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Norway's PM Jonas Støre says his country can power Europe
Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Støre is optimistic about his country’s progress in the global energy transition, particularly regarding the pivot from reliance on fossil fuels to a broader adoption of renewable energy sources. And given Norway’s increased importance in supplying Europe with energy, the transition could not come a moment too soon. “I think the energy transition is happening... For the first time you have written down in text all agreeing that there will be a transition out of fossil fuels,” Støre tells Ian in a wide-ranging interview for GZERO World on the sidelines of the Munich Security conference. Støre extolls the significant strides being made despite the prevailing geopolitical tensions and environmental challenges.
Støre points out the collaborative spirit of the international community, which he witnessed at COP 28. The Prime Minister emphasizes the importance of market incentives, technological innovation, and political will in driving these changes. “You cannot make it unless you make the market economy be at the service of the transition." Støre and Ian also touch on the need for a loss and damages fund to support the countries most affected by climate change, underscoring the ongoing efforts to provide financial mechanisms for environmental preservation and sustainable development.
Watch full episode: Solving Europe's energy crisis with Norway's power
Catch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week online and on US public television. Check local listings.
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Solving Europe's energy crisis with Norway's power
Europe's energy security hinges on Norway and its transition from fossil fuels to renewable sources. That has big geopolitical implications for Ukraine and NATO.
On GZERO World, Ian Bremmer delves into Europe's urgent quest for energy independence and the broader geopolitical shifts that could redefine the continent's future. With the specter of reduced US support for Ukraine after November’s election, Europe's resilience, particularly in energy security and military capabilities, takes center stage. Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Støre joins Ian to discuss Norway's critical role in this transition, emphasizing the need for a swift move from oil and gas to renewables, a monumental task that Europe and Norway are determined to undertake in a remarkably short timeframe. “Norway will transition out of oil and gas. When we pass 2030, there will be declining production, and then we want to see renewables transition upwards,” Prime Minister Jonas Støre tells Ian.
Their conversation delves into the ramifications of the US election outcome on NATO and Ukraine, underscoring Europe's precarious position should American support wane. The discussion reveals the continent's vulnerability to fuel crises and the imperative for a robust energy strategy that lessens dependency on external forces, notably by severing ties with Russian fossil fuels in response to the invasion of Ukraine. “Europe's ability to assist Kyiv on the battlefield will hinge not just on military capabilities but also Europe's own energy security,” Ian explains.
This is a moment of transformation for Europe as it navigates the complexities of energy transition and geopolitical uncertainties, highlighting the interconnectedness of sustainability, security, and solidarity in facing the challenges of the 21st century.
Catch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week online and on US public television. Check local listings.
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Europe's energy future: Perspective from Norway's PM Jonas Støre
Listen: In the latest episode of the GZERO World Podcast, Ian Bremmer discusses the critical themes of energy security and geopolitical stability in Europe amidst ongoing global challenges with Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Støre on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference. Støre outlines Norway's ambitious plan to transition from oil and gas to renewable energy sources by 2030. This transition is not just a local endeavor but a necessary shift for Europe, aiming to address both the climate crisis and geopolitical tensions by reducing dependency on fossil fuels.
With Europe cutting off nearly all Russian energy imports, Norway has become a key supplier. Støre emphasizes the importance of technological innovation, international cooperation, and the pivotal role of the market economy in facilitating the transition towards green energy. “You cannot make it unless you make the market economy be at the service of the transition,” Jonas Gahr Støre explains. Moreover, he touches upon the broader implications for NATO and the transatlantic alliance, underscoring Europe's need to bolster its energy security and military capabilities to support Ukraine independently, if necessary.
The discussion also explores the broader context of democracy, social media's impact on society, and Norway's innovative approach to enhancing educational and social environments by limiting digital distractions among youth.
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The Graphic Truth: Natural gas prices make EU power costs soar
EU natural gas prices have gone through the roof since Russia invaded Ukraine and cut off gas flows. This has sent European electric bills soaring — to the point that Brussels is ready to intervene in energy markets to protect consumers.
Some of the ideas being thrown around are a cap on the price of Russian gas to deter President Vladimir Putin from messing with the Nord Stream 1 pipeline as pushback for sanctions; a ceiling on the price of all gas used to produce electricity; a windfall tax on all energy firms to pay for consumer subsidies; and a limit on what non-gas producers can earn beyond a market price of 200 euros per MWh.
These measures aim to curb power prices and boost gas supplies before the winter, when Europeans will need more power to heat their homes. But will they be enough to fix the bloc's energy crunch before angry, cold EU residents start blaming their governments?
We compare two benchmarks for the bloc — German spot electricity prices and Dutch gas futures — over the past year.
With electric bills soaring, should the EU cap natural gas prices?
Energy prices in the EU have skyrocketed since Russia invaded Ukraine. This week, the cost of electricity across the bloc reached 10 times the decade-long average — mainly due to surging gas prices as a result of Moscow cutting natural gas supplies as payback for sanctions.
As consumers feel the pinch, EU leaders are now under intense pressure to do something to tame runaway energy costs. One way is putting a cap on gas prices for electricity.
How would that work? One proposal, floated by Italian PM Mario Draghi, is a bloc-wide ceiling on the price of Russian gas bought by EU energy companies.
That would wipe out Vladimir Putin's main leverage over Europe in one fell swoop, but also risks the Kremlin turning off the tap completely. (Russian energy giant Gazprom shut down Wednesday the Nord Stream 1 pipeline serving Germany for three days, citing highly suspicious maintenance work.)
The more popular — and populist — option is capping the price of gas from any country used to generate electricity, which is getting a lot of buzz in Brussels these days. EU governments would pay energy firms the difference between that cieling and the higher market price of gas, so companies don't have to pass on the cost to consumers.
Whatever Putin does, price-capping fans argue, come winter ordinary Europeans would be able to keep the lights on and their homes warm.
The price cap is a short-term political gambit that gives EU leaders some breathing room to diversify away from Russian gas without the political backlash from Europeans struggling to pay their electric bills, says Raad Alkadiri, managing director for energy at Eurasia Group.
Brussels, he adds, is desperate to kick its Russian gas habit, but EU member states need more time to import and store enough LNG from alternative sources like Algeria or Qatar. And in the future, the bloc hopes that more renewables in the energy mix should reduce the EU's overall reliance on gas for electricity.
A gas price cap targeting consumers is already in place since June in Spain and Portugal, which got the green light from Brussels to pilot the system. So far so good, but the Iberian Peninsula doesn't buy much Russian gas and is somewhat disconnected from the broader EU wholesale market (although this would change if France agrees to build a pipeline to Germany under the Pyrenees).
Still, it's unclear if an EU-wide cap would need sign-off from all member states, and in any case, extending the Iberian scheme to the entire bloc might have some unintended consequences.
For one thing, artificially “cheap” gas could actually encourage Europeans to consume more gas barely a month after EU member states painstakingly agreed to “voluntarily” cut gas consumption by 15% until April 2023 to avoid winter rationing. More demand will push prices up, and over time make the subsidy unsustainable for cash-strapped governments.
What's more, two of the governments pushing the hardest for an EU-wide cap — Italy and Spain — are already highly indebted, and would get even deeper into the red if they borrow more money to shield their citizens from sky-high electric bills if the war drags on.
For another, this could all throw a wrench into EU plans to achieve net zero carbon emissions by 2050. For those against the price cap, it’s as much a subsidy for consumers as it is for fossil fuels, and public funds would be better spent on accelerating the renewables transition.
"The cost of diversifying away from Russian gas is really expensive," Alkadiri says. But if you're an EU government, he adds, you must choose between making consumers pay or picking up the tab yourself. And while you might style yourself as fiscally responsible, the last thing you want is to face angry voters who feel they’ve become poorer — and might force you to let Putin get away with murder in Ukraine.
"Russia is sitting there, saying: you want cheap gas? We have it in droves. And you have all the infrastructure you need to get it. Europe is saying: yes, but that gives you political power over us. So we don't want your gas. We don't want to be dependent on you.”
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A person wearing a Sudan's flag stand in front of a burning pile of tyres during a protest against prospect of military rule in Khartoum, Sudan October 21, 2021.
What We’re Watching: Sudanese protesters vs each other, NBA vs China, EU vs Poland
Protests in Sudan: Protests are again shaking the Sudanese capital, as supporters of rival wings of the transitional government take to the streets. Back in 2019, after popular demonstrations led to the ouster of longtime autocrat Omar al-Bashir, a deal was struck between civilian activists and the army, in which a joint civilian-military government would run the country until fresh elections could be held in 2023. But now supporters of the military wing are calling on it to dissolve the government entirely, while supporters of the civilian wing are counter-protesting. Making matters worse, a pro-military tribal leader in Eastern Sudan has set up a blockade which is interrupting the flow of goods and food to the capital. The US, which backs the civilian wing, has sent an envoy to Khartoum as tensions rise, while Egypt, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey are all vying for a piece as well.
NBA in hot water again with China: The NBA season is barely underway, and the league is already embroiled in a fresh political scandal involving China. Boston Celtics center Enes Kanter posted a video supporting Tibetan independence (a throwback issue to be sure, but hey the 1990s are popular again) and blasting Chinese President Xi Jinping as a "brutal dictator." He also posted, and wore, these absolutely fire "Free Tibet" sneakers. In response, the Chinese sports app Tencent promptly pulled all Celtics games and highlights. The NBA is wildly popular — and lucrative — in China, and the CCP knows it: back in 2019, Chinese state TV stopped broadcasting NBA games for months in response to an NBA team exec's pro-Hong Kong tweet, in a move that reportedly cost the league hundreds of millions of dollars. So what should the NBA do now? If they stand up for Kanter, they risk losing big money. If they don't, they look like they are kowtowing to a repressive government. Is it an impossible situation? Maybe, but it's only the latest values vs valuations struggle for an American company that does business in the world's largest market.
EU leaders talk Poland, energy: EU leaders are meeting in Brussels for a two-day summit where two items will dominate the agenda. First, how to respond to Poland's defiance of the bloc's rules, after the country's top court recently ruled that its own constitution trumps EU law. Brussels is fuming at this direct challenge to its power and values, and may withhold badly-needed COVID relief funds until Warsaw backs off. The "illiberal" Polish government, meanwhile, is in a pickle because EU membership is so popular among Poles they can't push Brussels too far, let alone seriously threaten to leave. The other big issue at the summit is how to deal with rising energy prices, an issue that has split the Union: the European Commission, Germany and others say the current price surge will be resolved once pandemic-related shortages are over, but Greece, Hungary, and Spain want the bloc to reform the way power is bought and sold across the EU. Both sides agree that Russia could do a lot more to help its top natural gas customers, but Vladimir Putin perhaps thinks it's precisely the best time to squeeze the EU amid a broader rift with NATO.