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What We’re Watching: Russia-Ukraine peace deal, Rough weekend for Brazil, Mass school abductions in Nigeria

November 24, 2025
Riley Callanan
and
Zac Weisz
​Servicemen of the 148th Separate Artillery Zhytomyr Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine fire a Caesar self-propelled howitzer towards Russian troops at a position on the front line, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, near the frontline town of Pokrovsk in Donetsk region, Ukraine November 23, 2025.
Servicemen of the 148th Separate Artillery Zhytomyr Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine fire a Caesar self-propelled howitzer towards Russian troops at a position on the front line, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, near the frontline town of Pokrovsk in Donetsk region, Ukraine November 23, 2025.
REUTERS/Anatolii Stepanov

Is a Russia-Ukraine peace deal imminent?

After facing backlash that the US’s first 28-point peace deal was too friendly towards Russia, American and Ukrainian negotiators drafted a new 19-point plan on Monday. The talks nearly fell apart before they began, but both sides reported ultimately that the meeting felt “positive.” However, whether this gets Ukraine and Russia any closer to a ceasefire remains to be seen. The new draft apparently bears little resemblance to the original plan – meaning Moscow may not agree. It also does not address the most controversial issues like territorial questions and the future of NATO–Russia–US relations, leaving them for Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelensky to resolve before Washington’s Thursday deadline.

A rough weekend for Brazil’s Bolsonaro

On Friday, US President Donald Trump gave Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva a boost – and thereby hurt former President Jair Bolsonaro – by cutting tariffs on several Brazilian foodstuffs, including beef, coffee, and fruit (see more here). But things would get worse for Bolsonaro: Police arrested him on Saturday over fears that he would try to escape house arrest to avoid the 27-year sentence he’s serving for plotting a failed coup. The Supreme Court believed the right-wing leader was tampering with his ankle monitor, so granted the arrest. Trump had placed 50% tariffs on Brazil over its treatment of Bolsonaro, but his priority appears to be shifting.

Another spate of mass school abductions rock Nigeria

Several Nigerian states have shut their schools following a spate of mass abductions over the weekend, adding yet another dilemma to the mounting security crisis in Africa’s most-populous country. The most notable abduction took place on Friday in Niger State, where gunmen kidnapped 315 children and 12 teachers – 50 of the children have since escaped. President Bola Tinubu announced afterwards that he would recruit another 30,000 police officers. With the Islamist militant group iSWAP sowing violence in the north, violence burgeoning between farmers and herders in the central Benue state, and these latest abductions, Tinubu’s to-do list is getting long and difficult.

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20 years after Merkel, men still hold most top offices

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