Turkey confirmed Thursday that it has signed a defense agreement with Somalia. The deal commits Ankara to defending Somali waters and to helping Mogadishu build up its navy against “foreign interference” – a veiled reference to rising tensions with Ethiopia.
Last month, Addis Ababa signed a memorandum of understanding with the breakaway state of Somaliland allowing Ethiopia to utilize the port of Berbera in exchange for recognizing Somaliland’s independence. Ethiopia is the world’s most populous landlocked country, so securing sea access is vital, but Mogadishu says the deal is an unacceptable violation of its sovereignty.
Could it come to war? The United States is certainly concerned, with Washington’s top Africa diplomat, Assistant Secretary of State Molly Phee, shuttling between meetings with Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and telling reporters “the region can ill-afford more conflict.” The European and African Unions, the Arab League, and Egypt are all echoing US and Turkish calls for Somali sovereignty to be respected.
But we’ve got our eye on the United Arab Emirates, which previously facilitated ties between Ethiopia and Somaliland and could lean on its growing military influence in the Horn of Africa to sway the course of events – particularly with African Union troops set to pull out of Somalia this year.In this "ask ian," Ian Bremmer breaks down the rapidly unraveling situation following the US announcement of “Project Freedom” and why tensions with Iran are escalating again.
Will Japan rewrite its rules of war? Europe meets (again) to shape its own defense destiny, US to “guide” ships through Hormuz
Putin is increasingly paranoid, according to a Financial Times report out today. Security has been tightened, more time is being spent in underground bunkers, and the vast majority of his attention is being absorbed by Russia’s war with Ukraine. One reason of his concern is said to be Ukraine’s drone capabilities, which have demonstrated an ability to strike Russian airfields thousands of miles from Kyiv.
There are signs AI could ripple through the economy much faster than past innovations. At the 2026 World Bank/IMF Spring Meetings, GZERO’s Tony Maciulis asked Microsoft's Vickie Robinson what it will take to prepare economies for the age of AI and how quickly it needs to happen.