India is set to surpass Japan as the world's fourth-largest economy by 2025, earlier than previous forecasts. This marks Japan’s second year of decline in global GDP rankings, after falling from third to fourth place behind Germany in 2023.
According to the International Monetary Fund, India’s nominal GDP will top $4.34 trillion next year, slightly above Japan’s projected $4.31 trillion. The subcontinent’s GDP already overtook that of the United Kingdom in 2022 and grew by 7.8% in 2023.
India's economic ascent has been powered by strong domestic demand, as its population surpassed that of China last year. It experienceddouble-digit growth in its steel, cement, and automobile manufacturing sectors. India now uses its Rupee rather than the dollar for trading with 27 countries, and its 134 billion online transactions account for46% of all global digital payments.
In contrast, Japan's GDP growth lagged at 1.9% in 2023 after decades of stagnation, and the OECD projects an anemic 0.5% increase in 2024. Japan’s woes are exacerbated by its aging population, low productivity, and a stubbornly weak yen.
None of this is good news for the government of Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, amid a swirling party finance scandal and abysmal approval ratings. He’ll need to survive a leadership election in the fall for his Liberal Democratic Party, which will be looking for a leader to take them into national elections next year. With headlines like these, Kishida is expected to face defeat.China was largely absent from the core conversations at the 2026 Munich Security Conference. That, says Ian Bremmer, is telling.
At the 2026 Munich Security Conference, Brad Smith announces the launch of the Trusted Tech Alliance, a coalition of global technology leaders, including Microsoft, committing to secure cross-border tech flows, ethical governance, and stronger data protections.
Tune in today at 12pm ET/6pm CET for the live premiere of our Global Stage from the 2026 Munich Security Conference, where our panel of experts takes aim at the latest global security challenges. NY Times National Security Correspondent David Sanger moderates the discussion with Benedetta Berti, Secretary General, NATO Parliamentary Assembly; Ian Bremmer, President & Co-founder, Eurasia Group & GZERO Media; Dr. Wolfgang Dierker, Global Head of Government Affairs, SAP; and Brad Smith, Vice Chair & President, Microsoft.