Who needs to prove the most at the Democratic debate this week?

Who needs to prove the most at the Democratic debate this week?

Is the trade war with China finally over?

No, it's not. We have a truce now, a temporary truce, a pause in tariff hikes but none of the major issues have been dealt with. Trump could change his mind at any time. I think he realizes though that if he presses on with a trade war, he is looking at a recession going into his re-election. So, we may have a truce that lasts for a while.

Is the U.S. going to sanction Turkey for its actions in Syria?

Yes. The question is: Does Congress pass a very big, bipartisan set of sanctions against Turkey tougher than what the Trump administration has proposed, out of outrage over his decision to remove troops from northern Syria and essentially abandon the Kurds? So, I think we could see congressional action.

Who needs to prove the most at the Democratic debate this week?

Definitely Bernie Sanders. He needs to show both, that he's healthy and recovered from his heart attack and that he can challenge Warren for the left in the Democratic primary. So big pressure on Bernie Sanders.

More from GZERO Media

GZERO

Listen: On this episode of the GZERO World Podcast, while the Gaza war rages on with no end in sight, Ian Bremmer and three-time Pulitzer Prize-winning New York Times columnist Thomas L. Friedman discuss how it could end, who is standing in the way, and what comes next. It may seem premature to talk about a resolution to this conflict, but Friedman argues that it is more important now than ever to map out a viable endgame. "Either we're going to go into 2024 with some really new ideas,” Friedman tells Ian, “or we're going back to 1947 with some really new weapons."

2024 04 04 E0819 Quick Take CLEAN FINAL

Ian Bremmer's Quick Take: On the back of the Israeli Defense Forces strike killing seven members of aid workers for the World Central Kitchen, their founder, Chef Jose Andres, is obviously very angry. The Israelis immediately apologized and took responsibility for the act. He says that this was intentionally targeting his workers. I have a hard time believing that the IDF would have wanted to kill his workers intentionally. Anyone that's saying the Israelis are only to blame for this—as well as the enormous civilian death toll in this war–I strongly disagree.

President Joe Biden pauses during a meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to discuss the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas, in Tel Aviv, Israel, Wednesday, Oct. 18, 2023.
Miriam Alster/REUTERS

Biden told Netanyahu that the humanitarian situation in Gaza and strikes on aid workers were “unacceptable,” the White House readout of the call said.

Commander Shingo Nashinoki, 50, and soldiers of the Japanese Ground Self-Defense Force's Amphibious Rapid Deployment Brigade (ARDB), Japan's first marine unit since World War Two, take part in a military drill as U.S. Marines observe, on the uninhabited Irisuna island close to Okinawa, Japan, November 15, 2023.
REUTERS

Given the ugly World War II history between the two countries, that would be a startling development.

Senegalese opposition leader Ousmane Sonko listens to the presidential candidate he is backing in the March 24 election, Bassirou Diomaye Faye, as they hold a joint press conference a day after they were released from prison, in Dakar, Senegal March 15, 2024.
REUTERS/Zohra Bensemra

Newly inaugurated Senegalese President Bassirou Diomaye Faye, in his first act in office, appointed his mentor Ousmane Sonko as prime minister on Wednesday.