India and Pakistan are on the brink of war again after India this week launched airstrikes against what it said were militant camps in Pakistan and Pakistani-administered Kashmir.
The move was a response to a recent terror attack in Indian-administered Kashmir, which New Delhi blamed on Pakistan. Islamabad denies the allegations.
This is the most serious flare-up in decades between the two nuclear-armed rivals, who have had three major conflicts since the 1960s.
Whether things get worse from here is now up to Pakistan, says Pramit Pal Chauduri, lead South Asia analyst at Eurasia Group.
“Pakistan [will] decide whether it goes further up the escalation ladder,” he says, noting that Pakistani forces shot several Indian aircraft during the skirmish.
“Having shot down at least three Indian fighters, it seems it is in a position to claim victory and bring the clash to an end.”
Whether it does may turn in part on calculations about the risk of deeper conflict with a much larger neighbor. Here’s a look at how the conventional and nuclear forces of the two countries stack up.