As part of the latest episode of GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, New York Times columnist Tom Friedman breaks down what Israel’s recent military success against Iran means for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s political future—and for the ongoing war in Gaza. While Netanyahu appears to be in a stronger position geopolitically and domestically, Friedman warns that the deeper dynamics in Israel haven’t changed as much as they might seem. “The people who won this war for Israel... were, for the most part, the very same people who were in the streets of Israel for nine months against Netanyahu,” he says.

Despite the military gains, Friedman argues that the hard choices about Gaza remain unchanged: partner with an international Arab force and the Palestinian Authority, let local militias take over, or reoccupy Gaza permanently. The first option, he says, would dramatically shift Israel’s regional position: “If Bibi were to choose door number one... he wins the next five elections.” But with Netanyahu’s domestic opposition still raw and ideologically opposed to his vision, Friedman suggests the post-war political chemistry in Israel—and Iran—is about to get “really interesting.”

GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).

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