Like everyone else, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau will be watching closely as votes are counted across the US — although it’s hard to know which candidate he’ll be pulling for.
On paper, Trudeau will of course be hoping that fellow progressive Kamala Harris gets elected, but he may also be calculating that a victory by Donald Trump could give him a boost with Canadian voters. Polling shows that some Canadians might trust him to manage the all-important relationship with the Americans, although even on that issue he trails Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre.
After nine tumultuous years in office, Trudeau is in a difficult position. He has been 20 points behind the Conservatives in the polls for two years.
In a closed-door caucus meeting last week, backbench Liberal MPs urged him to consider stepping down. The next day, Trudeau said he would not do that: "As a party, we've always had robust discussions about the best way forward. We'll continue to have them with me as leader."
Backbenchers unhappy with the swiftness of that decision suggested the caucus should hold a secret ballot vote on his leadership. But this week’s caucus meeting – they meet every Wednesday – did not feature such a vote, which suggests the rebellion may have fizzled.
Meanwhile, the opposition Bloc Quebecois is promising to vote against the government at the next opportunity. This puts the onus on the NDP to either vote with the unpopular Liberals or bring down the government and go to an election, which Poilievre is poised to win. The NDP, which is expected to lose seats in the next election, looks like it will not rush to do that.
If Trudeau hangs on to both his leadership and his government until after the US election, which seems likely, he may be in a better position to judge his political prospects.