SCOTUS leak on abortion decision: impacts midterms and beyond

Roe v. Wade Decision Leaked: Not The Law Of the Land Yet | US Politics In :60 | GZERO Media

Jon Lieber, head of Eurasia Group's coverage of political and policy developments in Washington, discusses what the abortion ruling mean for US politics.

What does the abortion ruling mean for US politics?

I'm down here at the Supreme Court where word leaked out last night that the court has a draft opinion that likely has the majority of votes to overturn Roe v. Wade, which is the 50 year old precedent that prevents states from imposing draconian bans on abortion. Democratic states and Republican states have been preparing for this to happen. Republicans have been rushing as quick as they can to put in place new abortion bans, while Democrat states have been enshrining abortion protections in their law, in anticipation of this decision.

What's unusual is that the decision leaked out. It wasn't released through normal channels. So while everyone knows this is coming, it's not yet the law of the land. And there may still be changes to the draft opinion that could tweak it here or there, in order to attract probably the sixth vote of Chief Justice John Roberts.

Politically, the impacts of this are really unclear. It's a galvanizing issue on both sides. Republicans have a turnout advantage in the midterm elections. Democrats may be able to use this to their advantage, to get more pro-choice voters to show up. But on the other hand, that could cut the other way. Republicans could also galvanize their base by talking about the importance of enshrining this decision into law.

Legislatively, Democrats have almost no options. Their 50th senator, Joe Manchin from West Virginia says he's pro-life and you would require either changes to the filibuster rules or 60 votes overcome them, and that's simply not happening.

This is a major victory for the conservative movement who have worked since the time of Roe v. Wade to put enough judges on the court who had overturned the decision. And now you're going to see years and years of this being litigated at the state level, at the ballot box. And importantly, Democrats working to overturn the 6-3 conservative majority, and try to get a Democrat appointed majority back in the court, so they can undo this decision. This is likely to continue to be one of the defining issues in US politics for the foreseeable future.

More from GZERO Media

Throughout his Walmart career, Greg has earned nine promotions, moving from an hourly associate to now overseeing 10 Walmart stores. His story is one of many. More than 75% of Walmart management started as hourly associates, and the retailer offers competitive benefits to support associates on and off the clock. At Walmart, there is a path for everyone. Learn how Walmart is investing in opportunities for associates at all levels.

This summer, Microsoft released the 2025 Responsible AI Transparency Report, demonstrating Microsoft’s sustained commitment to earning trust at a pace that matches AI innovation. The report outlines new developments in how we build and deploy AI systems responsibly, how we support our customers, and how we learn, evolve, and grow. It highlights our strengthened incident response processes, enhanced risk assessments and mitigations, and proactive regulatory alignment. It also covers new tools and practices we offer our customers to support their AI risk governance efforts, as well as how we work with stakeholders around the world to work towards governance approaches that build trust. You can read the report here.

Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba adjusts his glasses during a press conference as he announces his resignation, in Tokyo, Japan, on September 7, 2025.
Toru Hanai/Pool via REUTERS/File Photo

GZERO spoke to Eurasia Group’s Japan Director David Boling about why Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba resigned after less than a year in charge, and about who will replace him.

A girl is inoculated against the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) during a vaccination event hosted by Miami-Dade County and Miami Heat, at FTX Arena in Miami, Florida, USA, on August 5, 2021.
REUTERS/Marco Bello/File Photo

Florida Surgeon General Joseph Ladapo’s plan to repeal childhood vaccine mandates in the state’s public schools has prompted further debate over shots, states’ rights, and medical freedoms.

The body of Israeli Levi Itzhak Pash, who was killed when Palestinian gunmen opened fire at a bus stop at the outskirts of Jerusalem, is transported on the day of his funeral procession in Jerusalem September 8, 2025.
REUTERS/Ronen Zvulun

A group of terrorists from the West Bank opened fire on civilians at a major junction in Jerusalem on Monday morning, killing at least six people and injuring another 21.