Turkey offers to mediate in Sudanese civil war

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan called Sudanese Armed Forces Gen. Abdel-Fattah al-Burhan on Friday offering to help resolve the country’s civil war by mediating negotiations with the rebels and their alleged backers, the United Arab Emirates. The offer comes just days after Erdoğan negotiated an agreement to avoid conflict between Ethiopia and Somalia over port access, as Turkey looms ever larger in the politics of the Horn of Africa.

An end to the fighting is desperately needed. Nearly 15 million Sudanese have fled their homes, according to the International Organization for Migration, one of the worst refugee crises in modern history. Aid organizations struggle to reach major population centers due to intense fighting, leading to widespread hunger and disease. And in the western region of Darfur, Rapid Support Forces are accused of carrying out genocidal violence and mass rape against Black ethnic groups like the Masalit and Fur.

US and Saudi-led negotiations produced a ceasefire in May of 2023, only for it to collapse within 24 hours. Since then, the violence has raged unchecked. SAF airstrikes have devastated the capital Khartoum, but they are unable to dislodge RSF infantry, allegedly supplied via UAE airlifts to neighboring Chad. Abu Dhabi denies any involvement.

Why is Turkey getting involved? For a shot at swaying the post-war order in its favor. Ankara and Abu Dhabi’s relations have been severely strained in the aftermath of the 2011 Arab Spring, when they have found themselves backing opposing sides of crises in Egypt, Syria, Yemen, and Qatar, as well as diplomatic normalization with Israel. Finding a mediated end to the war reduces the risk that the allegedly Emirati-backed RSF comes out on top.

Avoiding that outcome plays into Turkey’s broader strategy in northeast Africa, which it sees as a key source of future economic growth and political clout. Turkey spent the last decade actively encouraging investment and trade with Sudan and Ethiopia, and the military has provided major backing to Somalia in an effort to stabilize the strategically-placed country. A stable, Turkish-aligned Red Sea coast could present both a tempting market and a key check on regional rivals in the Middle East.