Might Iran go soft on the West?

Iran’s Guardian Council approved six candidates – five hardliner conservatives and one seemingly safe reformist – earlier this month to run in a June 28 snap election to replace President Ebrahim Raisi, who was killed in a plane crash last month. The council’s inclusion of reformist Masoud Pezeshkian surprised many, but even more shockingly, he has proven an unlikely but fierce competitor against prominent right-wing opponents. Pezeshkian is drawing support from younger voters and disillusioned Iranians who, in years past, boycotted elections. Meanwhile, the conservative vote is being split among the five other candidates.

On the campaign trail, Pezeshkian has shared his intention of improving relations with the US – namely by reviving the 2015 nuclear deal – and softening Iran’s hijab law, both of which would constitute dramatic shifts in policy. Although his growing popularity worries leaders in Iran’s far-right government, even a reformist president is unlikely to bring about much change within the country’s hard-right government – especially a budding friendship with the US.

“If the challenge of winning the election seems large,” says Eurasia Group’s Iran expert, Gregory Brew, “the even greater challenge would be governing effectively as a reformist president – a challenge previous Iranian presidents, such as Mohammed Khatami and Hasan Rouhani, have largely failed to overcome.”

So could the US have a new friend in Iran? Short answer: probably not.

Pezeshkian faces a tough battle to beat hardline conservatives (and also Iran’s most dedicated voters), and the greatest opposition does not come from the people, but the Iranian government.