State of the Elephant downstairs

US President Joe Biden takes the podium tonight for his annual State of the Union address to Congress. Ahead of what will almost certainly be an epic electoral rematch against Donald Trump this fall, this SOTU is, basically, a campaign speech.

Here are a few things to watch for.

First, does the 81-year-old Biden look all there? Any slips or gaffes will be internet catnip for those who think Biden is too old to be president – a view now shared by 73% of voters. (About 40% say the same about Donald Trump).

Second, what does Biden say about immigration, trade, or climate policy – issues that could directly affect Canada? Ottawa and Washington have squabbled in recent years over the Made in America provisions of Biden’s signature Inflation Reduction Act.

But most importantly, does Biden make a compelling case for another term? He’s polling poorly despite good data on inflation, crime, wages, and employment. For Biden to pull ahead of Trump, he’ll need to pierce the doom bubble and convince just enough people that he’s a safer option for America’s institutions, economy, and alliances than the Other Guy.

Tonight will be his big shot to do that – can he land it?