Think back to 2016 and recall how Donald Trump absolutely dominated media coverage and, despite repeated scandals, won the White House. Four years later, he nearly repeated the feat.
Today, 2024 is shaping up for a similar focus as the former president’s first criminal trial gets underway in New York, with the spectacle of juror selection proceeding slowly as the sides try to find mutually acceptable, “unbiased” jurors. It was two steps forward, two steps back today as two of the seven jurors sworn in earlier this week were excused from the trial.
While recent polls have somevoters coming around to Joe Biden on the economy, the race is close – in fact, other polls have Trump ahead on economic matters. Trump’s capacity to stay competitive so far suggests that even his persistent legal troubles might not hurt him with his base. But a recent poll found that 36% of independent voters would be “less likely to support [Donald] Trump” if he’s convicted on any of the 34 felony charges in the so-called hush money case.
Up north, the Trudeau government is preparing for a possible Trump return. This means maintaining a Team Canada approach, working across levels of government, departments, and economic sectors on both sides of the border to prepare and protect the country from whatever uncertainties might follow a Trump win. News this week suggests that could include a plan to devalue the US dollar to close trade imbalances, a move that would throw the US-Canadian free trade relationship into chaos and would require Canada to play ball.
As Graeme Thompson, a senior analyst at Eurasia Group says, US policies have a major impact on Canada. “If the US ever went forward with a plan to devalue the dollar,” he says, “it would put a lot of pressure on Canadian policymakers to stay aligned with the US or else risk a comparatively overvalued loonie, which would in turn make Canadian exports less competitive.”
So it won’t just be Americans following every beat of Trump’s trial and the months to come as the former president attempts a comeback. Canadian policymakers – and the global banking and business communities – will keep a close watch and prepare contingency plans for whatever may come after Nov. 5.