Could China invade Taiwan?

On GZERO World, Ian Bremmer asks the question keeping diplomats, military experts, and policymakers all over the world up at night: Could China and Taiwan be heading toward war? Tensions are high. The People’s Liberation Army has been staging louder and more frequent military drills around Taiwan and Chinese President Xi Jinping has ordered the PLA to be ready to seize the island by 2027. Diplomatic red lines are being tested, and the risk of miscalculation is growing. Bonny Lin, director of the China Power Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, joins Ian to break down the current conflict and whether war between China and Taiwan in the near-term is a realistic possibility.

Securing Taiwan is crucial for global stability—the island manufactures over 90% of the world’s most advanced semiconductors, and nearly half of all container ships pass through the Taiwan Strait. A Chinese invasion of Taiwan would upend the global economy, reshape alliances, and likely trigger the most deadly conflict in the Asia-Pacific since World War II. What are China’s goals and how far is Beijing willing to go to achieve them? And, crucially, if China attacked Taiwan, would the Trump administration step in to help defend it?

"The rate and pace of Chinese activities around Taiwan has been increasing quite a bit," Lin warns, "So lots and lots of developments that are showcasing that China's very dead serious about using military force if they need to."