The two main Taiwanese opposition parties are deadlocked over how to interpret the polls that will determine which of their preferred presidential candidates squares up against incumbent party candidate William Lai in January. If they don’t reach an agreement by Wednesday — it’s looking unlikely — Lai’s probable victory will likely raise tensions across the Taiwan Strait and pose problems for the US-China relationship.
Last week, the Kuomintang Party, backing Hou Yu-ih, and the Taiwan People’s Party, backing Ko Wen-je, announced an agreement by which one of the two men would bow out based on the results of public and internal polling. Doing so would prevent splitting the opposition vote and put Lai under serious pressure. However, by Sunday, each side was squabbling about which specific polls merited inclusion and how to measure the margin of error.
There’s still a chance they can smooth it out, but they’ll need to act fast, says Eurasia Group Taiwan expert Ava Shen. The candidates need to be registered by Friday to be on the ballot come January.
Should they fail, Lai’s chances of winning remain high, much to the chagrin of officials in Beijing who would prefer the more dovish cross-strait policies of either Hou or Ko. Lai’s recent announcement that Hsiao Bi-khim, Taiwan’s former representative to the US, will be his running mate has done nothing to alleviate Beijing’s concerns. Hsiao was deeply involved in organizing former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit last year, which infuriated China and caused a major rupture in US ties.
“[Hsiao’s] nomination has further convinced Beijing that this is not a government that Beijing could work with if they come to power,” said Shen. “And, in turn, Beijing would perceive more utility in cranking up the pressure on Taiwan through military means and through economic coercion measures.”
Last week, at the Munich Security Conference, a group of global technology providers, including Microsoft, announced the Trusted Tech Alliance — committed to shared, verifiable principles for trusted, transparent, and resilient technology across borders. At a moment of economic volatility and zero-sum technological competition, countries and customers are demanding greater accountability from technology providers. The Alliance addresses this by bringing together companies from across Africa, Asia, Europe, and North America around shared commitments: transparent governance, secure development practices, supply chain oversight, open digital ecosystem, and respect for the rule of law — ensuring the benefits of emerging technologies strengthen public trust while driving job creation and economic growth. Explore the Trusted Tech Alliance here.
China was largely absent from the core conversations at the 2026 Munich Security Conference. That, says Ian Bremmer, is telling.
At the 62nd Munich Security Conference, Parag Khanna, founder and CEO of AlphaGeo, says globalization isn't dead, it's evolving. Speaking with GZERO’s Tony Maciulis, he explains that countries are forming flexible alliances that expand and shrink based on their interests. “You’d rather be in the tent...if it suits your interest than not in it,” Khanna notes, highlighting how the US, Europe, and Asia are adapting to shifting global priorities.
Sovereignty has become one of the most powerful, and least defined, words in tech policy. At the 2026 Munich Security Conference, SAP global head of government affairs, Wolfgang Dierker, explains why governments and enterprise customers are demanding more control over their data, cloud infrastructure, and AI systems amid rising geopolitical uncertainty.