“All fronts, all the time”: an interview on Trump, Canada, and Carney with the Hon. Jean Charest

Donald Trump’s return to the White House has upended the long-standing and close US-Canada friendship in ways that were once unthinkable. But how exactly should Ottawa deal with the “America First” president? Is all of the upheaval merely a readjustment, or is the relationship fundamentally different now?

Few people are better positioned to assess the situation than the Hon. Jean Charest, former premier of Quebec, former federal cabinet minister and Progressive Conservative leader, and one of Canada’s most expert voices on international affairs and trade.

GZERO’s Tasha Kheiriddin sat down with Charest this week to learn what he thinks of what has transpired and how the two countries should move forward. Their conversation has been edited for length and clarity.

Q: Let’s talk about the recent meeting between Mark Carney and Donald Trump.Was it a win for Canada?

A: A win. Carney’s reply on the 51st state was a very well-thought-out response, as was saying, “Some things are not for sale, like the White House where we are now.” They got the tone right, they got the message right, and the level of seduction was just right without being too strong. And then they could get on with business.

Q: As you know from experience, relationships between Canada and the US are critical. How can Carney keep it in a positive place?

A: The key for Mr. Carney will be to seek out and identify the things that he can help Mr. Trump accomplish. What are his objectives? Be helpful for him, not confrontational.

Q: Let’s talk about the renegotiation of CUSMA, or USMCA. Trump said, “It will happen” but was vague about the time frame. Should Canada push for a faster renegotiation, or just focus on the tariffs?

A: I would do both. I’ll share an anecdote with you. I was on the set of CNN in Washington a few days after April 2. I crossed paths with Howard Lutnick, whom I didn’t know. We introduced each other and it’s kind of a one-, two-minute conversation where you just say hello. But three times he mentioned CUSMA, three times. So that’s obviously what they have in mind.

Why? Because it’s something you can work off, as opposed to reinventing it. But there’s a technical part to renegotiating CUSMA, a consultation process within Congress, 240 days. And so that’s a process that we should initiate as rapidly as possible.

In the meantime, we need to undo the tariffs on aluminum and steel. And that’ll take some time. The issue on steel is China, their overproduction and flooding the markets. And that reverberates all the way into the Canadian market and then the American market.

Q: Where do you think Congress will land on tariffs, and how important do you think voices from industry will be, from both sides of the border?

A: We should be on all fronts, all the time. Full press. There are no small rooms, there are no people we’re talking to who are not important. Governors, mayors, business people, congressmen, senators. This will break the logjam, if there is a concert of people who have had contact with Canadians and are able to repeat our lines.

And Trump may be sanctioned by the markets if he doesn’t change course. If we can offer him an off-ramp that would allow him to signal to the markets that we are moving ahead, that would reassure them.

Q: Let’s talk about China. We know that Trump is focused on China in his trade war. But Canada has issues with China, which has tariffed our canola and seafood. How should Canada act to protect our industries but not jeopardize our relationship with the US?

A: I think the short-term threat is that the Americans conclude a trade deal at the expense of Canada, which they’ve done before. We’re also anticipating that the Americans will want to include restrictions on dealing with China in their trade deals.

We have to better identify what our core interests are with China. Now, that includes selling them goods and agricultural products and energy: natural gas, LNG, and oil. We are replacing the energy that the Americans are not selling to China with Trans Mountain. Their sales have gone down, ours have gone up radically. So, energy is the future in the relationship with China as far as I’m concerned.

Q: Let’s talk about the military. Trump praised Canada for ramping up our military commitments. What more should our government do?

A: I think one thing that Prime Minister Carney is intuitively right about is enlarging the discussion to cooperation, which includes NORAD. It isn’t just about buying equipment, it isn’t just about doing more, it’s also about cooperation that is fundamental to the security of the United States and Canada.

There are major procurement issues in terms of NORAD and modernizing. There’s a reinvestment that’s happening now that I think is covered at least at 90% by the Americans and 10% by us, which is not a very good story on the Canadian side. And then there’s spending 2% of GDP. Prime Minister Carney has accelerated the time frame to 2030 as opposed to 2032, which is fine. Trump is right about that.

Q: Fentanyl and border security came up as well. We are making progress on both fronts. How important do you think that will be going forward?

A: We have to tell our story. There’s an issue of proportionality on the border. Fentanyl is a horrible scourge on our society. But we are not the problem. And we’re not the problem on immigration, so we don’t want to become the problem. I think what we’re doing now pretty much covers it.

Q: During the recent election campaign, Carney said the relationship we had between Canada and the US is over. After the meeting this week, do you think that’s true? Or is it fundamentally changed?

A: I think most of us would prefer to say it’s fundamentally changed. The word over sounds pretty absolute.

Q: It does.

A: I mean, as any of us who’ve been in a relationship, if you tell your partner it’s over, you’re not going to be sleeping in the same bed anymore, living in the same house. So it’s not over. Whatever happens, we will continue to be each other’s biggest customers. But even when Mr. Trump leaves office, it would be a mistake for us to believe that we’re going to return to something “normal.” It’s fundamentally changed. I don’t think it’s over, but it won’t return to what it was before.