member can open a process to oust him, just as Matt Gaetz of Florida did with former speaker Kevin McCarthy. If four of the other 220 House Republicans agree, he will lose his job.
For now, Republicans are likely fed up with acrimonious closed-door meetings and failed votes. That will earn Johnson the grace period he needs to move legislation forward. But the essential problems of Republican disunity and the limits of the speaker’s sustainable power will continue.
Speakerless House shows weakness to US adversaries, says Rep. Mike Waltz
It's not a particularly comfortable moment to be a House Republican on Capitol Hill. Unable to agree on a Speaker, the House remains paralyzed and unable to do crucial work on a wide array of domestic and foreign policy priorities. Israel, of course, is at the top of that list. Republican Congressman Mike Waltz worries that the paralysis on Capitol Hill is playing right into the hands of America's adversaries.
"Our adversaries smell weakness in Washington right now," Rep. Waltz tells Ian Bremmer on an episode of GZERO World. "We need to get our act together and move the country forward." And yet, the House remains without a Speaker. What will it take to remove this logjam and get the House back to work?
Watch more on this episode: America's tightrope walk with the Israel-Hamas war
Catch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week at gzeromedia.com/gzeroworld or on US public television. Check local listings.
Paralyzed US House is an “absolute nightmare” - Sen. Chris Murphy
A House (of bickering Republicans) divided against itself, cannot stand. Forgive the redux of Abraham Lincoln's famous quote, but it seems particularly relevant in light of another week of total paralysis on Capitol Hill. Namely, within the House Republican caucus.
According to Democratic Senator Chris Murphy, who sat down with Ian Bremmer for an interview on GZERO World, the chaos in the House chamber due to Republicans' inability to nominate a House speaker may, in fact, be a feature, not a bug. "The House is just an absolute nightmare, and it's a really bad look for the United States. It weakens President Biden's credibility abroad."
"Republicans are weakening America and weakening people's faith in government, but it has national security consequences when people don't know whether, even the things we have perfect consensus on, like support for Israel, can actually get a vote and pass."
Watch more on this episode: America's tightrope walk with the Israel-Hamas war
Catch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week at gzeromedia.com/gzeroworld or on US public television. Check local listings.
- Jordan’s shot for the speaker, close to no avail ›
- McCarthy is ousted as House speaker. What comes next? ›
- GOP-led US House will get tougher on China — but not as much as you'd think ›
- Paralyzed US House can’t even wave to Israel ›
- Meet Mike Johnson, US House Speaker & DC's most Googled person - GZERO Media ›
Speaker of the House of Representatives Pro Tem Patrick McHenry (Republican of North Carolina), left, talks with House Speaker nominee United States Representative Jim Jordan (Republican of Ohio) in the moments prior to the vote for Speaker of the House of Representatives, at the U.S. Capitol in Washington, DC, Wednesday, October 18, 2023. The House of Representatives has been without speaker since Speaker of the United States House of Representatives Kevin McCarthy (Republican of California) was ousted from the speakership on October 4, 2023, during a vote initiated by United States Representative Matt Gaetz (Republican of Florida), and led by a small group of fellow Republicans.
Are Republicans giving up on electing a speaker?
Having failed to win the backing of the 217 Republican members he needed to become speaker of the US House of Representatives in two rounds of voting, Jim Jordan of Ohio announced Thursday morning that he would not call for a third vote. He did not, however, withdraw his name from future consideration. For now, he remains the official Republican Party nominee for speaker.
Jordan then endorsed a plan to empower temporary speaker Patrick McHenry of North Carolina to reopen the House to advance its most urgent business through Jan. 3, 2024. The need to respond to the Israel crisis and to bargain with Democrats to avoid yet another threatened government shutdown next month has created some support for this plan.
Yet, there isn’t yet enough support from GOP members to advance this plan either – it requires a simple majority of House members – and faced with the reality they might have to turn to Democrats for the votes they need, they abandoned the plan to empower McHenry. Jordan then said he would push for another vote on his own candidacy, but without saying when.
For now, the GOP chaos of the past three weeks leaves little reason for optimism that Republicans will unify behind any speaker candidate anytime soon.
This is the longest period that political divisions have left the House of Representatives without a speaker since debates over slavery stopped House business in 1856.
Oct 18, 2023; Washington, DC, USA; Rep. Jim Jordan, R-Ohio is seen on the House floor as lawmakers hold a second vote to elect a new speaker in Washington.
The road ahead for House Republicans
With the current balance of power in the US House of Representatives, no Republican can become speaker without winning at least 217 of the party’s 221 members. Jim Jordan of Ohio became the latest to give it a shot, but he fell short by 20 votes on Tuesday and then by 22 votes on Wednesday.
These numbers suggest he’s not going to get there. Some Republicans who voted for others fear hardliner Jordan would endanger their chances of winning reelection in moderate districts. Some dislike Jordan personally. There’s also probably some overlap between these two groups. These are the lawmakers who have blocked Jordan’s path.
Given the fates of ousted Speaker Kevin McCarthy of California and failed wannabe replacement Steve Scalise of Louisiana, it appears no one can unite this GOP House caucus. At least for now.
There is an alternative. Once again, the need to respond to the Israel crisis and to bargain with Democrats to avoid yet another threatened government shutdown next month has reignited talk that Patrick McHenry of North Carolina, now acting as the temporary speaker, will be given the job for some set period (perhaps one to three months) while Republicans try again to work out their differences.