GZERO World Clips
Putin's nuclear calculus and the Ukraine Paradox
How the Ukraine Paradox Explains Putin's Nuclear Calculus | GZERO World
November 09, 2022
Immediately after Russia invaded Ukraine, the odds of Moscow using nuclear weapons were low because it seemed likely they'd overrun the country with conventional weaponry. New York Times national security correspondent David Sanger credits NATO.
"Without the NATO support, I don't think the Ukrainians would have held on," Sanger tells Ian Bremmer on GZERO World.
But now, he warns, we're dealing with the 'Ukraine Paradox': the more successful Ukraine gets, the more likely Vladimir Putin will consider using non-conventional weapons. Will that include nukes? Perhaps.
For Sanger, the risk of Putin going nuclear has gone significantly up since the war began in late February.
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TODAY at 12 pm ET: Watch our Global Stage live premiere from the Munich Security Conference
Feb 13, 2026
Tune in today at 12pm ET/6pm CET for the live premiere of our Global Stage from the 2026 Munich Security Conference, where our panel of experts takes aim at the latest global security challenges. NY Times National Security Correspondent David Sanger moderates the discussion with Benedetta Berti, Secretary General, NATO Parliamentary Assembly; Ian Bremmer, President & Co-founder, Eurasia Group & GZERO Media; Dr. Wolfgang Dierker, Global Head of Government Affairs, SAP; and Brad Smith, Vice Chair & President, Microsoft.
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