We have updated our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use for Eurasia Group and its affiliates, including GZERO Media, to clarify the types of data we collect, how we collect it, how we use data and with whom we share data. By using our website you consent to our Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy, including the transfer of your personal data to the United States from your country of residence, and our use of cookies described in our Cookie Policy.
{{ subpage.title }}
FILE PHOTO: U.S. House Judiciary Committee Chairman Jim Jordan (R-OH) sits before a hearing of the House Judiciary Committee on Capitol Hill in Washington, U.S. June 21, 2023.
Russia enters Biden impeachment fray
The “most corroborating evidence” for impeaching President Joe Biden came from a highly credible, human source, Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH) said in January. This week, a memo filed by the US Department of Justice claims that the source has “extensive foreign ties” with an all too familiar election meddler.
Veteran informant Alexander Smirnov claimed to be in touch with four different Russian intelligence officials as recently as December, two of which are “heads of the entities they represent.” Prosecutors say Smirnov aimed to spread misinformation and “lies that could impact US elections.”
After months of investigating, the House has been unable to uncover additional bombshell evidence against Biden. So, will a crack in the central argument driving the inquiry slow the impeachment efforts ahead of November’s election? Likely not. The president’s brother still had to testify yesterday, and his son is set to testify next week.
From the right: A House Judiciary Committee spokesperson says, “Nothing has changed. We have plenty of evidence that shows impeachable conduct.”
From the left: Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-MD) says, “I hope it will be the final chapter of this ludicrous wild goose chase.”
From GZERO: Smirnov should steer clear of open windows.
Speakerless House shows weakness to US adversaries, says Rep. Mike Waltz
It's not a particularly comfortable moment to be a House Republican on Capitol Hill. Unable to agree on a Speaker, the House remains paralyzed and unable to do crucial work on a wide array of domestic and foreign policy priorities. Israel, of course, is at the top of that list. Republican Congressman Mike Waltz worries that the paralysis on Capitol Hill is playing right into the hands of America's adversaries.
"Our adversaries smell weakness in Washington right now," Rep. Waltz tells Ian Bremmer on an episode of GZERO World. "We need to get our act together and move the country forward." And yet, the House remains without a Speaker. What will it take to remove this logjam and get the House back to work?
Watch more on this episode: America's tightrope walk with the Israel-Hamas war
Catch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week at gzeromedia.com/gzeroworld or on US public television. Check local listings.
Speaker of the House of Representatives Pro Tem Patrick McHenry (Republican of North Carolina), left, talks with House Speaker nominee United States Representative Jim Jordan (Republican of Ohio) in the moments prior to the vote for Speaker of the House of Representatives, at the U.S. Capitol in Washington, DC, Wednesday, October 18, 2023. The House of Representatives has been without speaker since Speaker of the United States House of Representatives Kevin McCarthy (Republican of California) was ousted from the speakership on October 4, 2023, during a vote initiated by United States Representative Matt Gaetz (Republican of Florida), and led by a small group of fellow Republicans.
Are Republicans giving up on electing a speaker?
Having failed to win the backing of the 217 Republican members he needed to become speaker of the US House of Representatives in two rounds of voting, Jim Jordan of Ohio announced Thursday morning that he would not call for a third vote. He did not, however, withdraw his name from future consideration. For now, he remains the official Republican Party nominee for speaker.
Jordan then endorsed a plan to empower temporary speaker Patrick McHenry of North Carolina to reopen the House to advance its most urgent business through Jan. 3, 2024. The need to respond to the Israel crisis and to bargain with Democrats to avoid yet another threatened government shutdown next month has created some support for this plan.
Yet, there isn’t yet enough support from GOP members to advance this plan either – it requires a simple majority of House members – and faced with the reality they might have to turn to Democrats for the votes they need, they abandoned the plan to empower McHenry. Jordan then said he would push for another vote on his own candidacy, but without saying when.
For now, the GOP chaos of the past three weeks leaves little reason for optimism that Republicans will unify behind any speaker candidate anytime soon.
This is the longest period that political divisions have left the House of Representatives without a speaker since debates over slavery stopped House business in 1856.
Oct 18, 2023; Washington, DC, USA; Rep. Jim Jordan, R-Ohio is seen on the House floor as lawmakers hold a second vote to elect a new speaker in Washington.
The road ahead for House Republicans
With the current balance of power in the US House of Representatives, no Republican can become speaker without winning at least 217 of the party’s 221 members. Jim Jordan of Ohio became the latest to give it a shot, but he fell short by 20 votes on Tuesday and then by 22 votes on Wednesday.
These numbers suggest he’s not going to get there. Some Republicans who voted for others fear hardliner Jordan would endanger their chances of winning reelection in moderate districts. Some dislike Jordan personally. There’s also probably some overlap between these two groups. These are the lawmakers who have blocked Jordan’s path.
Given the fates of ousted Speaker Kevin McCarthy of California and failed wannabe replacement Steve Scalise of Louisiana, it appears no one can unite this GOP House caucus. At least for now.
There is an alternative. Once again, the need to respond to the Israel crisis and to bargain with Democrats to avoid yet another threatened government shutdown next month has reignited talk that Patrick McHenry of North Carolina, now acting as the temporary speaker, will be given the job for some set period (perhaps one to three months) while Republicans try again to work out their differences.Rep. Jim Jordan, R-Ohio, came up short in his bid to win the House Speaker post on Tuesday.
Jordan’s shot for the speaker, close to no avail
One vote down, co-founder of the Freedom Caucus Jim Jordan is still 17 votes shy of the 217 votes needed to become the next speaker of the House of Representatives.
As Jordan calls for another vote, all eyes are on the 20 holdouts, many of whom are from swing districts or the House Appropriations Committee in charge of spending bills – which Jordan has voted for only 16% of the time since 2011.
Jordan and his far-right allies have gotten him this far by sheer force. Making up a minority in the House, they have still managed to oust former Speaker Kevin McCarthy, topple Steve Scalise – the party’s handpicked successor – in just a day, and have taken to social media to blast the Republicans opposing Jordan.
Jordan’s fight for the speakership exemplifies the state of the GOP, where members of each of the “Five Families” – a mafia reference that has become Republican shorthand for the various factions in the party – are more loyal to each other and their followers than the party or its leadership.
But as the clock ticks on in a speakerless House, Republicans cannot address the war in Gaza while looking weak ahead of upcoming budget fights. The remaining holdouts undoubtedly feel the mounting pressure to get the party back to work, which in the end, may be a stronger reason to change their vote than any far-right pressure campaign ever could be.
Round No. 2 begins at 11 am Wednesday.
Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH) presides over the House Judiciary Committee
Speaker race: Jordan might get there
As the week began, it seemed unlikely Jim Jordan of Ohio, the Republican nominee for Speaker of the House, could win the near unanimous support within his party he needed to win the job. But on Monday, his fortunes appeared to shift.
Endorsements from three crucial members – Mike Rogers of Alabama, Ann Wagner of Missouri and Ken Calvert of California – sharply raised expectations that House Republicans can get to yes and end their crisis.
Those are not the only three converts Jordan appears to have won, but they’re especially significant because they’re influential lawmakers that most analysts considered beyond the reach of Jordan, a man known mainly as a partisan flamethrower and loyal Donald Trump lieutenant. Rogers and Calvert, in particular, were thought to be holding out for larger commitments on defense spending.
Two big questions remain. Can Jordan win over all but four of the 221 Republican members? That’s still not a done deal as of this writing. And what did Jordan promise Rogers, Wagner, Calvert and others in exchange for their unexpected backing?
The next vote for speaker is set to take place Tuesday at noon. Jordan will continue to campaign up to and through the vote. Even if he wins, he’ll find himself trying to lead an increasingly fractious Republican majority with much more infighting to come. The problem that brought down former Speaker Kevin McCarthy remains: A single disgruntled Republican can bring House business to a halt.
Rep. Jim Jordan, R-Ohio, speaks to reporters after departing from a GOP caucus meeting working to formally elect a new speaker of the House.
Speaker snafu hobbles House
The US House of Representatives has now gone 14 days without an elected speaker. After Republican Steve Scalise of Louisiana abandoned his bid due to lack of support, Jim Jordan of Ohio became the second Republican nominated in the past week to run for House speaker, beating Rep. Austin Scott, of Georgia, in a closed-door vote on Friday. Democrats, meanwhile, support House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, of New York.
A vote may be held on Tuesday, but Jordan is not expected to have enough support to take the gavel. With Republicans deadlocked for two weeks, it now appears that moderates are seeking a bipartisan deal – one that Jeffries says would aim to prevent "extremists" from dictating the House agenda.
A group of centrist Democrats have also said they would support temporarily expanding the authority of Speaker Pro Tempore Patrick McHenry, R-N.C., which would allow the chamber to take up urgent bills, including government funding and foreign aid.
Whoever does end up with the gavel will find it difficult to get Congress to agree on a full-year funding deal, and failure to do so, according to the June debt limit agreement, will dictate set spending cuts.
"The only clear lesson of the speaker's race,” says Clayton Allen, US director for Eurasia Group, “is that the internal divisions within the Republican conference mean that whoever wins will be drastically limited in their ability to govern over the next 15 months. Jordan’s decision to push forward on a floor vote seems unlikely to succeed, but even if a more moderate choice ends up in the speaker's chair, Jordan's band of conservative backers will make it hard to negotiate a deal that avoids triggering the 1% across-the-board cuts next year.”
U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin speaks at a joint press conference with South Korean Defense Minister Lee Jong-sup in Seoul, South Korea, 31 January 2023.
What We’re Watching: Pentagon leak fallout, Manhattan DA sues House Republicans, new source of tension in Ethiopia
The fog of leaks
Fallout continues from the leak of secret US documents related to the war in Ukraine. The leaked info suggests that Egypt, one of the world’s largest recipients of US military aid, planned to secretly supply Russia with tens of thousands of rockets for use in Ukraine and that the United Arab Emirates, also a key US ally, would help Russia work against US and UK intelligence. Egypt and the UAE say these reports are false.
Another document suggests that US eavesdropping on its ally South Korea indicated that aides to South Korea’s president had discussed sending artillery shells to the US or Poland for use by Ukraine, a move that would violate South Korea’s policy of refusing to export weapons to any country at war.
US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin has claimed that “quite a few of the documents in question were fabricated,” but he isn’t saying what’s true and what isn’t. The world may never know who leaked these documents, why they were leaked, and which parts of them, if any, were entirely fabricated or partially altered. But the headaches for those who must now repair damaged international relationships are real, and the domestic political fallout for leaders of some of these countries, particularly South Korea, will continue.
Manhattan DA sues House Republicans
Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg announced Tuesday that he’s suing House Republicans for allegedly interfering in the criminal case against former President Donald Trump.
Bragg’s lawsuit is focused on the actions of Congressman Jim Jordan of Ohio, who chairs the House Judiciary Committee. In the 50-page suit, Bragg accuses Jordan of “a transparent campaign to intimidate and attack” the district attorney as his office pursues criminal charges against the former president for allegedly breaking campaign finance laws by making a hush-money payment to a porn star.
House Republicans have demanded that Bragg’s office hand over documents and testimony related to the Trump case, insisting that the committee has oversight rights. Crucially, Jordan had issued a subpoena for Mark F. Pomerantz to deliver a closed-door deposition. Pomerantz is a former assistant DA who left his job last year after Bragg reportedly opposed a wider tax-and-insurance fraud prosecution of Trump, which Pomerantz favored.
Bragg has sued to block the subpoena saying it amounts to “an unconstitutional attempt to undermine an ongoing New York felony criminal prosecution and investigation.”
Whatever happens, as this case makes its way through the courts, Jordan will be delayed in getting his hands on the documents and testimony he is seeking.
Fresh unrest hits Ethiopia
For almost a week now, protests have raged in the Ethiopian region of Amhara over a federal government plan to absorb local security forces into the national army.
The tensions are only the latest example of how fragmented Africa’s second most populous country has become. It was just months ago that the government finally reached a peace deal with separatist militants from the region of Tigray, ending a gruesome civil war that had displaced millions.
In that conflict, as it happens, Amhara’s local forces fought alongside the government, pursuing long-standing grievances and territorial claims against their Tigrayan neighbors.
Now Ethiopian PM Abiy Ahmed wants to eliminate all regional forces of that kind. For Abiy, it’s necessary to strengthen national unity. He won’t back down, he says, even if a “price needs to be paid.” But the Amharas worry that without those forces, they’ll be vulnerable to fresh attacks from other ethnic groups or the federal government itself.
That puts Abiy in a familiar bind. Five years after popular protests swept him to power with a mandate to liberalize Ethiopia’s political system, he is still struggling to master the country’s ferocious ethnic and regional rivalries.