Trump Vows Mexico Tariffs: Who would they Hit, and Why?

President Donald Trump tweeted yesterday that, beginning on June 10, the United States would impose a 5 percent tariff on all goods entering the US from Mexico "until such time as illegal migrants coming through Mexico, and into our Country, STOP." He added that the tariff rate would steadily rise "until the illegal immigration problem is remedied."

A few thoughts:

This will affect lots of things that Americans buy: Mexico recently became the US' largest trade partner (in part because of the US-China trade spat). If these tariffs move forward, Americans looking to buy cars, electronics, and the makings of a fresh salad will pay more. Note: tomato-lovers and avocados-aficionados are particularly exposed.

Mexico can retaliate, a bit. Mexico's economy is much smaller than its northern neighbor's, so it has less leverage. But it can still target American exporters of meat, cheese, potatoes, cranberries, bourbon and speedboats (speedboats!) with retaliatory tariffs that could cripple their sales in Mexico, a major market. Mexico has done this once before, in response to Trump's metals tariffs last year.

The USMCA trade agreement, also known as NAFTA 2.0, is in serious jeopardy. The agreement has not been ratified in either the US or Mexico. US Democrats, led by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, object to parts of the agreement and have delayed a vote. Trump appears to be preparing to force that vote anyway. If it comes, the treaty may well be rejected.

Will it work? Trump has made the fight against illegal immigration the heart of his political message since he first launched his presidential campaign. Turning the screws on Mexico over this issue plays well with his base as he heads into 2020. But a total "STOP" to undocumented migrant flows is virtually impossible, so what specifically does he want from Mexico now? Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador has dispatched an envoy to Washington to find out.

Could it backfire? These tariffs would certainly hurt the Mexican economy far more than the US economy. But if Mexico's economy sinks, more people will want to leave Mexico, meaning more pressure at the US-Mexican border. And a crippled economy will leave the Mexican government with less money to address precisely the border problems that Trump says he wants solved.

Bottom line: The world is again reacting to a tweet, and Trump could just as easily reverse this plan. If not, these tariffs will have serious implications for Latin America's second-largest economy, for American consumers, and for US politics ahead of the presidential election.

Keep your eye on the timeline.

More from GZERO Media

Stephen Graham, winner of Best Lead Actor in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie and Best Writing for a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie, Owen Cooper, Best Supporting Actor in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie, and Erin Doherty, Best Supporting Actress in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie, for "Adolescence", Best Limited or Anthology Series pose with their awards at the 77th Primetime Emmy Awards in Los Angeles, California, U.S., September 14, 2025.
REUTERS/Daniel Cole

8: Netflix teen murder series "Adolescence" won eight Emmys including for best limited series. Supporting actor Owen Cooper,15, became the youngest male actor to win an Emmy.

Senior U.S. and Chinese led by U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng and Chinese trade negotiator Li Chenggang meet to discuss trade and economic issues and TikTok, in Madrid, Spain, September 14, 2025.
United States Treasury/Handout via Reuters.

In an announcement teeming with viral potential, the White House said the US and China have outlined a deal for TikTok to continue operating in the US.

U.S. President Donald Trump holds a letter from Britain's King Charles as he meets with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer in the Oval Office at the White House in Washington, D.C., U.S., February 27, 2025.
REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque/File Photo

As US President Donald Trump travels to the United Kingdom this week, there is an unnerving sense in which the ghost of Christmas past will be greeting the potential ghost of Christmas yet to come.

A combination photo shows a person of interest in the fatal shooting of U.S. right-wing activist and commentator Charlie Kirk during an event at Utah Valley University, in Orem, Utah, U.S. shown in security footage released by the Utah Department of Public Safety on September 11, 2025.
Utah Department of Public Safety/Handout via REUTERS