The US government is heading toward a shutdown. What does that mean?

The U.S. Capitol.
The U.S. Capitol.
Reuters

The US government looks set to shut down this Sunday after House Republicans indicated that they would not support a bipartisan Senate bill that would fund the federal government past this weekend’s deadline.

Absent a last-minute agreement, many federal agencies could soon shut down, while millions of federal workers could be placed on furlough without pay due to a lapse in funding from Congress, which controls the purse strings.

What led to the current stalemate and what does it mean?

You might recall that, back in June, House Republicans agreed at the eleventh hour to raise the federal debt limit to avoid the government defaulting on its loans for the first time in history. As part of that agreement, Republicans and the White House agreed to spending caps on funding bills for the next two years that aimed to avoid this sort of impasse until after the next presidential election.

But that is now up in the air as a number of “tear-it-all-down” Republicans are refusing to fund the government – an annual procedural measure – and are calling for deeper spending cuts. Crucially, they also oppose ongoing funding to Ukraine.

Meanwhile, House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, overseeing one of the slimmest congressional majorities in decades, is hesitant to pass a funding bill with the backing of House Dems that these vocal members of his own caucus oppose, fearing they would call a vote seeking his ouster. What’s more, to appease the right flank of his party, McCarthy gave his caucus the go-ahead to start an impeachment inquiry into President Biden (the hearing will kick off Friday), but that doesn't seem to have gotten the hardliners to back off.

Indeed, this whole dance makes for very bad politics for the GOP considering that 77% of US voters don’t want the government to close.

What happens if the government shuts down? While some government departments – like the military – will continue to function, hundreds of thousands of workers (out of 4 million government employees) will be told to stay home without pay. The last time the government shut down in 2018 for 35 days, it cost the US economy a whopping $11 billion.

Plus: We asked Jon Lieber, head of Eurasia Group's coverage of political and policy developments in Washington, DC, to share his view on how long the shutdown may last. Hear what he had to say here.

More from GZERO Media

Campus protests over Gaza: Now what? | GZERO World with Ian Bremmer

On GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, Eboo Patel, founder of Interfaith America, discusses the challenge of violent protests on college campuses and advocates cooperation over confrontation, emphasizing the importance of civil discourse and highlighting successful examples of debate without chaos or violence.

A man casts his vote during a presidential election in Vilnius, Lithuania May 12, 2024.
REUTERS/Ints Kalnins

On Sunday, Lithuania held both a presidential election and a referendum on dual citizenship, an issue that has divided the Baltic nation of 2.2 million people since its independence from the Soviet Union 34 years ago.

FILE PHOTO: Participants, including Russian President Vladimir Putin, Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu and Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, attend a military parade on Victory Day, which marks the 79th anniversary of the victory over Nazi Germany in World War Two, in Red Square in Moscow, Russia, May 9, 2024.
REUTERS/Maxim Shemetov/File Photo

Russian President Vladimir Putin has announced significant changes to his senior military and political leadership as he begins his fifth term, including the reassignment of powerful Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu.

A boy sits atop a hill overlooking a refugee camp near the Chad-Sudan border, November 9, 2023. Hundreds of Masalit families from Sudan's West Darfur state were relocated here months after fleeing to the Chadian border town of Adre, following an ethnically targeted massacre in the city of El Geneina.
REUTERS/El Tayeb Siddig

On Saturday, the Sudanese Army fended off an attack by the Rapid Support Forces on the city of el-Fasher in the western region of Darfur.

FILE PHOTO: Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi (2nd L) and his former Japanese counterpart Shinzo Abe (L) bow to national flags as they review an honor guard before their meeting at Abe's official residence in Tokyo, Japan November 11, 2016.
REUTERS/Toru Yamanaka/Pool

India is set to surpass Japan as the world's fourth-largest economy by 2025, earlier than previous forecasts. This marks Japan’s second year of decline in global GDP rankings, after falling from third to fourth place behind Germany in 2023.

A U.S. force aircraft arrives with contractors to build a base for a Kenyan-led international security force aimed at countering gang violence, in Port-au-Prince, Haiti May 11, 2024.
REUTERS/Pedro Anza

Gang violence continues to escalate in Haiti, prompting calls for the dismissal and arrest of the country's National Police Director Frantz Elbé.

Will the Gaza campus protests work? | Ian Bremmer explains | GZERO World

College campuses nationwide have become protest hubs, echoing past movements demanding change. The core demand: divestment from Israel. Whether it's cutting ties with Israeli donors or businesses, students are risking penalties to be heard. Have the student protests worked? Ian Bremmer explains on GZERO World.