President Trump is in a(nother) Russia bind

It's been a bad week at the office for President Trump. Not only have coronavirus cases in the US been soaring, but The New York Times' bombshell report alleging that Russia paid bounties to the Taliban to kill US troops in Afghanistan has continued to make headlines. While details about the extent of the Russian bounty program — and how long it's been going on for — remain murky, President Trump now finds himself in a massive bind on this issue.

Here are three key questions to consider.

First, what did he know and when did he know it? The media has been abuzz with competing narratives of what briefings President Trump received from the intelligence community, and when he received them.

Some reports say that presidential aides opted not to brief President Trump on the Russian bounties, knowing Trump's propensity to rebuff intelligence that implicates President Putin, with whom he's famously tried to cultivate close ties.

Other reports claim that President Trump wasbriefed on the matter as far back as 2019, but forgot about it, or worse, that he chose to do nothing and gave the Kremlin carte blanche to continue its activities in Afghanistan.

Either way, it's a very bad look for a president who has painted himself as the ally of the military community, a pillar of the Republican base.

Second, what might the American response be? The alleged Russian bounty scheme follows a precedent of the Kremlin flouting international norms and human rights — and bating the United States to respond. Less than five months out from November's election, this latest crisis presents a Catch-22 for President Trump: If he does something merely symbolic to push back against Russia, he could walk away looking weak and ineffectual at a time when a majority of Americans say that the President's handling of the global health crisis has been…weak and ineffectual.

But if Trump goes big to prove to his detractors that he's not in Putin's pocket — say through serious sanctions, a cyber-response, or even something on the ground in Afghanistan — he risks significant escalation with Moscow at a time when relations between the two countries are at their lowest point since the Cold War. (Consider that the US and Russia, who together possess 90 percent of the world's nuclear weapons, are currently haggling over how, and if, to extend the New START treaty, set to expire in February, which limits the number of long-range nuclear weapons that each side can deploy.)

Indeed, no one knows how the White House will respond, but if President Trump's twitter feed offers some insight into his thinking — he's called the allegations a politically-motivated "hoax" — he seems reluctant to respond forcefully.

Third, what will the political fallout for President Trump be? This crisis comes at a time when the national security establishment, traditionally removed from everyday politics, has expressed increasing discontent with the Trump presidency. Meanwhile, the episode could also be straining Trump's ties with the military community, many of whom are stalwart Republicans. It's too early to say what things will look like by November, but any erosion of support from veterans, particularly in crucial swing states where they live in large numbers (think Florida, Virginia, and North Carolina) could be bad news for President Trump.

Still, President Trump has wriggled out of countless scandals, including ones that seemed to position him uncomfortably close to Russia. Can he pull it off again?

More from GZERO Media

Supporters of main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) attend a rally to protest against the arrest of Ekrem Imamoglu, the mayor of Istanbul and main rival of President Tayyip Erdogan, a day after the removal of the CHP's Istanbul provincial head Ozgur Celik by a court over alleged irregularities in a 2023 CHP provincial congress, in Istanbul, Turkey, September 3, 2025.
REUTERS/Umit Bektas/File Photo

After a weekend of mass protests in Turkey, a court in Ankara has postponed its decision in a highly charged case that could oust Turkey’s main opposition leader - and boost the fortunes of long-time President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.

- YouTube

China is going all in on renewables, breaking monthly records on clean energy installation and generation. Bill McKibben tells Ian Bremmer that Beijing's bet on solar and wind gives them a competitive edge on a new episode of GZERO World.

Stephen Graham, winner of Best Lead Actor in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie and Best Writing for a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie, Owen Cooper, Best Supporting Actor in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie, and Erin Doherty, Best Supporting Actress in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie, for "Adolescence", Best Limited or Anthology Series pose with their awards at the 77th Primetime Emmy Awards in Los Angeles, California, U.S., September 14, 2025.
REUTERS/Daniel Cole

8: Netflix teen murder series "Adolescence" won eight Emmys including for best limited series. Supporting actor Owen Cooper,15, became the youngest male actor to win an Emmy.

Senior U.S. and Chinese led by U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng and Chinese trade negotiator Li Chenggang meet to discuss trade and economic issues and TikTok, in Madrid, Spain, September 14, 2025.
United States Treasury/Handout via Reuters.

In an announcement teeming with viral potential, the White House said the US and China have outlined a deal for TikTok to continue operating in the US.

U.S. President Donald Trump holds a letter from Britain's King Charles as he meets with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer in the Oval Office at the White House in Washington, D.C., U.S., February 27, 2025.
REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque/File Photo

As US President Donald Trump travels to the United Kingdom this week, there is an unnerving sense in which the ghost of Christmas past will be greeting the potential ghost of Christmas yet to come.