Breaking: GZERO Media’s “decision desk” is now ready to project that Vladimir V. Putin will be reelected president of Russia this weekend. We’re walking out on this limb because the Kremlin controls most media in Russia, any opposition candidate who might embarrass Putin is barred from running, and protests are not tolerated.
But there are a few factors worth watching. Will the government get the turnout it wants? Probably. As Eurasia Group’s Alex Brideau told us yesterday, “Government employees, soldiers, and people working for state-owned companies will be under pressure to vote and ensure others vote for Putin, too.” Even if turnout is low, Russian state media will likely tell us it was high.
We should also watch to see if protesters, including supporters of recently deceased political prisoner Alexei Navalny, ignore the risk of arrest, violence, or both to hit the streets of Russia’s largest cities.
The wildcard to watch is whether Ukraine has plans to disrupt the voting in whatever way possible. Recent drone attacks on Russian infrastructure have demonstrated the Ukrainian military’s long reach.
Yes, this carefully choreographed election will probably go off pretty much exactly as planned. But some inside Russia and beyond would like to use this occasion to make their own statements on Russia’s government and its Potemkin democracy.
The European Union just pulled off something that, a year ago, seemed politically impossible: it froze $247 billion in Russian central bank assets indefinitely, stripping the Kremlin of one of its most reliable pressure points.
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Of all the threats to the world, what are the top 10 most urgent global risks for 2026? On Monday, January 5, at 12 pm ET, join us for a livestream discussion with Ian Bremmer and global experts to discuss the Top Risks of 2025 report from Eurasia Group. This report will mark twenty years of Ian Bremmer’s annual forecast of the political risks that are most likely to play out over the year. Event link: gzeromedia.com/toprisks
In this episode of Tools and Weapons, Microsoft Vice Chair and President Brad Smith sits down with Ed Policy, President and CEO of the Green Bay Packers, to discuss how purpose-driven leadership and innovation are shaping the future of one of the world’s most iconic sports franchises. Ed shares how technology and community-focused initiatives, from Titletown Tech to health and safety innovations on the field, are transforming not just the game of football, but the economy and culture of Green Bay itself. He explains how combining strategic vision with investment in local startups is keeping talent in the Midwest and creating opportunities that extend far beyond Lambeau Field.
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