Canada’s Liberals close in on all-time comeback

On Monday, Canadians will vote in the country’s 45th general election. As things stand, the incumbent Liberal Party and its newly minted Prime Minister Mark Carney are the favorites. If they manage to pull it off, it will mark an extraordinary comeback from being down 25 points in January. But that was before former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced his plan to resign, and just after Donald Trump began threatening the country with tariffs and statehood.

A record-breaking 7.3 million Canadians voted in early polls over the long Easter weekend, a 25% jump from early turnout during the 2021 election. The early vote is likely breaking for the Liberals, who are favored among early and likely voters, according to David Coletto of Abacus Data.

The polls have narrowed a bit recently, but polling aggregator and projection site 338 Canada has the Liberals up five points on average over the Conservatives as of Wednesday, while the CBC’s Poll Tracker puts the Liberal advantage at just over 4 points, with a 77% shot at winning a majority.

The Liberals enjoy a more efficient distribution of support in key cities and regions – particularly Ontario, Quebec, British Columbia, and Atlantic Canada – which means their probable voters are more spread out and likely to win them a seat compared to their rivals. But observers, including election experts Philippe Fournier and Éric Grenier, note the race is far from guaranteed for the incumbents, which could make for a dramatic election night.