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Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas appoints Mohammad Mustafa as prime minister of the Palestinian Authority (PA), in Ramallah, in the Israeli-occupied West Bank March 14, 2024 in this handout image.
Who is Muhammad Mustafa?
Mahmoud Abbas, the 88-year-old president of the widely unpopular Palestinian Authority, on Thursday named Muhammad Mustafa as the authority’s prime minister. Given Abbas’s age, and the need for a successor as leader of the PA who can offer some credible alternative to Hamas as the political voice of Palestinians, Mustafa will now become the subject of wide international scrutiny.
So, who is he? Mustafa is a trained economist with a degree from George Washington University in Washington, DC. His current job is head of the Palestine Investment Fund, the Palestinian Territories’ sovereign development fund. He has also served as the PA’s economy minister and deputy prime minister.
More to the point, Mustafa is a longtime PA insider who owes his career and standing to Abbas. For those hoping the aging president would choose a dynamic, independent-minded leader as PM who might lead in a bold new direction, Mustafa is an unpopular choice – one that signals Abbas intends to remain the dominant voice in the PA for as long as he can.
Pro-Palestinian protesters demonstrate outside the International Court of Justice (ICJ) on the day of a public hearing to allow parties to give their views on the legal consequences of Israel's occupation of the Palestinian territories before eventually issuing a non-binding legal opinion, in The Hague, Netherlands, February 19, 2024.
Israeli occupation on trial at ICJ
Palestinian Authority Foreign Affairs Minister Riyad al-Maliki on Monday delivered an opening statement before the International Court of Justice at the Hague in a case about Israel’s occupation of Palestinian Territories since 1967. The UN-backed court will hear from more than 50 countries and three multinational organizations – the largest case in the ICJ’s history – but a decision could take months, and it would be non-binding.
This is separate from South Africa’s case alleging Israel is committing genocide in Gaza.
Quick history: In the aftermath of Israel’s war of independence in 1948, Egypt occupied Gaza while the West Bank and East Jerusalem fell under Jordanian control. However, when Israel launched preemptive strikes against an imminent Egyptian invasion in 1967, it responded to Jordanian shelling by pushing Amman’s forces back across the Jordan River. Israel has occupied the West Bank and East Jerusalem ever since, while Israeli settlers have inhabited large portions of each territory (see our explainer here). Israel also captured Gaza and the Sinai desert from Egypt but withdrew all troops and settlers first from Sinai by 1982 and then from Gaza in 2005.
The arguments? Palestinians argue that the occupation undermines their self-determination, that Israeli policy amounts to apartheid, and that the occupation is illegal. Tuesday’s session will be opened by South Africa, a strong Palestinian advocate, followed by delegates from nine other countries including Chile, which has the largest Palestinian population outside the Middle East.
Israel said in a written argument that the question before the court is prejudiced and an opinion would be “harmful” to a resolution, but it will not directly participate in the proceedings. Its strongest ally, the United States, is slated to speak on Wednesday.
Will anything come of it? The short answer is no. Israel will be free to ignore any ICJ decision. That said, the exercise is already illustrating Israel’s near-total isolation on the global stage – and we’re watching for how the Biden administration threads a tricky needle of public opinion at home. The president is facing opposition from the left wing of his own party as well as Muslim voters in the key swing state of Michigan for what they see as an overly deferential position toward Israel’s war in Gaza.Saudi Ambassador Nayef al-Sudairi with Palestinian Foreign Minister Riyad al-Maliki in Ramallah.
Saudi Arabia tries to reassure the Palestinians – but of what?
Saudi Arabia’s first envoy to the Palestinian Authority, Nayef al-Sudairi, is currently visiting the West Bank, where he’s meeting with Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas. Al-Sudairi is also expected to visit the Al-Aqsa Mosque, which Jews call the Temple Mount, which would mark the first visit of a Saudi official to East Jerusalem since Israel seized the territory in a 1967 war.
Why now? Al-Sudairi, who is also Saudi’s ambassador to Jordan, comes as Riyadh and Jerusalem are reportedly inching closer toward a diplomatic normalization deal – a huge development after Israel normalized ties with the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Morocco in recent years.
What do the Saudis want? While Riyadh, custodian of two of the holiest sites in Islam, is attempting to show that it remains committed to the Palestinian cause, it is more concerned about getting Washington’s assistance to build a civilian nuclear program and other security guarantees from Uncle Joe. The Biden administration says these concessions would be contingent on Saudi normalization with Israel.
The view from the Palestinian camp is that a thaw between Israel and Saudi is a betrayal of the Palestinians and a departure from the Saudis’ previous position that they wouldn’t embrace Israel until the Palestinian issue was settled. Riyadh, for its part, had previously said that this would have to include Israel's withdrawal from some areas, such as the West Bank, East Jerusalem and the Golan Heights.
For now, there’s every indication that Riyadh is moving full steam ahead: In a rare English-language interview last week, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman said he wants to see “a good life for the Palestinians,” but he stopped short of saying that Palestinian statehood was linked to ongoing normalization efforts with Israel.
President Mahmoud Abbas gestures during a meeting in Ramallah.
Palestinian leader to make rare visit to Jenin
Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas traveled to Jenin today for the first time in over a decade. Though the PA — formed after the Oslo Accords — is technically the chief security and administrative authority in the northern West Bank city, Abbas’ men have lost control of parts of the West Bank, including Jenin, which is now run by semi-autonomous rival military groups.
Why go now? Abbas’ trip comes a week after Israel conducted one of its most intense military raids in the West Bank in two decades, aimed at rooting out a new cohort of militants and their vast cache of weapons and military infrastructure.
Given that Israel and the PA are close security partners — meaning that Abbas’ men often clamp down on potential terror threats emanating from PA-governed cities — the scope of the operation in Jenin, where Israel conducted rare air raids, was an embarrassing sign of Abbas’ dwindling power and unpopularity.
Polling of the Palestinian electorate suggests that the PA is broadly seen as corrupt, too deferential to Israel, and failing to deliver for the Palestinian people. Indeed, 80% of those polled want Abbas to resign. (The 87-year-old Abbas has also refused to hold elections in the West Bank for over 15 years.)
Crucially, this rare visit comes amid growing reports that Hamas, which rules the Gaza Strip and is deemed a terror group by the US, is vying to take over parts of the West Bank, including Jenin. The last time the two Palestinian groups fought it out for control of Gaza in 2007, things got very, very messy …
Palestinian Authority chief Mahmoud Abbas meets with Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the first Arab-Chinese summit in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.
Can China broker another Mideast rapprochement?
Mahmoud Abbas, the octogenarian head of the Palestinian Authority, doesn’t travel much these days. But this week he will head to China for a three-day visit and meet with President Xi Jinping.
Abbas’ trip comes after China’s Foreign Minister Qin Gang recently told his Israeli and Palestinian counterparts that Beijing is ready to broker Israeli-Palestinian peace talks that have been on ice for almost a decade.
For China, hosting Abbas is a low-stakes way to project itself further as a rising Middle East powerbroker after Beijing (surprisingly) brokered a détente between archrivals Iran and Saudi Arabia earlier this year. The Chinese overture itself is less about backing Abbas and the Palestinian cause, and more about Beijing trying to send a message to Washington, yet again, that the US is no longer the key influence peddler in the region.
Still, there is more performance than substance behind this play. For one thing, the US is Israel’s closest — and most important — ally, and the Israelis would never allow Beijing to circumvent Washington as the main arbiter between Ramallah and Jerusalem.
What’s more, Abbas, who was elected to a four-year term in 2005 and has refused to hold elections, is a wildly unpopular figure at home, while the Palestinian Authority has an extremely weak mandate as other factions vie for power in the West Bank. Indeed, he is hardly in a prime position to conduct major diplomacy on behalf of the Palestinian people.
Israeli forces stand near the scene of a shooting attack in Neve Yaacov, Jerusalem
Deadly attack at Jerusalem synagogue
A Palestinian gunman opened fire near a synagogue in east Jerusalem on Friday night, killing seven Israelis, including a 70-year-old woman, and wounding three. The assailant was shot dead by police. The attack, one of the deadliest within Israel in recent years, punctuated a week of rising violence and came just a day after seven Palestinian gunmen and two civilians were killed during an Israeli Defense Forces raid in the West Bank refugee camp of Jenin, which targeted suspected terrorists. Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad vowed revenge, and subsequent rocket launches from the Gaza Strip were followed by limited Israeli strikes.
Will Palestinians get to vote?
The last time Palestinians went to the polls was in 2006, after Mahmoud Abbas replaced longtime Fatah stalwart Yasser Arafat as president of the Palestinian Authority.But factional infighting between Fatah and Hamas (designated a terror group by the US and EU) brought the Palestinians to the "brink of civil war," Abbas said at the time. Discord over power, ideology and vision led to a bloody battle that saw Fatah expelled to the West Bank in 2007, where it has ruled ever since, while Hamas maintains power in the overcrowded Gaza Strip.
Now, some 15 years later, Palestinians are set to vote in legislative elections next month. But intra-Palestinian cracks are again surfacing, suggesting that the long-anticipated vote could be scrapped. If Abbas' Fatah faction decides not to hold the vote, which has been delayed since 2010, the implications could be calamitous.
What's at stake? Abbas — who at 85 has led the Fatah-controlled Palestinian Authority for 16 years — does not want to give up his job or his party's grip on the West Bank. But Abbas' electoral prospects have been undermined in recent months by breakaway Fatah factions, particularly the one headed by jailed militant Marwan Barghouti, who is extremely popular with Palestinian voters. (In a recent poll, 28 percent of voters said they would vote for Barghouti's list, compared to just 22 percent for Abbas' once-dominant Fatah.)
Importantly, the carving up of support among Fatah-associated candidates would give a massive boost to Hamas, which, according to polls, would get 27 percent of votes across the West Bank and Gaza, to become the biggest party in parliament. Meanwhile, 57 percent of Palestinians in both areas say they would support a joint Fatah-Hamas list. For now, however, that option seems extremely unlikely given how acrimonious the relationship is.
Abbas is testing the waters. Fearful of political defeat, Abbas, who has a close albeit testy working relationship with Israel's security apparatus, is testing his options. In recent days, he has said that the upcoming polls might be delayed for an unspecified period of time, because Israel is not giving Palestinians in East Jerusalem enough access to voting booths. (The 1993 Oslo Accords stipulate that some Palestinians can vote at designated Jerusalem post offices; most will have to vote in the West Bank. Abbas and his loyalists say this will disenfranchise East-Jerusalem based voters.)
But critics say that Abbas is manufacturing a political crisis and using Israel's failure to formally facilitate the voting process as a pretext to annul the vote to avoid defeat.
What do Palestinian voters want? Surveys show that the top four priorities for Palestinian voters are the unification of the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, boosting the economy, tackling corruption and removing the blockade of Gaza. Abbas knows that he is extremely unpopular, and that his government is oft-associated with cronyism and graft (some 84 percent of Palestinians in both enclaves say that PA institutions are corrupt). While voters don't think that Hamas will do a better job of improving their economic prospects, they do trust the militant group (more than the PA) to tackle endemic corruption.
Igniting Hamas' wrath. Sending a flurry of rockets into Israel in recent days, an emboldened Hamas made it clear to both the PA and Israeli leadership that there would be serious consequences if next month's vote were to be scrapped. Gazan sources also told a Lebanese outlet that relevant players should prepare for an uptick in violence if the polls don't go ahead.
Israel's position. It's still unclear, however, what Israel's official position is on the vote, and how much power it has to affect internal Palestinian politicking anyway. But this is all taking place against the backdrop of a violence-filled week in Jerusalem, where Arab residents — angry at restrictions placed on access to the Old City during Ramadan — beat ultra-Orthodox Jews and uploaded videos of the attacks to TikTok. In response, right-wing Jewish extremist groups marched through the city chanting "Death to Arabs." While recent nights were quieter, the situation is combustible, with many fearing that the clashes, so far confined to Jerusalem, could spread to the Gaza Strip and the West Bank — and even elsewhere in the Muslim world, given the symbolic status of Jerusalem.
Looking ahead. International and regional heavyweights like the EU and Egypt are lobbying Israel to facilitate mass voting throughout East Jerusalem. But it seems like Abbas, not wanting to relinquish power, may have already made up his mind to shut down the vote and roll the dice.
Visitors look at Chinese Air Force fighter jets at a military base in Hangzhou.
What We’re Watching: China targets Taiwan, Palestinian election heats up, Russia-Ukraine border tensions
Chinese jets swarm Taiwan: This week, multiple Chinese warplanes penetrated Taiwan's airspace. While Beijing does this quite often to flex its muscles, this time the jets took a different route, and one even got close to the Japanese island of Yonaguni, located less than 70 miles (113 kilometers) north of Taiwan. The maneuvers have been interpreted by experts as a direct warning from the Chinese to Japan not to overplay its hand. (It's worth noting that Tokyo could get dragged into a US conflict with China over Taiwan because, like Taiwan, it has a mutual defense treaty with the US.) More broadly, the flight patterns also indicate that China could surround Taiwan on three sides in an eventual invasion, cutting off the territory from US and Japanese military support. All this comes as the Biden administration has expressed serious concern (paywall) that Beijing is indeed planning to invade Taiwan in the very near term. With US-China relations getting hot, more rumblings over an invasion of Taiwan will surely turn the temperature even higher.
Palestinians' election shake-up: Next month, the Palestinian Authority will hold its first elections since 2006 — and things have started to get very interesting. Palestinian militant Marwan Barghouti, a longtime PA member who is serving multiple life sentences for murdering Israelis, plans to challenge longtime leader Mahmoud Abbas for the presidency. Abbas — who at 85 has led the Fatah-controlled Palestinian Authority for 16 years and postponed elections in the past for fear of losing — is now facing formidable opposition from two former Fatah veterans: Barghouti, who is extremely popular with Palestinian voters, and Mahmoud Dahlan, a former PA security chief who was exiled after a fierce dispute with the current leadership (Dahlan has been banned from running, but says he will persevere). While Barghouti is doing well in the polls, analysts say that his split with Abbas could help the rival Hamas militant group, which rules the Gaza Strip with an iron fist. Legislative elections are currently scheduled for May 22 and presidential polls for July 31. When elections were last held, a PA-Hamas dispute turned bloody, resulting in an enduring split in Palestinian leadership. What will happen this time?
Russian troops on Ukraine's doorstep: As fighting surged between Russian-backed separatists and government forces in eastern Ukraine this week, Moscow deployed several thousand of its own troops to the Ukrainian border, raising fears that the low-level conflict could get much uglier. The uptick in violence leaves a ceasefire from last summer in tatters. It's now been seven years since Ukrainian protesters ousted a pro-Moscow president, leading Russia to annex Crimea and foment a civil war that brought pro-Moscow separatists to power in two Ukrainian provinces along the Russian border. Peace talks between the two sides have repeatedly broken down over the question of who should do what first: Ukraine wants control over its border, while Russia wants Kyiv to devolve significant power to the separatists and legitimize them with elections. The Russians say their recent troop movements are nothing to worry about and no one else's business, but the Pentagon now considers the uptick in violence an "imminent crisis."