“A good place to stash books. Or to stash 75,800 euros." So reads a bold IKEA bookcase ad with a wink to the scandal of that amount of cash being discovered in books in Portugal’s Prime Minister António Costa's office. That tells you everything you need to know about the country’s election this Sunday.
Portugal’s vote is all about corruption, and we think IKEA’s marketing team deserves a raise.
The discovery brought down the center-left government and fueled the hard-right populist party, Chega, which is expected to double its seats thanks to voters disenchanted with mainstream political parties. One of Western Europe’s poorest countries, Portugal has shifted right due to economic malaise over stagnated wages and inflation.
The center-right Democratic Alliance is expected to win the most votes but fall short of a parliamentary majority, positioning Chega as the kingmaker of the right-wing coalition.
The historical irony: The election takes place on the 50th anniversary of the Carnation Revolution that swept away the right-wing dictatorship that had kept the country in shackles for four decades.
Chega’s rising popularity is a sign that Portugal may not be immune to rising populism across Europe, which is expected to result in major gains for the far-right in European elections in June.
Europe enters 2026 under mounting strain as it confronts external threats, internal political pressures, and a weakening relationship with the United States. In GZERO’s 2026 Top Risks livestream, Mujtaba Rahman, Managing Director for Europe at Eurasia Group, describes a continent that is “exhausted, fatigued, weak, and vulnerable.”
Plot twist #PUPPETREGIME
4: Italy has reformed its voting rules four times since 1993, and Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni is now considering a fifth change.