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Former U.S. President Donald Trump returns from a break at Manhattan criminal court in New York, U.S., on Monday, April 15, 2024.
Hard Numbers: Trump’s independent voters, Supreme Court's refusal to hear protest case, Singapore’s new PM, Samsung’s new chipmaking hub, Tesla’s layoffs, Beijing’s half marathon scandal
36: A recent poll found that 36% of voters registered as independent would be “less likely to support [Donald] Trump” if he’s convicted on any of the 34 felony charges in the so-called hush money case now underway in New York City.
3: On Monday, the Supreme Court announced that it will not hear a case from the Fifth Circuit Court that effectively eliminated the right to protest in Louisiana, Mississippi, and Texas. This leaves the lower court's decision – which ruled that a protest organizer faces potentially ruinous financial consequences if a single attendee at a mass protest commits an illegal act – in place, jeopardizing the First Amendment right to protest in these three southern US states.
20: After nearly 20 years in power, Lee Hsien Loong, son of Singapore’s founding father Lee Kuan Yew, will step down on May 15 as prime minister. Deputy PM and Finance Minister Lawrence Wong, Lee’s heir apparent for the past two years, will take the job. After almost six decades of political dominance by the People’s Action Party, Singapore may have its first genuinely competitive elections as early as later this year as the party becomes less popular.
6.4 billion: To boost US domestic production of semiconductors, the Biden administration will give up to $6.4 billion in grants to Samsung, one of the world’s largest chipmakers, to finance a new manufacturing hub and expand an existing site in Texas.
10: On Monday, electric vehicle maker Tesla announced plans to lay off more than 10% of its workforce (about 14,000 people) to cut costs, and a longtime senior executive announced his resignation. Meanwhile, EV makers in Asia and Europe have been producing a growing number of new models.
3: Organizers of the Beijing half marathon are investigating video footage shared online that appears to show three East African runners allowing a Chinese competitor to win the race. It’s not clear why the two Kenyans and one Ethiopian might have done this.
Singapore sets an example on AI governance
Marietje Schaake, International Policy Fellow, Stanford Human-Centered Artificial Intelligence, and former European Parliamentarian, co-hosts GZERO AI, our new weekly video series intended to help you keep up and make sense of the latest news on the AI revolution. In this episode, she reviews the Singapore government's latest agenda in its AI policy: How to govern AI, at the Singapore Conference on Artificial Intelligence.
Hello. My name is Marietje Schaake. I'm in Singapore this week, and this is GZERO AI. Again, a lot of AI activities going on here at a conference organized by the Singaporese government that is looking at how to govern AI, the key question, million-dollar question, billion-dollar question that is on agendas for politicians, whether it is in cities, countries, or multilateral organizations. And what I like about the approach of the government here in Singapore is that they've brought together a group of experts from multiple disciplines, multiple countries around the world, to help them tackle the question of, what should we be asking ourselves? And how can experts inform what Singapore should do with regard to its AI policy? And this sort of listening mode and inviting experts first, I think is a great approach and hopefully more governments will do that, because I think it's necessary to have such well-informed thoughts, especially while there is so much going on already. Singapore is thinking very, very clearly and strategically about what its unique role can be in a world full of AI activities.
Speaking of the world full of AI activities, the EU will have the last, at least last planned negotiating round on the EU AI Act where the most difficult points will have to come to the table. Outstanding differences between Member States, the European parliaments around national security uses of AI, or the extent to which human rights protections will be covered, but also the critical discussion that is surfacing more and more around foundation models, whether they should be regulated, how they should be regulated, and how that can be done in a way that European companies are not disadvantaged compared to, for example, US leaders in the generative AI space in particular. So it's a pretty intense political fight, even after it looked like there was political consensus until about a month ago. But of course that is not unusual. Negotiations always have to tackle the most difficult points at the end, and that is where we are. So it's a space to watch, and I wouldn't be surprised if there would be an additional negotiating round planned after the one this week.
Then there will be the first physical meeting of the UN AI Advisory Body, of which I'm a member and I'm looking forward. This is going to happen in New York City and it will really be the first opportunity for all of us to get together and discuss, after online working sessions have taken place and a flurry of activities has already taken off after we were appointed roughly a month ago. So the UN is moving at break speed this time, and hopefully it will lead to important questions and answers with regard to the global governance of AI, the unique role of the United Nations, and the application of the charter international human rights and international law at this critical moment for global governance of artificial intelligence.
- Singapore politics get (!) interesting ›
- Is the EU's landmark AI bill doomed? ›
- EU AI regulation efforts hit a snag ›
- Regulate AI, but how? The US isn’t sure ›
- AI's impact on jobs could lead to global unrest, warns AI expert Marietje Schaake - GZERO Media ›
- AI regulation means adapting old laws for new tech: Marietje Schaake - GZERO Media ›
- AI & human rights: Bridging a huge divide - GZERO Media ›
Singapore politics get (!) interesting
In Singapore, domestic politics are famously boring. The tiny yet ultra-prosperous nation, which has been ruled by the People’s Action Party since independence in 1965, is not just a physical island but also an island of political stability surrounded by volatile neighbors.
PAP officials are themselves notorious for being competent, honest … and such wholesome squares that, well, no one really talks about them. Not anymore.
Singapore has been rocked this month by three political scandals that have shown that not all its politicians are as squeaky clean as their reputation.
On Tuesday, the government of Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong invoked a draconian fake news law to mandate that Lee's estranged brother "correct" a Facebook post in which he claimed that the state had paid for renovations in two high-end bungalows rented by senior cabinet officials. Lee Hsien Yang insists that what he wrote is true and has yet to comply with the order.
But wait, there's more! Last week, two PAP officials — the speaker of parliament and an MP — stepped down for having an "inappropriate relationship" in defiance of PM Lee's orders to end the romance. And in early July, a senior minister was arrested along with a prominent tycoon in Singapore's most serious corruption probe in decades.
Okay, the corruption stuff is a big deal — especially in the fifth least corrupt country in the world, according to Transparency International. But the Lee family feud and the parliamentary fling would barely have raised eyebrows anywhere else. So, why all the fuss?
Singapore has long pitched an image of a clean, graft-free government to lure foreign investors. It has paid off: The city-state of only 5.5 million people is now considered Asia's top financial hub, especially after China's crackdown in Hong Kong.
The PAP has always justified its benevolent dictatorship by holding its members to extremely high standards. But that moral high ground is now being tested ahead of a much-awaited power transition away from the Lee dynasty. (Singapore was founded by Lee Kuan Yew, father of the current PM, and regarded as one of Asia's most influential statesmen until his death in 2015.)
The junior Lee's handpicked successor is his deputy Lawrence Wong, the PAP's idea of a “personable” leader: He grew up in public housing, didn’t attend elite private schools, plays guitar, shows (some) emotion on Instagram, and is divorced without kids in a socially conservative nation. Otherwise, he's another PAP goody two-shoes.
The PM isn't required to call an election and doesn’t plan to hand over power to Wong until 2025. Although that'll be the first time no member of the Lee family will be running for office, the ruling party probably won't get voted out of power because the opposition is weak and bankrupt — thanks in part to public defamation lawsuits that government lawyers always win.
Still, the recent scandals have demonstrated that the PAP is not infallible and that its members are capable of sin. With the genie now out of the bottle, don't be surprised if more Singaporeans eventually feel the urge to do something unthinkable: vote for someone else.Bar charts of Singapore, South Korea, and the Philippines's views on the US and China
The Graphic Truth: Perspectives on the US and China
The US and China are competing for influence around the globe, but tensions are particularly high in East Asia, where China is the dominant power and the US is working to stop the region’s drift toward Beijing. The Eurasia Group Foundation surveyed 1,500 people across Singapore, South Korea, and the Philippines – three countries caught in the middle of the US-China rivalry with significant historical, economic, and diplomatic ties to both superpowers – for their views.
“We found that the US is still held in high regard in the countries we surveyed, much more so than China, but that most think increasing tensions between the two countries will negatively impact their country's national security and domestic political environment” says Caroline Gray, a senior EGF researcher.
We took a look at the data to see how the US and China are faring in their competition for influence in East Asia.
Demonstrators carry flower crowns during a symbolic funeral for their wages in Buenos Aires.
Hard Numbers: RIP wages in Argentina, Japan's missile arsenal, Mogadishu attack, Singapore’s big LGBT move
317: Argentine workers held Friday a mock funeral procession for the "death" of the living wage in the country, where sky-high inflation is wiping out purchasing power. The minimum wage of $317 a month now covers less than half the cost of a basic food basket for a family of four.
1,000: Japan is stockpiling more than 1,000 long-range missiles, and for the first time plans to deploy the arsenal on islands facing China and North Korea. Two weeks ago, China responded to US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan by firing ballistic missiles around the island, five of which landed inside Japan's exclusive economic zone.
21: At least 20 people were killed Sunday in Mogadishu after security forces ended a standoff with al-Shabab militants who had stormed a hotel and taken hostages. It's the first attack in Somalia's capital by the group linked to al-Qaida since President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud took over in May.
377: In a surprise move Sunday, PM Lee Hsien Loong announced that Singapore will repeal section 377A of the criminal code, a colonial-era law banning same-sex relationships. The notoriously conservative island nation is the latest Asian government to decriminalize gay sex after India, Thailand, and Taiwan (where same-sex marriages are allowed since 2019).
How long can China's zero-COVID policy last?
China's tough pandemic response likely saved a million deaths, but former CDC chief Tom Frieden believes the Chinese have two big problems now.
First, their vaccines don't work, he tells Ian Bremmer on GZERO World. And second, hesitancy rates — especially among the elderly — remain high.
So, what should China do now? Get better vaccines to the most vulnerable, and accept "almost" zero-COVID, like Singapore.
If the Chinese can test cities of more than 10 million people in a few days, Frieden says distributing effective jabs to those who need them "is certainly within their grasp."
Watch the GZERO World episode: How depoliticizing the US health response will save lives (COVID isn't over)
- Should we worry about monkeypox? - GZERO Media ›
- How depoliticizing the US health response will save lives (COVID ... ›
- "Stunningly infectious" COVID demands better preparation, says ... ›
- China isn't budging on zero-COVID - GZERO Media ›
- What is China's zero COVID policy? - GZERO Media ›
- The Graphic Truth: Zero-COVID is hurting China's economy ... ›
- NATO Summit most important post-Berlin Wall - GZERO Media ›
- Boris Johnson is going to be out, one way or the other - GZERO Media ›
- Who cares if Elon Musk bought Twitter? - GZERO Media ›
No feed no chicken
First, it was Indonesia with palm oil, then India with wheat. This week, Malaysia joined a growing list of countries nationalizing food supplies by suspending exports of live chickens to cool down soaring local prices that have skyrocketed since Russia invaded Ukraine.
The ban has ruffled feathers in next-door neighbor Singapore, which buys almost all of its live birds from Malaysia. Notoriously food-snobbish Singaporeans say you cannot prepare Hainanese chicken rice — the country’s beloved de-facto national dish — with frozen hens from Brazil, lah.
It’s gotten political, too. “This time it is chicken, next time it may be something else,” PM Lee Hsieng Loong said in a not-so-thinly-veiled swipe at Malaysia soon after the ban was announced.
How did we get here? Malaysian poultry prices started creeping up in late 2021 due to higher feed costs and a weak ringgit, which makes imports more expensive.
By the time government stepped in, capping prices and removing import duties on feed earlier this year, it was too late. The war had already jacked up the cost of the main ingredient in chicken feed: grains like corn and sunflower.
Malaysia had run out of options, says Yeah Kim Leng, professor of economics at Sunway University in Kuala Lumpur. The rising costs, combined with price controls and hard-to-get subsidies, were simply putting too many chicken growers out of business.
But food protectionism always makes things worse. Export bans, he explains, are "very disruptive and will have long-term implications" — they destroy productive capacity by shutting down farms that become unprofitable, even if the suspension is short-lived, because agribusiness margins are razor-thin, "which is the opposite of what the [Malaysian] government is trying to do."
What's more, Yeah says that hoarding ultimately imperils global food security, as more countries aiming for self-sufficiency make food more expensive for everyone in the long run.
Meanwhile, chicken is getting more expensive everywhere, with no end in sight. UK supermarkets fear that it could soon become more expensive than beef because feed accounts for roughly 70% of the input cost of poultry, making it highly vulnerable to shortages and price swings. The feed itself is in short supply due to a string of bad harvests from climate change-induced droughts and floods, a surge in post-COVID demand, and, of course, the war.
Also, poultry is the low-cost protein staple in many of the world’s poorest countries, where people — unlike wealthy Singaporeans — just can't choose to eat other meats, fish, or tofu when fresh chicken is unavailable.
So, what, if anything, can we do about it? Not much in the near term, says Hilary Ingham, an economics lecturer at Lancaster University. You can make feed from alternative raw materials — including, we kid you not, fish excrements. But none are as good as grains, which means the animals will take longer to fatten up, slashing profit margins for growers and pushing up prices for consumers.
Another way to ease the pain on consumers is to give them cash to offset the higher cost of living, but generous subsidies are out of reach for governments in the developing world. And you can always just grow more of what you need (for instance, the EU is looking to allow farmers to plant crops for livestock feed in fields normally set aside for environmental purposes).
Still, anything that might make a difference will take time, says Ingham — as will fixing global systems exposed as more vulnerable to external shocks than we thought.
Or perhaps we could all just eat less meat. That would definitely free up a lot of the world's cropland, one-third of which is now used to grow food for the animals we eat.
Would you go vegan if chicken becomes a luxury item? Let us know here.This comes to you from the Signal newsletter team of GZERO Media. Subscribe for your free daily Signal today.
Biden-Xi virtual summit shows breakthroughs in US-China relationship
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week with a look at his return to international travel, Joe Biden & Xi Jinping's virtual summit, and the Belarus-Poland border crisis.
How was your return to international travel?
Well, actually it was pretty straightforward. I mean, you think that you hear all these lockdowns and all these quarantines, but the fact is Singapore is incredibly efficient. The one thing that's kind of unusual is you have this app you have to put on your phone. You turn it on, you have to keep your phone on and they track you absolutely everywhere, which is pretty weird and kind of dystopian, but it works for closing down COVID. Aside from that though, no problems getting in here. No problem walking around.
Were there any breakthroughs at Biden & Xi's virtual summit?
They say there weren't any breakthroughs, but frankly, I would argue that in terms of the relationship itself, there really have been. Number one, you did get a willingness of the Americans and the Chinese to engage on climate and before they were saying no. Given that the two largest carbon emitters in the world, that's a big deal. Secondly, some agreements on how they're going to treat journalists and visas from both the countries, which had been really dysfunctional. Number three, there's going to be ongoing engagement on nuclear and security policy, high level conversations and dialogue. None of these things are like sudden big announcements that say that there is trust between two countries, but it is actually a change in trajectory in the relationship and very clearly not cold war.
What do you think of US Secretary of State Blinken suggesting that Belarus migrant crisis is an attempt to distract from Russia's increased troop presence near Ukraine?
It's plausible. Having said that, I think they can walk and chew gum at the same time, the Kremlin. And what I see is Lukashenko, President Lukashenko, is under a lot of economic pressure and he's more than happy to push, use his rogue status to make life unpleasant for the Poles, for the Lithuanians. But the Kremlin is clearly helping him. The bigger issue here I think is not the distraction on Ukraine. The bigger issue is that the Russians are sitting on a significant amount of cash because energy prices are higher, because Putin feels like he's got a lot of leverage over the Europeans on downstream energy given their problems. And as a consequence, he feels more emboldened to do all of the things that he would normally feel a little bit more cautious about. That includes Belarus. That includes Ukraine.