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Iran thrives on Arab "misery," says expert Karim Sadjadpour
Whether it's Hamas in Gaza or Hezbollah in Lebanon or the Houthis in Yemen, how much control does Iran have over its proxy forces? According to Iran expert at the Carnegie Endowment for Peace, Karim Sadjadpour, Iran tends not to micromanage these groups. Iran may not typically give direct, day-to-day instructions but instead defer to these leaders to make their own decisions. However, Sadjadpour adds, on a broader level, Iran wields significant influence as they are often the primary source of funding and military support for these groups.
More importantly, when it comes to the people under the control of these proxy forces, whether they be Palestinian, Iraqi, Syrian, Yemeni or Lebanese, Iran doesn't care about their wellbeing. Sadjadpour emphasizes that we must distinguish between Iran being anti-Israel and genuinely pro-Palestinian, for instance. He recalls a conversation with an Iranian official who suggested that Iran benefits from the instability and conflict in the region, as it furthers their interests.
"Iran really benefits from the misery of these populations and these failing states, and they don't want to see these populations become prosperous" Sadjadpour tells Ian Bremmer in the latest episode of GZERO World. " And so in some ways, the more these populations experience conflict, whether it's, you know, conflict amongst themselves or direct conflict with Israel, Iran has tended to benefit from the despair of these Arab populations."
Watch the full interview: What’s Iran’s next move?
Catch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week at gzeromedia.com/gzeroworld or on US public television. Check local listings.
- What we know (and don't know) about Iran's role in the Israel-Hamas war ›
- US braces for Iran-backed blowback ›
- Fight between US and Iran’s proxies reaches boiling point ›
- Podcast: Iran's role in the Gaza war: is escalation inevitable? ›
- What’s Iran’s next move? ›
- US-Iran tensions complicate Biden's Middle East strategy - GZERO Media ›
Israel's war in Gaza has emboldened Iran, says Karim Sadjadpour
Since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, Iran's stance towards Israel and its Western allies has been nothing if not consistent, says Iran expert Karim Sadjadpour. In an extensive interview with Ian Bremmer for GZERO World, Sadjadpour emphasizes that Iran has consistently invested substantial resources in supporting militant groups like Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and Hezbollah in an effort to undermine Israel. It's a continuation of Iran's long-term strategy to challenge the existence of Israel.
"Iran wants to defeat the US-led world order, evict the United States from the Middle East, and replace Israel with Palestine. There's perhaps been no government with a more consistent and enduring grand strategy than the Islamic Republic of Iran."
Israel's war with Gaza has only emboldened Iran, Sadjadpour argues. But it's not yet clear whether Iran will be so emboldened as to engage in an overt conflict with Israel or the United States.
Watch the full interview: What’s Iran’s next move?
Catch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week at gzeromedia.com/gzeroworld or on US public television. Check local listings.
What’s Iran’s next move?
Remember that famous line from Bill Clinton’s campaign staffer James Carville back in 1992?: “It’s the economy, stupid!” As Israel’s war with Hamas escalates, it brings to mind—in a nasally Louisiana accent—the phrase “It’s Iran, stupid.”
Because, whether it’s the dizzying arsenal of Hezbollah rockets in southern Lebanon pointed at Israel, or the Houthi drones targeting Israel from Yemen, or the Iranian Revolutionary Guard facilities in Eastern Syria-, one thing is clear: all roads lead back to the Ayatollah. And yet, there’s a big difference between skirmishes with proxy forces and an all-out US/Israel war with Iran.
"Iran feels particularly emboldened at the moment," says Iran expert Karim Sadjadpour, Senior Fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for Peace, who joins Ian Bremmer on GZERO World. "Whether it's going after Israel via proxies or going after the US via their proxies. And they may be difficult to deter because they may either correctly read the situation that the US is not interested in a conflict, or they may misread it. And that could lead us to more direct conflict with Iran."
So how close is Iran to waging war on Israel, and its Western allies? Iran is, after all, a rogue nation well on its way to developing a nuclear weapon. And that’s an escalation that no one, including Iranian leadership, wants to see happen.
Catch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week at gzeromedia.com/gzeroworld or on US public television. Check local listings.
- Israel at war: How will regional actors respond? ›
- Ian Explains: How Israel & Iran went from friends to enemies ›
- US braces for Iran-backed blowback ›
- What we know (and don't know) about Iran's role in the Israel-Hamas war ›
- The proxy war (still) raging in Yemen ›
- Israel's war in Gaza has emboldened Iran, says Karim Sadjadpour - GZERO Media ›
- Iran thrives on Arab "misery", says expert Karim Sadjadpour - GZERO Media ›
- Ian Explains: How Hezbollah became so powerful in Lebanon - GZERO Media ›
A woman reacts during the funeral of a Palestinian who was killed during clashes following Israeli settlers' attack, near Ramallah.
Rare drone attack in the West Bank
For the first time in almost two decades, Israeli security officials used drones to target – and kill – Palestinian militants in the West Bank. Targeted in a moving car, the three men were said to be part of Palestinian Islamic Jihad and responsible for a recent series of shootings against Israeli Jews. This comes after Israel used a helicopter in a similar strike in the northern West Bank earlier this week.
The use of targeted assassinations implies that Israel is getting more serious about cracking down on militant groups inside the West Bank, using a tactic usually reserved for Hamas militants in the Gaza Strip, with whom Israel has fought several wars in recent years.
This comes amid a massive flare-up in the West Bank this week that has seen six Palestinians killed in Jenin in a raid carried out by Israeli troops, and four Israelis shot at a hummus joint and gas station in the West Bank. Indeed, this led to Jewish extremist reprisal attacks against a Palestinian village.
Moving forward, PIJ will come under immense pressure, particularly from its Iranian patrons, to respond forcefully. Meanwhile, PM Benjamin Netanyahu will come under similar pressure from his far-right coalition partners to launch a full-blown military operation in the West Bank.
Israeli forces stand near the scene of a shooting attack in Neve Yaacov, Jerusalem
Deadly attack at Jerusalem synagogue
A Palestinian gunman opened fire near a synagogue in east Jerusalem on Friday night, killing seven Israelis, including a 70-year-old woman, and wounding three. The assailant was shot dead by police. The attack, one of the deadliest within Israel in recent years, punctuated a week of rising violence and came just a day after seven Palestinian gunmen and two civilians were killed during an Israeli Defense Forces raid in the West Bank refugee camp of Jenin, which targeted suspected terrorists. Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad vowed revenge, and subsequent rocket launches from the Gaza Strip were followed by limited Israeli strikes.
What We're Watching: Biden's climate bill, Gaza ceasefire, Ukrainian nuclear jitters
US Senate passes Biden's big climate bill
Following a marathon vote-a-rama session that started late Saturday, the US Senate on Sunday passed a $740 billion package aimed at fighting climate change and lowering the cost of prescription drugs by raising certain corporate taxes. Although the legislation is a trimmed-down version of the Biden administration's doomed $3.5 trillion Build Back Better spending plan, it’s still the most ambitious climate legislation passed to date in America. Dubbed the “Inflation Reduction Act” — though economists doubt it'll live up to its name immediately — it allocates $369 billion for climate and clean energy investments, enables the government to negotiate some prescription drug prices, and slaps a 15% minimum tax on large corporations. Republicans say the tax hikes in the bill will kill jobs and spur inflation, but politically it's the latest in a series of victories for President Joe Biden at just the right time: three months ahead of November’s midterms. The legislation now heads to the House, where it is expected to be approved in a few days, before hitting Biden’s desk to be signed into law.
A tenuous truce in Gaza
Israel and the Islamic Jihad militant group agreed Sunday to an Egypt-brokered truce after three days of intense clashes in the Gaza Strip. Hours earlier, the Israeli military had killed a second Islamic Jihad senior commander in an offensive against the Iran-backed militant group in Gaza. At least 41 Palestinians have died in the worst violence the region has seen since Israel and Hamas — another militant group, which controls Gaza — fought an 11-day war in May 2021. The fighting began Friday, when an Israeli air strike eliminated Khaled Mansour, an Islamic Jihad top gun who'd previously survived five Israeli assassination attempts. Israel later carried out more air strikes and detained dozens of suspected Islamic Jihad members, while the group responded by firing upwards of 600 rockets at Israel. The tensions come at a tricky time in Israeli politics: caretaker PM Yair Lapid hopes that the offensive will help boost his national security credentials ahead of the Nov. 1 election, with former prime minister and security hawk "Bibi" Netanyahu planning his comeback.
Nuclear trouble in Ukraine
Europe’s largest nuclear power station, located in the Russian-occupied province of Zaporizhzhia in southern Ukraine, became the site of artillery duels over the weekend, with the two sides blaming each other for the fight. According to Kyiv, since the Russians took control of the plant in March, they’ve used it as a fortified position and stockpiled military hardware there. The IAEA was quick to sound the alarm over a “very real risk” of a nuclear disaster, warning that the shelling has seriously damaged the radiation sensors after striking close to a storage unit for spent fuel at Zaporizhzhia, one of four working atomic power stations in Ukraine (Chernobyl, the notorious site of the deadly nuclear accident in 1986 under Soviet rule, has been decommissioned). Although no radiation leaks were reported, the IAEA wants to dispatch an emergency and inspection team, but it’s unclear if the fighting will cease. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky denounced “Russian nuclear terror.”