What We're Watching
Two major Trump trial decisions this week
Former U.S. President and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump..
REUTERS/Mike Segar
A federal appeals court ruled Tuesday that Donald Trump is not immune to criminal charges for things he did while president. Specifically: the DC federal indictment accusing him of trying to overturn the 2020 election.
Trump will appeal to the Supreme Court to delay the DC trial, stalling it until SCOTUS decides whether to take up the case before its session ends in July.
SCOTUS is hearing its first Trump case this week. On Thursday, justices will decide whether the insurrection clause of the 14th Amendment allows states to bar Trump from primary ballots, just over a month after Colorado and Maine disqualified him.
The insurrection clause says officeholders that “engaged in an insurrection” can’t be reelected. It was created to stop Confederates from regaining power after the Civil War and hasn’t been implemented since, so justices can decide how to enforce it.
The core question: Which is worse for democracy, taking a candidate off the ballot or an alleged insurrectionist returning to power?
What to watch: Whether SCOTUS rules that Jan. 6, 2021, was an insurrection, even if they also decide to keep Trump on the ballot. If they do, that would empower prosecutors in the DC federal indictment and an upcoming case on Jan. 6 participants.
In his latest Quick Take, Ian Bremmer discusses the on-again off-again ceasefire between the United States and Iran and why it has failed to hold, arguing that both sides remain locked in a fundamental disagreement over who has the leverage.
Can a war-torn Lebanon disarm Hezbollah, end Israel’s occupation of its southern territory, and reclaim control of its future? Beirut-based journalist Kim Ghattas joins Ian Bremmer on GZERO World.
As Hezbollah’s power weakens and Israel occupies parts of southern Lebanon, could the country finally reclaim its sovereignty? Or is it headed toward another war? Journalist Kim Ghattas joins Ian Bremmer on the GZERO World Podcast.
Ian Bremmer breaks down how Iran spent four decades building Hezbollah into a powerful proxy against Israel, and why the group’s uncertain future could reshape the Middle East.