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Bola Tinubu reacts after he was declared the winner in Nigeria's presidential election at his party's campaign headquarters, in Abuja.
Nigeria elects political “Godfather" as president
It took a while and there was a lot of post-election drama, but Nigeria finally has a new president-elect: Bola Tinubu.
The ruling party candidate was declared the winner early Wednesday, five days after a vote marred by a slower-than-expected count and problems with tallying. Before the electoral commission made the call, Tinubu's rivals had demanded that officials cancel the result and redo the election because the outcome had been “manipulated” by results sheets being posted online.
While any legal challenges to his victory by opposition hopeful Atiku Abubakar and insurgent third-party candidate Peter Obi make their way through the courts, Tinubu is the president-elect and officially takes over in May. Who is he, and what are his plans for Africa's most populous nation and largest economy?
Known as Nigeria's political "Godfather," the former governor of Lagos has a lot of experience. So much, in fact, that his campaign pitch was: "It's my turn."
For his supporters, Tinubu — who wears a skullcap emblazoned with broken shackles to symbolize his freedom after dictator Sani Abacha forced him into exile — is a savvy politico who knows how to exercise power in front of and behind the scenes. He transformed Nigeria's biggest city from a chaotic asphalt jungle into a bustling metropolis by attracting foreign investment.
But his critics argue that Tinubu is just another member of the corrupt political class who can't justify his vast wealth. What's more, he's alienated Christians by picking a fellow Muslim as his running mate, and his poor health at 70 means that he might not be up to the job. (No way, says Tinubu, who during the campaign showed off his stamina by posting a video on an exercise bike.)
Fears about his fitness seem overblown to Amaka Anku, Eurasia Group’s top Africa analyst.
“Despite his health issues, Tinubu is much more assertive than [current President Muhammadu] Buhari. He follows issues, he is engaged, he is a politician. He is unlike Buhari, who doesn’t talk,” she says. “As a Nigerian president, you have to be the coach and the referee.”
Tinubu hopes to fix Nigeria's (many) problems by first curing its economic ills. He wants to massively improve revenue generation for the state, which he excelled at when he ran Lagos. Similarly, he aims to limit borrowing and draw in foreign cash.
Also, "Tinubu has a clear brain trust around him," Anku says. And as the ruling party's pick, he is "well placed to move quickly" on unpopular yet unavoidable policies such as nixing fuel subsidies, which last year cost the government $10 billion it could hardly afford.
Yet, he's the first Nigerian president to win the top job without a popular majority — and his rivals have cried foul over his victory. The opposition has 21 days to legally challenge the results, but then it could take up to eight months for the dispute to be resolved — like in 2019, when the supreme court threw out Abubakar’s contest against Buhari’s re-election.
Supporters of the losing candidates have already taken to the streets of Lagos and Abuja. Whether the protests turn into widespread unrest will largely depend on what the president-elect and other politicians say and do over the next few days and weeks.
What does this outcome mean for popular confidence in elections? "Low trust in Nigerian democracy isn’t based on process issues but rather on the state's inability to deliver" things like public services or security, Anku says. The failure to do so explains why satisfaction with democracy has plummeted from 84% in 2000 to 21% in 2022.
While the process might look messy now, it has improved a lot since Nigeria ended military rule in 1999. For instance, she adds, having a competitive third-party candidate like Obi "is a huge deal.”
"This would not happen in the US today. And it's a clear expression of the people’s discontent and frustration with the political establishment," Anku says. "People just need to get used to the fact that you may not always get the candidate you want."
A day after the elections, officials tally votes at a collation centre previously stormed by unknown assailants in Lagos, Nigeria on February 26, 2023.
What We’re Watching: Nigerian election results, Italian migrant tragedy, COVID lab leak report
Nigeria starts presidential vote count
Early results from Nigeria's presidential election are still trickling in Monday, as delays at some polling stations forced people to vote throughout the night on Saturday and the following day. Final numbers could take days, especially if the race is very tight. So far, the big news is that Peter Obi, a third-party insurgent posing the most serious threat to the Nigerian political establishment since the restoration of democracy in 1999, captured Lagos, the country's biggest city and state. Obi is facing off against ruling party candidate Bola Ahmed Tinubu and opposition hopeful Atiku Abubakar. To avoid a runoff, a candidate must win the popular vote and 25% of ballots in at least two-thirds of Nigeria's 36 states. Whoever comes out on top, the final result "will most likely leave a large chunk of Nigerians upset," tweeted Amaka Anku, head of Eurasia Group's Africa practice, who's covering the election on the ground. Anku highlighted the low voter turnout — although it's unclear whether fewer people actually showed up or if biometric ID verification prevented unregistered people from voting.
Migrant boat sinks off Italian coast
At least 62 people, including children, died after a rickety wooden boat carrying approximately 150 migrants sank off the coast of southern Italy on Sunday. Search and rescue teams found 80 survivors, all of them adults. The number of migrants crossing violent seas from northern Africa to reach Europe has accelerated recently, with 105,000 intercepted by Italy last year, up 38,000 from 2021. Far-right Italian PM Giorgia Meloni, who has vowed to crack down hard on asylum-seekers trying to arrive by sea, blamed human traffickers and demanded more help from EU leaders to address the crisis, while the opposition 5-Star Party derided her government’s migration policy. Meloni has placed restrictions on charity boats and refused to accept rescue ships, demanding other countries take in more refugees. Meloni's hardline stance on migration remains at odds with human rights groups and Brussels as well as most individual EU member states, but she is unlikely to back down — after all, she was elected by Italians to be tougher on this issue, which provokes strong emotions on both sides.
Where did COVID come from?
Did COVID-19 come from a lab? Some time ago, that was considered unlikely, but now a classified and updated US Energy Department report says the virus most likely came from a laboratory leak. This is a significant development because of the considerable scientific expertise at the DOE’s disposal, though it reportedly has “low confidence” in the finding. The FBI reached a similar conclusion a while back, yet opinions in the US intelligence community are as polarized as they can be, as other agencies maintain that the pandemic began with a transmission from animals to humans. The only thing most seem to agree on is that the virus was not part of a Chinese biological weapons program. The finding, which the DOE says is based on new evidence (yet no details are available), underscores the continuing controversy over the origins of COVID, the emergence of which, as well as China’s secrecy over it, has been a significant source of tension between Beijing and the rest of the word. Still, what has changed from a few months ago is that the lab leak theory has gone from mere conspiracy theory to something that just might be a plausible explanation to something we will probably never have a definitive answer to: where COVID really came from.Electoral campaign posters are seen ahead of Nigeria's Presidential elections, in Yola, Nigeria, February 23, 2023.
What We're Watching: Nigerians vote, Biden's World Bank pick
Nigeria's presidential election head-scratcher
Nigerians go to the polls Saturday to vote in what is being billed as the most open presidential election in Africa's most populous country since democracy was restored in 1999. That's mostly thanks to buzz about Peter Obi, a third-party candidate who's leading most polls ahead of both Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the ruling party's pick, and opposition candidate Atiku Abubakar. With almost half the electorate undecided, Obi faces tough odds. First, to win outright, he must get the most votes nationwide and at least 25% in at least two-thirds of Nigeria's 36 states – but he doesn’t have strong party machinery to turn out voters. Second, if no candidate meets both conditions, the election goes to a runoff between the most-voted for candidate and — here's where it gets complicated — the one who placed second in the highest number of states. Also, keep an eye out for the rollout of machines to verify biometric voter ID to curb fraud. If the devices malfunction or are not widely deployed, expect many Nigerians to consider the election anything but free and fair.
Interested in the Nigerian election? Listen to Amaka Anku, head of Eurasia Group’s Africa practice, on this GZERO podcast in collaboration with The Center for Global Development podcast.
Biden picks ex-credit card exec to lead World Bank
President Joe Biden will nominate former Mastercard CEO Ajay Banga to replace the outgoing David Malpass as president of the World Bank. (The institution is traditionally led by a US citizen picked by the White House, while a European heads the International Monetary Fund, its sister org.) The selection of Banga is somewhat puzzling since he lacks a specific or public-sector background in climate change. The Biden administration wants the World Bank to focus on the issue, and Banga’s nomination comes just months after Malpass got in a political firestorm over his views on climate science. (He later denied being a climate denier on GZERO World.) Still, Banga has experience managing a multinational corporation and prioritized the climate at Mastercard. Perhaps Biden thinks he can run the World Bank more like, well, a bank, to mobilize private-sector climate finance — cash to help mainly developing nations do things like transition to more green energy.
A woman stands in front of electoral campaign posters of Presidential candidate Atiku Abubakar and members of the People's Democratic Party, ahead of Nigeria's Presidential elections, in Yola, Nigeria, February 21, 2023.
Podcast: Nigeria’s presidential election is a critical moment for Africa
Listen: On February 25, Africa’s most populous nation heads to the polls to vote for a new president in what is shaping up to be a hotly contested race. Nigeria has one of the fastest growing populations globally, one that could surpass the United States by 2050. And it’s a young country—75% of registered voters are under 50 years old. The candidates, Bola Ahmed Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Atiku Abubakar of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), and Peter Obi from the Labour Party are all vying to replace the outgoing President Muhammadu Buhari.
To help you better understand the Nigerian election and what’s at stake, GZERO is handing over this podcast feed today to Amaka Anku, Head of Eurasia Group’s Africa practice. She brings us a conversation from the The Center for Global Development podcast moderated by CGD’s Senior Policy Fellow Gyude Moore.
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