What to watch in this weekend’s Russian presidential “election”

​A member of a local electoral commission installs an electronic voting machine at a polling station during preparations for the presidential election, in Moscow, Russia, March 14, 2024.
A member of a local electoral commission installs an electronic voting machine at a polling station during preparations for the presidential election, in Moscow, Russia, March 14, 2024.
REUTERS/Evgenia Novozhenina

Breaking: GZERO Media’s “decision desk” is now ready to project that Vladimir V. Putin will be reelected president of Russia this weekend. We’re walking out on this limb because the Kremlin controls most media in Russia, any opposition candidate who might embarrass Putin is barred from running, and protests are not tolerated.

But there are a few factors worth watching. Will the government get the turnout it wants? Probably. As Eurasia Group’s Alex Brideau told us yesterday, “Government employees, soldiers, and people working for state-owned companies will be under pressure to vote and ensure others vote for Putin, too.” Even if turnout is low, Russian state media will likely tell us it was high.

We should also watch to see if protesters, including supporters of recently deceased political prisoner Alexei Navalny, ignore the risk of arrest, violence, or both to hit the streets of Russia’s largest cities.

The wildcard to watch is whether Ukraine has plans to disrupt the voting in whatever way possible. Recent drone attacks on Russian infrastructure have demonstrated the Ukrainian military’s long reach.

Yes, this carefully choreographed election will probably go off pretty much exactly as planned. But some inside Russia and beyond would like to use this occasion to make their own statements on Russia’s government and its Potemkin democracy.

More from GZERO Media

This summer, Microsoft released the 2025 Responsible AI Transparency Report, demonstrating Microsoft’s sustained commitment to earning trust at a pace that matches AI innovation. The report outlines new developments in how we build and deploy AI systems responsibly, how we support our customers, and how we learn, evolve, and grow. It highlights our strengthened incident response processes, enhanced risk assessments and mitigations, and proactive regulatory alignment. It also covers new tools and practices we offer our customers to support their AI risk governance efforts, as well as how we work with stakeholders around the world to work towards governance approaches that build trust. You can read the report here.

- YouTube

Brazil’s Supreme Court has sentenced former President Jair Bolsonaro to 27 years in prison for plotting to overturn the 2022 election and allegedly conspiring to assassinate President Lula. In this week's "ask ian," Ian Bremmer says the verdict highlights how “your response… has nothing to do with rule of law. It has everything to do with tribal political affiliation.”

Supporters of main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) attend a rally to protest against the arrest of Ekrem Imamoglu, the mayor of Istanbul and main rival of President Tayyip Erdogan, a day after the removal of the CHP's Istanbul provincial head Ozgur Celik by a court over alleged irregularities in a 2023 CHP provincial congress, in Istanbul, Turkey, September 3, 2025.
REUTERS/Umit Bektas/File Photo

After a weekend of mass protests in Turkey, a court in Ankara has postponed its decision in a highly charged case that could oust Turkey’s main opposition leader – and boost the fortunes of long-time President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.

- YouTube

China is going all in on renewables, breaking monthly records on clean energy installation and generation. Bill McKibben tells Ian Bremmer that Beijing's bet on solar and wind gives them a competitive edge on a new episode of GZERO World.

Stephen Graham, winner of Best Lead Actor in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie and Best Writing for a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie, Owen Cooper, Best Supporting Actor in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie, and Erin Doherty, Best Supporting Actress in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie, for "Adolescence", Best Limited or Anthology Series pose with their awards at the 77th Primetime Emmy Awards in Los Angeles, California, U.S., September 14, 2025.
REUTERS/Daniel Cole

8: Netflix teen murder series "Adolescence" won eight Emmys including for best limited series. Supporting actor Owen Cooper,15, became the youngest male actor to win an Emmy.