No, Meloni is probably not going rogue

Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has accused EU leadership of falling prey to fake news after they issued a report highlighting press freedom issues in the country. The spat comes a week after Meloni abstained from voting for Ursula von der Leyen to lead the European Commission and instructed members of her Brothers of Italy party to vote against von der Leyen’s confirmation.

The two moments of tension have many wondering: Is a storm brewing in Brussels?

Probably not, according to Eurasia Group’s Europe Managing Director Mujtaba Rahman, who believes “the narrative of a fundamental split between Meloni and von der Leyen, Rome and Brussels, is being overdone.”

“Meloni has little to gain from a split, and von der Leyen also wants to avoid confrontation,” he adds.

Over the past two years, Meloni has forged better-than-expected ties with EU leadership, especially after von der Leyen backed the Italian leader’s tough approach to migration and agreed to change some of the original spending plans for Italy’s €200 billion share of EU recovery funds ahead of her reelection.

“Meloni’s abstention was tactical,” says Rahman. “Her strategic — and far more important decision — was to not join the new far-right grouping in the European Parliament.” The group, led by Viktor Orban and Marine Le Pen, was blocked from holding the top jobs in any committees, despite being the third largest group in parliament.