Former Bank of Canada and Bank of England Governor Mark Carney announcing his bid to replace Prime Minister Justin Trudeau as leader of the ruling Liberal Party, in Edmonton, Alberta, Canada, on Jan. 16, 2025.
Is federal public opinion changing in Canada? Several recent polls show a resurgence for the Liberal Party, paralleled by a decline in Conservative support. For the past year, the Conservatives have led with double-digit margins, most recently as high as 25% just a month ago. But this advantage has steadily diminished, with the latest EKOS survey showing the gap narrowing to a mere three points as of late January.
In addition to EKOS, Leger’s January 2025 survey shows the Conservative lead shrinking to 18 points, with the Liberals gaining four percentage points since the last measurement. Similarly, Abacus Data reports a decrease in the Conservative lead, now standing at 21 points, reflecting a three-point drop for the Conservatives and a two-point rise for the Liberals. An aggregation of public opinion surveys still shows the Conservatives forming a majority government, however, but with slightly fewer seats than last month.
What’s behind the shift? Both Trudeau and Trump. Polls started moving after unpopular Prime Minister Justin Trudeau resigned in early January, and after President Donald Trump took office and threatened to impose 25% tariffs on Canadians and make Canada the 51st state. Additionally, the entry of former Bank of Canada and Bank of England Governor Mark Carney into the Liberal leadership race has upped the party’s appeal: Polls show he is the best positioned of the candidates to expand the party’s voter pool, as Canadians look for a “Captain Canada” to stand up for their country and cure its economic malaise.
Is AI advancing faster than our ability to regulate it? At the 2026 US-Canada Summit in Toronto, hosted by Eurasia Group and RBC, Ian Bremmer says the biggest issue with AI is not the technology itself, but the lack of governance keeping pace with its rapid development and rollout.
The interim agreement to end the war, signed by both sides on Wednesday, appears to tilt toward Iran. But the regime remains vulnerable.
On June 14, the US and Iran announced a deal to end the war. A signing ceremony is set for Friday. The terms include an immediate ceasefire on all fronts. With both sides spinning the deal as a victory, there are plenty of ways for this to go wrong.
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