We have updated our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use for Eurasia Group and its affiliates, including GZERO Media, to clarify the types of data we collect, how we collect it, how we use data and with whom we share data. This website uses cookies. By using our website you consent to our Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy, including the transfer of your personal data to the United States from your country of residence (if different), and our use of cookies as described in our Cookie Policy.
As we enter the homestretch of the US presidential election — which is set to be the most contentious, and possibly contested, in generations — Americans are also voting on 35 seats up for grabs in a battle for the control of the Senate. The 100-member body is currently held 53-47 by the Republican Party, but many individual races are wide open, and the Democrats are confident they can flip the upper chamber of Congress.
Either way, the result will have a profound impact not only on domestic policy, but also on US foreign relations and other issues with global reach. Here are a few areas where what US senators decide reverberates well beyond American shores.
<p><strong>Trade. </strong>Although Donald Trump loves to do US trade policy by <a href="https://www.federalregister.gov/presidential-documents/executive-orders/donald-trump/2020" target="_blank">executive order</a>, these only work for a few months because the real power to approve international treaties lies in the Senate. Trump <a href="https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/us-china-phase-one-trade-deal-whats-next" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">skirted</a> the process with phase one of the <a href="https://www.gzeromedia.com/the-us-and-china-strike-a-deal" target="_self">US-China trade agreement</a> by calling it a "contract" rather than a treaty, but negotiated Democratic support to ratify the <a href="https://www.gzeromedia.com/goodbye-nafta-hello-usmca" target="_self">USMCA trade deal</a> replacing NAFTA (as Joe Biden will need to win over some Republicans to <a href="https://thehill.com/policy/international/455668-biden-i-would-renegotiate-pacific-trade-deal" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">renegotiate</a> the Trans-Pacific Partnership if he becomes president).</p><p><strong>Immigration.</strong> The White House can do a lot on immigration bypassing Congress, like Trump's notorious <a href="https://www.axios.com/trump-muslim-travel-ban-immigration-6ce8554f-05bd-467b-b3c2-ea4876f7773a.html" target="_blank">travel ban</a> on people from several majority-Muslim countries. However, only the Senate can pass a long-overdue <a href="https://www.migrationpolicy.org/topics/comprehensive-immigration-reform" target="_blank">comprehensive immigration reform</a>, which affects recipient countries of highly coveted H1-B visas like <a href="https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/us-president-donald-trump-signs-order-against-hiring-h1b-visa-holders-for-federal-contracts-2273665" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">India</a>, or many Latin American nations where US immigrants benefit from <a href="https://immigrationforum.org/article/fact-sheet-family-based-immigration/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">family-based</a> green card sponsorship. The current law on the books — which Democrats and Republicans largely agree is <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2019/07/why-americas-immigration-system-is-broken/593143/" target="_blank">broken</a> — remains unchanged since <a href="https://www.vox.com/2014/9/3/18080710/immigration-immigrants-reform-us" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">1986</a>... due to lack of bipartisan consensus on how to fix it.</p><p><strong>Arms deals, climate change.</strong> The next president will also need Senate consent for other international agreements that are crucial to US foreign policy. To name just two, it's unclear whether a Democratic majority will greenlight <a href="https://www.gzeromedia.com/what-were-watching-uks-second-wave-uae-us-eye-arms-deal-chinas-plans-for-tibet" target="_self">selling</a> F-35 fighter jets to the United Arab Emirates, while a Republican-controlled Senate would likely (try to) block a future Biden administration from <a href="https://theconversation.com/under-biden-the-us-would-no-longer-be-a-climate-pariah-and-that-leaves-scott-morrison-exposed-144870" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">rejoining</a> the 2015 Paris Agreement on climate change.</p><p><strong>Regardless of who wins the Senate,</strong> if the same party controls both it and the White House, expect a raft of potentially divisive partisan legislation. If Trump and the Republicans hold court, his wish list of hardline policies on trade and immigration would expand. On the other hand, if the Democrats win the presidency and the Senate, buckle up for sweeping changes like <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2020/07/14/joe-biden-2020-filibuster-360587" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">removing the filibuster</a><u>, </u><a href="https://thehill.com/latino/517921-hopes-for-dc-puerto-rico-statehood-rise" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">increasing the number of states</a>, and <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/19/us/politics/what-is-court-packing.html" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">packing the Supreme Court</a> (especially if its latest <a href="https://www.gzeromedia.com/supreme-court-vacancy-turns-us-election-on-its-head" target="_blank">vacancy</a> is filled by November 3).<u></u></p><p>If different parties control the White House and the Senate, today's deeply polarized US political environment will likely lead to a stalemate. With hyper partisanship discouraging <em>any</em> laws being passed, it'll be all up to the courts.</p>
More
Show less
For many, Paul Rusesabagina became a household name after the release of the 2004 tear-jerker film Hotel Rwanda, which was set during the 1994 Rwandan genocide.
Rusesabagina, who used his influence as a hotel manager to save the lives of more than 1,000 Rwandans, has again made headlines in recent weeks after he was reportedly duped into boarding a flight to Kigali, Rwanda's capital, where he was promptly arrested on terrorism, arson, kidnapping and murder charges. Rusesabagina's supporters say he is innocent and that the move is retaliation against the former "hero" for his public criticism of President Paul Kagame, who has ruled the country with a strong hand since ending the civil war in the mid 1990s.
<p>Indeed, this case reflects the full scope of complexities underpinning contemporary Rwandan politics and society.</p><p><strong>Paul Kagame: A "benevolent dictator"</strong></p><p>Much of Kagame's worldview was formed during his formative years growing up in a Ugandan refugee camp. An ethnic Tutsi, Kagame was one of hundreds of thousands who fled during the country's decades-long civil war to escape violent attacks by the Hutu-led government.</p><p>In the waning days of the <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-26875506" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Rwandan genocide </a>— during which Tutsis were systematically raped, tortured and murdered by their Hutu neighbors, and some 1 million Rwandans were killed — Paul Kagame commanded the Rwandan Patriotic Front (RFP), a Tutsi militia that eventually ended the Hutus' murderous campaign, emerging as the most powerful political force in post-conflict Rwanda. Kagame became president in 2000.</p><p>Since then, Kagame has been credited with overseeing a period of stability and economic prosperity after one of the world's bloodiest conflicts, but <a href="https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2014/08/kagame-african-leader-obama-shouldnt-invite-109677" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">critics</a> accuse him of widespread <a href="https://vimeo.com/107867605?utm_campaign=5370367&utm_source=affiliate&utm_channel=affiliate&cjevent=20b86c22fdb411ea82be007f0a240611" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">human rights abuses.</a></p><p><strong>Internal perceptions</strong></p><p>While many Rwandans revere Kagame for his role in ending the conflict and then putting Rwanda on the map as one of the <a href="https://qz.com/africa/1783714/african-economies-to-watch-in-2020-debt-and-climate-crisis/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">fastest-growing</a> economies in Africa, and one of the best places to do business in the world (in the <a href="https://www.doingbusiness.org/content/dam/doingBusiness/media/Annual-Reports/English/DB2019-report_web-version.pdf" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">World Bank's 2019 "Doing Business" report </a>it ranked 29th out of 190 countries), he is also widely viewed as a <a href="https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2014/08/kagame-african-leader-obama-shouldnt-invite-109677" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">strongman</a> known for suppressing dissenting views and creating an atmosphere of growing mistrust and fear.</p><p>Indeed, politically motivated killings and enforced disappearances of high-profile <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/rwandas-opposition-rattled-by-killings-and-disappearances-of-members/a-50596049" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">political opponents </a>in the years since Kagame took power are well documented, while <a href="https://www.hrw.org/news/2014/01/28/rwanda-repression-across-borders" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">human rights groups</a> have long denounced arbitrary arrests and torture of Rwandans who dare to criticize the government.</p><p>Many Rwandans also lament the concentration of power amongst a small group of political elite who are loyal to the president. Kagame's <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/06/world/africa/rwanda-elections-paul-kagame.html?_r=0" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">reelection</a> in 2017 — when he claimed to have reaped a fanciful 99 percent of the vote — was seen by many as a sham, reflective of the oppressive political environment the RFP has cultivated. Importantly, this contested election came just two years after Kagame held a referendum overriding term limits that would allow him to stay at the helm until 2034. (<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/26/it-looks-like-a-gameshow-russias-pseudo-vote-on-putins-term-limits" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Vladimir Putin </a>seemed to find this move inspiring, following suit this year.)</p><p><strong>External perceptions</strong></p><p>The international development community, and much of the West, have lauded Kagame for steering the country through a period of profound economic growth that's lifted at least 1 million people out of poverty. Meanwhile, Kagame's focus on expanding female representation in politics — over <a href="https://www.unwomen.org/en/news/stories/2018/8/feature-rwanda-women-in-parliament" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">60 percent</a> of the country's lawmakers are women — has also endeared him to leaders in Europe and the US. (When <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-africa-42834308" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">US President Donald Trump </a>met with his Rwandan counterpart in 2018, he praised Kagame's "absolutely terrific" leadership and said: "It's a great honor to have you as a friend." )</p><p>Additionally, the Kagame government's focus on promotion of new technologies and environmental policy (in 2019, Rwanda became the first African country to introduce a complete <a href="https://www.greenpeace.org/africa/en/blogs/11156/34-plastic-bans-in-africa/#:~:text=Rwanda%20is%20a%20shining%20star,sale%20of%20plastic%20carrier%20bags.&text=In%20October%202019%2C%20Rwanda%20became,on%20all%20single%2Duse%20plastics." rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">ban </a>on all single-use plastics) has led to strong partnerships with economic heavyweights like Germany. The two countries recently created a <a href="https://www.volkswagen-newsroom.com/en/press-releases/first-for-africa-volkswagen-and-siemens-launch-joint-electric-mobility-pilot-project-in-rwanda-5510" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">joint pilot project </a>to introduce electric cars to Rwanda, with plans to expand the electronic automotive industry throughout the region.</p><p>To be sure, while some Western leaders have condemned Kagame for his human rights record in the past — with Washington going so far as to <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-congo-rwanda-usa/u-s-cuts-military-aid-to-rwanda-over-congo-rebel-support-idUSBRE86K0AY20120721" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">cut </a>military aid to Rwanda in 2012, citing the government's support for violent militias in the Democratic Republic of the Congo — most have been willing to look the other way because of the country's economic potential. (In the late1990s, leaders including US President Bill Clinton and the UK's Tony Blair repeatedly praised Kagame's leadership as visionary.)</p><p><strong>A complex legacy</strong></p><p>Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn, the Russian writer, philosopher and dissident, once said: "The battle between good and evil runs through the heart of every man." While Paul Kagame has pioneered reforms that have helped stabilize a war-torn country, many believe that his oppressive tactics have led to continued pain and suffering, <a href="https://theconversation.com/rwanda-cant-achieve-reconciliation-without-fixing-its-democracy-94925" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">making it hard </a>for Rwanda's post-genocide society to fully heal.</p>
More
Show less
Toward inclusive multilateralism: John Frank, Microsoft’s VP of UN Affairs
September 24, 2020
From climate change to connecting more people to the Internet, big companies like Microsoft are seeing an increasing role within multilateral organizations like the UN and the World Health Organization. John Frank, Microsoft's VP of UN Affairs, explains the contributions tech companies and other multinational corporations are making globally during this time of crisis and challenge.
Hard Numbers: Latin America tops COVID death rates, disasters hit Asia, India slims labor laws, Taylor verdict sparks US unrest
September 24, 2020
7: Among the 10 nations showing the highest COVID-19 death rates per 100,000 people, seven are in Latin America. Weak health systems, frail leadership, and the inability of millions of working poor to do their daily jobs remotely have contributed to the regional crisis. Peru tops the global list with nearly 100 fatalities per 100,000 people. Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Mexico, and Colombia are also in the top 10.
<p><strong>2: </strong>Two policemen were <a href="https://www.cnn.com/us/live-news/breonna-taylor-announcement/h_acb84c21640413159d4c915dd56e4734" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">shot</a> in Louisville, in the US state of Kentucky, during protests and riots over <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/23/us/breonna-taylor-officer-indicted.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">a grand jury's decision not to press charges</a> against police officers for the killing of Breonna Taylor, an unarmed Black woman who was shot to death in her own home during a botched drug raid in March.</p><p><strong>80: </strong>Among people around the world affected both by natural disasters <em>and</em> COVID-19 this year, 80 percent live in the Asia Pacific region, according to a <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/9/24/asia-pacific-hardest-hit-by-covid-19-climate-related-disasters" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">new report </a>from the Red Cross. India and Bangladesh suffered the most, as floods, storms, and the pandemic affected some 40 million people in the two countries.</p><p><strong>4:</strong> India's dozens of famously confusing and conflicting labor laws have been <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-09-22/india-s-lower-house-of-parliament-passes-key-labor-reform-bills" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">slimmed down</a> to just four in a historic new reform. The new laws significantly expand labor rights and protections, while also giving companies more flexibility to hire and fire employees. Critics <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2020/9/24/why-indias-new-historic-labour-laws-may-not-work-for-workers" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">say</a> that because the new laws apply only to firms with more than 300 people, the measures do nothing to help hundreds of millions of informal workers who toil for off-the-books cash either alone or at smaller companies.</p>
More
Show less
Today In 60 Seconds
GZEROMEDIA
Subscribe to GZERO Media's Newsletter: Signal
Latest
Toward inclusive multilateralism: John Frank, Microsoft’s VP of UN Affairs
UNGA Videos
September 24, 2020