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Norway's PM Jonas Støre says his country can power Europe
Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Støre is optimistic about his country’s progress in the global energy transition, particularly regarding the pivot from reliance on fossil fuels to a broader adoption of renewable energy sources. And given Norway’s increased importance in supplying Europe with energy, the transition could not come a moment too soon. “I think the energy transition is happening... For the first time you have written down in text all agreeing that there will be a transition out of fossil fuels,” Støre tells Ian in a wide-ranging interview for GZERO World on the sidelines of the Munich Security conference. Støre extolls the significant strides being made despite the prevailing geopolitical tensions and environmental challenges.
Støre points out the collaborative spirit of the international community, which he witnessed at COP 28. The Prime Minister emphasizes the importance of market incentives, technological innovation, and political will in driving these changes. “You cannot make it unless you make the market economy be at the service of the transition." Støre and Ian also touch on the need for a loss and damages fund to support the countries most affected by climate change, underscoring the ongoing efforts to provide financial mechanisms for environmental preservation and sustainable development.
Watch full episode: Solving Europe's energy crisis with Norway's power
Catch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week online and on US public television. Check local listings.
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Europe's energy future: Perspective from Norway's PM Jonas Støre
Listen: In the latest episode of the GZERO World Podcast, Ian Bremmer discusses the critical themes of energy security and geopolitical stability in Europe amidst ongoing global challenges with Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Støre on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference. Støre outlines Norway's ambitious plan to transition from oil and gas to renewable energy sources by 2030. This transition is not just a local endeavor but a necessary shift for Europe, aiming to address both the climate crisis and geopolitical tensions by reducing dependency on fossil fuels.
With Europe cutting off nearly all Russian energy imports, Norway has become a key supplier. Støre emphasizes the importance of technological innovation, international cooperation, and the pivotal role of the market economy in facilitating the transition towards green energy. “You cannot make it unless you make the market economy be at the service of the transition,” Jonas Gahr Støre explains. Moreover, he touches upon the broader implications for NATO and the transatlantic alliance, underscoring Europe's need to bolster its energy security and military capabilities to support Ukraine independently, if necessary.
The discussion also explores the broader context of democracy, social media's impact on society, and Norway's innovative approach to enhancing educational and social environments by limiting digital distractions among youth.
Subscribe to the GZERO World Podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, or your preferred podcast platform, to receive new episodes as soon as they're published.
The European Union's energy mix
The Graphic Truth: The European Union's energy mix
Since Russia invaded Ukraine earlier this year, the European Union has upped its commitments to ditch dirty energy sources, in large part to reduce its reliance on Russian oil and natural gas, and dilute Moscow’s leverage over European geopolitics. But even before the war, EU countries had been working towards diversifying their energy portfolios to meet their ambitious climate goals. In recent years, nuclear power and renewable energy sources have been more widely adopted throughout the bloc, while fossil fuel consumption has dipped. We compare the EU’s energy mix in 2000 and 2020.
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European Commission holds a news conference in Brussels.
What We're Watching: EU's energy conundrum, Plan B for Ukraine grain exports, war games in Taiwan, robot revenge
EU’s deepening gas woes
Europe’s gas crisis went from bad to worse on Monday after Russia announced that it would slash deliveries to Germany via the Nord Stream 1 pipeline to 20% capacity beginning this week. The Kremlin’s dramatic move is further testing the European Union’s cohesiveness just days after Brussels called on members to voluntarily cut natural gas consumption by 15% until at least April 2023. The European Commission, the EU’s executive arm, wants its 27 member states to cut back in order to boost stockpiles ahead of winter as Russia continues to use its natural gas exports as a political weapon. But the sense of European unity that defined the early stage of the war – when the bloc rallied together to enforce crushing sanctions on Moscow – is now waning. Countries like Spain and Portugal that rely less on Russian natural gas than the Germans and Italians, say the plan doesn’t account for EU countries’ disparate needs (a diplomatic way of asking why the heck they should suffer because Berlin has failed to diversify its energy portfolio). Though Brussels prefers for the plan to remain voluntary, it has threatened to make reductions in gas consumption mandatory across the bloc. The plan could go to a vote as soon as Tuesday and requires 15 of 27 states to back it. For now, the bickering continues.
Is there a Plan B for Ukraine grain exports?
It took less than 24 hours for Russia to attack the Ukrainian port of Odesa after signing an agreement to allow grain shipments to resume from … Odesa, and while Moscow says the missile strikes didn’t violate the terms of the deal, Ukraine is already working with the US on other ways to get the grain out. The focus is on Ukraine’s road, river, and rail links with the rest of Europe, says USAID boss Samantha Power. But those logistics will take time to develop, and there isn’t much of that left: the 20 million tons of grain currently in Odesa’s silos will soon start to rot. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, speaking in Egypt, one of the countries most dependent on Ukrainian and Russian grain, said Monday that the missile attacks were on non-grain port facilities and that the deal is still on. That’s some Whole Grain Chutzpah by our lights, but the fact remains: the world has little choice but to deal with Russia to free up the most efficient seaborne grain export routes from Ukraine.
Taiwan simulates war
Sirens blasted across northern Taiwan on Monday as the country kicked off an annual military drill in preparation for a potential Chinese attack. (Beijing rejects the sovereign status of the democratically governed island and has threatened to seize it through military force.) The event features mass street evacuations as part of a “missile alert,” a scenario simulating evacuation protocols in the event of a rocket attack by Beijing. But this year’s drill comes as the security situation in the Taiwan Strait feels more precarious. Just last week, US Gen. Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, warned that Beijing has become significantly more bellicose and dangerous in recent years. What’s more, China responded firmly to reports that US Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi is planning a trip to Taiwan next month, which would make her the highest-ranking US official to visit the contested territory in some 25 years. China, meanwhile, is grappling with a shrinking economy as a result of its zero-COVID policy and is likely not keen to pursue a full-blown conflict in the Strait right now. Still, it could use a potential visit by a high-ranking US official as an excuse to flex its military muscles.
What We’re Fearing: The robots’ revenge
Look, we’re not saying that the chess robot that broke a seven-year-old kid’s finger during a tournament in Moscow last week did it on purpose as an early signal that the robots are nearing the moment when they rebel against their masters in an epic uprising that leads to the enslavement of humans at the hands of AI-powered cyborgs. Catch breath. But we are also not NOT saying that. After all, the pandemic wasn’t the worst thing for our future overl – uh, robots, that is.
The EU’s natural gas troubles won’t end after ditching Russia
When Russian energy giant Gazprom shut off the Nord Stream 1 natural gas pipeline for routine summer maintenance last week, Germany and the rest of the EU feared that Russian President Vladimir Putin would refuse to turn the tap back on as a way of punishing the West for sanctions against Russia.
The jitters dissipated somewhat when Nordstream went back online Thursday, albeit at 40% capacity. But Berlin and other European capitals still worry that if things go south, they’ll need to ration gas at the worst possible time: when they need it to keep homes warm during the winter. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is urging EU members to ration natural gas by 15% through next March to prepare for a likely future cut in supply.
The Europeans have long realized that over-depending on (and over-investing in) a single energy source makes them geopolitically vulnerable. But cutting off Russia and turning to the Middle East and North Africa will be anything but smooth sailing.
Lands (and waters) of opportunity. Recent data show that in 2021 North Africa sat on 620 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, with Algeria already one of Europe’s top five suppliers.
Recently discovered offshore gas fields in the eastern Mediterranean hold an estimated two trillion cubic meters in Israeli waters. Not to mention Qatar, the world’s no. 1 liquified natural gas producer (LNG is easier to transport by sea) that’s eager to do more business with Europe.
That’s good news for the EU, which last year imported a whopping 40% of its gas from Russia.
European leaders are wasting no time. Outgoing Italian PM Mario Draghi signed a deal on Monday with Algerian President Abdelmadjid Tebboune for the Maghreb country to become Italy’s top gas supplier.
And in the last few weeks, Qatar agreed to increase LNG exports to Germany, while the EU inked a trilateral agreement with Egypt and Israel to deliver LNG from Israel’s offshore fields (via Egyptian facilities).
Europe seems to think: “Get this, Vladimir — we're gonna cut you off, turn south and import more gas than ever before.” Easy, right? Not really.
Diversification tradeoffs. Europe buying more gas from North Africa and the Middle East commits dozens of countries to extraction, processing, storing, and delivery.
One might say that multiple suppliers carry more risks. But it’s also true that by diversifying its gas sources, Europe exposes itself to “less single points of failure,” says Raad Alkadiri, Eurasia Group’s top energy expert. “That gives those sources of gas less leverage, and it also means that disruption in one area doesn't get magnified.”
However, there’s no such thing as a risk-free energy supply.
What’s more, “all energy is political,” Alkadiri notes. So, when Europe plans to decouple from Russian gas, in a sense it’s “jumping out of the frying pan and into the fire.”
This time, the Europeans claim, it’ll be different. Europe’s new gas policy will be susceptible to different — and less purely political — risks than those stemming from an aggressive Russia. Those are mainly infrastructure investment and contractual security.
“The biggest immediate challenge is creating the right infrastructure to allow that movement to take place,” Alkadiri says. That means not only investing big in places like North and Western Africa as well in the eastern Mediterranean but also building expensive facilities in Europe to manage gas, particularly if it’s LNG.
And although Europe will drag its feet into those projects, Alkadiri maintains that “it has a political incentive, an energy security incentive, to make them in the short term.”
The climate conundrum. Another big headache will be that Europe’s future climate plans — achieving net zero emissions by 2050 — collide with those of its new gas partners. Europeans understandably are reluctant to sign contracts that require them to continue importing fossil fuels in the distant future.
“Europe isn't looking to replace all Russian gas for the next 20 years,” Alkadiri notes. “What it's looking to do is to replace enough Russian gas for the next 10 years so that its very ambitious decarbonization agenda can be achieved.”
The gas-exporting nations Europe is turning to now to replace Russian supplies know that time is not on their side.
“There’s a tension between the short-term need for gas prices and Europe's longer-term energy transition,” says Ben Cahill, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
Yet “it's very difficult to compete for energy supplies on the market unless you sign a long-term contract because we have got a very tight energy market, elevated prices, and buyers who are scrambling for gas,” he adds.
Concessions across the board. Europe won’t approach all exporting countries in the same way and vice versa.
For example, Qatar has much more leverage on the negotiating table due to its unique ability to deliver high volumes of LNG fast. Doha will thus squeeze profits while it can and request that Europe sign longer-than-wanted deals. After all, Asian buyers are just around the corner.
But with non-established players in gas markets, including many African nations, shorter contracts are more likely. Unfortunately, that also means that those countries have less incentive to invest in facilities and supply chain security — which, in turn, opens the door to future supply disruptions.
It’s a risk that Europe is unable to calibrate but feels forced to take.
Unrealistic outlook. “The idea that Europe can secure gas supplies just up until the year 2030, and then diversify away quickly, is not a very realistic way of procuring gas supplies,” Cahill says.
Indeed, Europe’s energy plans are “predicated on absolutely everything falling into place at the right time, and that rarely happens in the market,” Alkadiri concludes.
It’s a less enjoyable position than expected for the Europeans, who are noticing that decoupling from Russian gas might open a Pandora’s box of many more problems down the line than heating houses for the next few winters.
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