What We're Watching

Can a wider Middle East war be averted?

Israeli Druze mourners gathered for the funeral of the 12 children and teens killed in a Hezbollah rocket strike a day earlier at a soccer field at the village of Majdal Shams in the Golan Heights. Majdal Shams, Israel. July 28th 2024.
Israeli Druze mourners gathered for the funeral of the 12 children and teens killed in a Hezbollah rocket strike a day earlier at a soccer field at the village of Majdal Shams in the Golan Heights. Majdal Shams, Israel. July 28th 2024.
Matan Golan/Sipa USA via Reuters Connect

A deadly rocket strike killed 12 youths playing on a soccer field in the Israeli-controlled village of Majdal Shams in the Golan Heights on Saturday. The village is largely inhabited by Druze, a small syncretic ethno-religious group also found in Syria and Lebanon. Hezbollah denies responsibility, and Beirut has called for an international investigation while claiming the incident may have been a “mistake” by either the terror group or Israeli forces, rather than a deliberate attack.

But that’s not the view in Jerusalem or Washington. The Israeli Ministry of Foreign Affairs saysHezbollah has “crossed all red lines,” and on Sunday morning the Israeli military responded withretaliatory strikes against Hezbollah targets across Lebanon, including weapons depots and infrastructure in the Bekaa Valley.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinkenexpressed support for Israel's right to self-defense, and US National Security Council Spokesperson Adrienne Watson affirmed that the attack was conducted by Hezbollah. “It was their rocket, and launched from an area they control.”

At the same time, US and world leaders are cautioning against escalation. The United Nations condemned the attack andurged restraint from both sides, warning that further conflict could “engulf the entire region in a catastrophe beyond belief.” As of Sunday, the White House was talking with both the Israeli and Lebanese governments to try and contain the conflict as Israel’s War Cabinet met to consider its further response.

A Turkish surprise. Meanwhile, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogansaid he might intervene in Israel, “just like we entered Karabakh, just like we entered Libya,” if Israel continued to victimize Palestinians in Gaza. He was speaking at a televised meeting of his party’s supporters in his hometown, and it is not clear what he meant. Turkey is a NATO ally, and war with Israel would deeply complicate the US position in the region.

We’ll be watching whether this latest incident in the Golan Heights becomes the tipping point for what many have feared for months: a greater regional war.

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