Three amigos, or two?

Ontario Premier Doug Ford said Tuesday that Canada and the United States should sign a trade deal without Mexico that would put an end to the Three Amigos relationship that has governed trade between the three countries since 1994, when the North American Free Trade Agreement was signed.

Ford called on Mexico to match Canadian and American tariffs on Chinese imports to stop it being a “backdoor for Chinese cars, auto parts, and other products."

Ford’s province depends on the CA$11.6 billion auto industry, with integrated supply chains across the border. Any threat to that could cause an economic meltdown.

During the negotiations of the new NAFTA — the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement — in 2019, some Conservative critics of Justin Trudeau’s government faulted the Canadians for making common cause with Mexico in resisting US demands. They are getting an early start this time ahead of the deal’s review in 2026.

“If Mexico won’t fight transshipment by, at the very least, matching Canadian and American tariffs on Chinese imports, they shouldn’t have a seat at the table or enjoy access to the largest economy in the world,” Ford said.

Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland, who played the pivotal role in negotiating USMCA withUS Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, has repeatedly emphasized that Canada and the United States are in lockstep on tariffs on China.

Graeme Thompson, a senior analyst with Eurasia Group's global macro-geopolitics practice, says it is hard to know if they will remain in lockstep if Donald Trump’s tariffs on China get too high.

“Given Canada’s dependence on the US market, I think Ottawa will be tempted to do things that only a few years ago would have seemed impossible – including imposing significant new tariffs on China and abandoning Mexico if necessary to preserve its trade and security relationships with Washington.”

Lighthizer, who is expected to return to his job under Trump 2.0, is laying the groundwork for a new tariff policy that would include a 20% tariff on all goods coming into the US.

If there is no exemption for Canada, the policy would also lead to a sudden and dramatic slowdown in the Canadian economy.

Expect the Canadians to remind the Americans that Canada exported $124 billion of oil to the United States last year. Any new tariffs on that trade would increase prices at the pump for Americans, which Trump’s party would pay for in the 2026 midterms.