Zelensky’s fate and Ukraine’s future

Zelensky’s fate and Ukraine’s future

As the war in Ukraine grinds on, the United Nations says 2.8 million civilians have now fled the country. Millions more remain trapped in harm’s way. Cities like Kharkiv, Mariupol, and many others are running out of food, fuel, and electricity. The port city of Odessa is building defenses. But it’s in Kyiv, the capital, where the war is coming to a head. Russian forces are getting ready for a major assault, Ukrainian soldiers are preparing for a fight, and civilians are bracing for impact. On Monday, the city suffered the biggest Russian artillery barrage so far.

The best-known person in Kyiv at the moment is Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, and his personal fate has become an important variable in what happens after the fighting ends. Here are four scenarios:

  1. Zelensky escapes a Russian capture of Kyiv and, with recognition from most governments as Ukraine’s legitimate president, leads a government in exile – either from unoccupied Western Ukraine or from abroad.
  2. Zelensky is killed in the fighting and becomes a martyr of Ukrainian independence.
  3. Russian forces take Zelensky prisoner, and his freedom becomes a diplomatic bargaining chip.
  4. Russian forces fail to take Kyiv, and Zelensky’s status as national hero and international icon of resistance is reinforced. Russia’s President Putin is forced to bargain with him.

Each of these scenarios carries long-term risks. And each is being discussed behind closed doors in Kyiv, Moscow, Washington, and across Europe.

Monday’s most important conversation outside Russia and Ukraine took place in Rome, where US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan sat down with senior Chinese diplomat Yang Jiechi. The backdrop for this conversation includes internal debates in Washington and Beijing. In the US, the arguments are about whether courtship or pressure is more likely to persuade China to keep its distance from Russia. In China, the discussion is about how openly China can back Russia without permanently antagonizing its lead trade partners, the EU and US.

More from GZERO Media

A woman lights a cigarette placed in a placard depicting Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, during a demonstration, after the Hungarian parliament passed a law that bans LGBTQ+ communities from holding the annual Pride march and allows a broader constraint on freedom of assembly, in Budapest, Hungary, on March 25, 2025.
REUTERS/Marton Monus

Hungary’s capital will proceed with Saturday’s Pride parade celebrating the LGBTQ+ community, despite the rightwing national government’s recent ban on the event.

American President Donald Trump's X Page is seen displayed on a smartphone with a Tiktok logo in the background
Avishek Das / SOPA Images via Reuters Connect

In August 1991, a handful of high-ranking Soviet officials launched a military coup to halt what they believed (correctly) was the steady disintegration of the Soviet Union. Their first step was to seize control of the flow of information across the USSR by ordering state television to begin broadcasting a Bolshoi Theatre production ofSwan Lake on a continuous loop until further notice.

Small businesses are more than just corner shops and local services. They’re a driving force of economic growth, making up 90% of all businesses globally. As the global middle class rapidly expands, new opportunities are emerging for entrepreneurs to launch and grow small businesses.

U.S. President Donald Trump, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte at a NATO leaders summit in The Hague, Netherlands June 25, 2025.
REUTERS

The two-day NATO summit at the Hague wrapped on Wednesday. The top line? At an event noticeably scripted to heap flattery on Donald Trump, alliance members agreed to the US president’s demand they boost military spending to 5% of GDP over the next decade.