Don’t jump out the omicron window

With cases, and fears, of the new omicron variant spreading rapidly around the world, we sat down with Eurasia Group’s top public health expert, Scott Rosenstein, for a little perspective on what to worry about, what not to, and whether the pandemic will ever actually end.

Scott, we appear to be in the age of omicron now. On the scale of mild concern to apocalyptic jump-out-the-window panic, how worried should we really be?

Go over to the window, open it, and repeat the following: WE DON’T KNOW YET, BUT VIGILANCE IS WARRANTED. The current signals, which are still early and vague, suggest this variant may be highly transmissable, and that it has mutations that could potentially reduce – but not eliminate – the protection offered by current vaccines. In principle that means we have a variant that could cause a spike in cases and add to healthcare strains in places that thought the worst was behind them.

But don’t forget that the delta variant is still formidable – other variants have come and gone over the last year, unable to out-compete it. That still could happen here, for virological or immunological reasons we don’t yet know. So, the standard public health advice still applies: try to strike a balance between panic and complacency.

Talk a little more about delta. Are we better positioned to deal with omicron than we were when delta first showed up?

This time around it feels like we’re in a better position to understand and manage the threat, in part because Botswana and South Africa have an excellent, proactive genomic surveillance infrastructure that was built up in response to HIV/AIDS, and also because we have gleaned a lot of knowledge from previous variants. Add better treatment, prevalent rapid tests, and much higher vaccination rates, and there are a lot of reasons we aren’t going back to square one because of omicron.

Ok, but it feels like there’s a caveat coming here...

Well, on the other side of the equation is pandemic fatigue, worsening political polarization about the pandemic, and an information environment dominated by some of the dumbest takes imaginable (I’m looking at you, Covid immunity parties). So in addition to possibly more formidable mutations, there are still plenty of obstacles to a sensible, society-wide response.

Looking ahead, are we going to be trapped in an endless Groundhog's Day of new variants? Is there ever really going to be a "post-COVID" world?

I know this is unsatisfying, but yes and no. This virus is going to be with us for the foreseeable future and new variants are inevitable. But repeated exposure to this virus, through vaccination and/or infection, will mean that most people will be at considerably lower risk as time goes on. When exactly? Unclear. All of the herd immunity hot takes from 2020 have proven woefully inaccurate, so speculating with any specificity is probably a fool’s errand.

But many people have already transitioned to “living with the virus” in a kind of “pre-post-Covid” world. For communities, the main question remains: when will this virus stop wreaking havoc on healthcare systems and causing disastrous spikes in mortality? We’re clearly not there yet. And we aren’t going to simply wake up one day and be there. The most likely scenario is that we gradually transition away from an emergency to a long-term disease management posture, with most of us living with the virus most of the time, occasionally having to adjust our behavior during spikes (i.e. boosters, masks, rapid testing, etc) while recognizing the threat to more vulnerable populations.

Anything else that you think is important about this story that isn’t being covered properly?

Public health policy is about tradeoffs. There is rarely a purely good option on the table, it’s almost always a question of making the least bad choice in a highly uncertain and fluid information environment. Omicron is a perfect example of this. We will learn more in the coming weeks. As we do, we’ll need to figure out the best approach to vaccination, travel, indoor congregation, etc., while recognizing that all of these decisions will have some adverse outcomes.

Societies will need to have difficult conversations about tradeoffs, whether they like it or not. Communities and leaders who recognize the challenges of a complex and uncertain environment will do best: they’ll have the fewest number of people either jumping out the window in panic, or otherwise listening to their uncle’s 5G shaman on 48-Chan telling them that snorting bath salts is actually the best COVID protection.

Again, it’s about tradeoffs.

Ok, noted on the bath salts, thanks Scott.


Scott Rosenstein is Special Advisor at Eurasia Group on global health.

More from GZERO Media

Elon Musk in an America Party hat.
Jess Frampton

Life comes at you fast. Only five weeks after vowing to step back from politics and a month after accusing President Donald Trump of being a pedophile, Elon Musk declared his intention to launch a new political party offering Americans an alternative to the Republicans and Democrats.

Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves (right) crying as Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer speaks during Prime Minister’s Questions in the House of Commons, London, United Kingdom, on July 2, 2025.
PA Images via Reuters Connect

UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer has struggled during his first year in office, an ominous sign for centrists in Western democracies.

- YouTube

“We wanted to be first with a flashy AI law,” says Kai Zenner, digital policy advisor in the European Parliament. Speaking with GZERO's Tony Maciulis at the 2025 AI for Good Summit in Geneva, Zenner explains the ambitions and the complications behind Europe’s landmark AI Act. Designed to create horizontal rules for all AI systems, the legislation aims to set global standards for safety, transparency, and oversight.

More than 60% of Walmart suppliers are small businesses.* Through a $350 billion investment in products made, grown, or assembled in the US, Walmart is helping these businesses expand, create jobs, and thrive. This effort is expected to support the creation of over 750,000 new American jobs by 2030, empowering companies like Athletic Brewing, Bon Appésweet, and Milo’s Tea to grow their teams, scale their production, and strengthen the communities they call home. Learn more about Walmart's commitment to US manufacturing. *See website for additional details.

Last month, Microsoft released its 2025 Responsible AI Transparency Report, demonstrating the company’s sustained commitment to earning trust at a pace that matches AI innovation. The report outlines new developments in how we build and deploy AI systems responsibly, how we support our customers, and how we learn, evolve, and grow. It highlights our strengthened incident response processes, enhanced risk assessments and mitigations, and proactive regulatory alignment. It also covers new tools and practices we offer our customers to support their AI risk governance efforts, as well as how we work with stakeholders around the world to work towards governance approaches that build trust. You can read the report here.