What We’re Watching: Hamas ponders Gaza proposal, US government shutdown is nigh, “Gen Z” revolt in Madagascar, US-Africa trade deal to expire

All eyes on Hamas after Trump and Netanyahu announce Gaza deal

US President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu yesterday announced a proposal to end the war in Gaza. Under the plan, Israel would withdraw from Gaza in phases, and a group of Arab and Muslim-majority nations would oversee a Palestinian administration of the strip. Hamas would return all the remaining hostages and its fighters would get amnesty if they disarm. There was only a vague reference to Palestinian statehood. Arab and European leaders lauded the proposal but Netanyahu’s far right coalition partners have slammed it. The key question: will Hamas accept? The militant group said it would look at the deal in “good faith,” but has also suggested the deal is too favorable for Israel. The clock is ticking: Trump gave Hamas until Thursday to accept, warning that otherwise he would give Netanyahu “full backing” to continue his attempt, so far unsuccessful, to eliminate Hamas.

This US government shutdown could be different

With yet another federal government shutdown looming at midnight tonight, talks between congressional Democrats, Republicans, and the White House have stalled. Republicans want a short-term funding bill before negotiating one for the full fiscal year, while Democrats want to reinstate certain health care subsidies. Since any funding bill requires 60 votes in the Senate, the Democrats still have leverage even though the GOP has 53 seats. Under a shutdown, “non-essential” federal workers (think park rangers and social security administrators) are suspended until a deal is reached. But this time could be different: Trump is threatening to use any shutdown as an excuse to permanently fire thousands of federal employees. Who will blink first?

Madagascar’s Gen Z protests force government shake-up

Madagascar’s President Andry Rajoelina says he’ll dissolve his government after days of “Gen Z” protests over chronic water and power outages. The demonstrations, led mostly by young people under the slogan “We want to live, not survive,” have spread to eight cities in the African island nation, and turned deadly. The UN says at least 22 people have been killed and 100 injured in clashes with security forces, though Madagascar’s government disputes those numbers. The protests mark the biggest test of Rajoelina’s rule since winning reelection in 2023. He apologized for government failures and promised a new cabinet within days.

Major US-Africa deal expires today

The African Growth and Opportunity Act, a 25-year old trade deal that has given African exporters preferential access to the US market, is set to expire today, leaving billions of dollars of trade and hundreds of thousands of jobs across the continent in limbo. Read Zac Weisz’s recent explainer on the economic (and geopolitical!) implications here.