Has US opened the door to Taiwanese independence?

The US State Department last week scrubbed a statement from its website that said it doesn’t support Taiwan’s independence, sparking fury in China, which called on the United States to reinstate the message. Taiwan Foreign Minister Lin Chia-lungappreciated the removal.

This is the second time in three years that the US agency has removed this message from its website. The Biden administration cut it in May 2022 but restored it a few weeks later under pressure from China.

A spokesperson for the US State Department said that the United States maintains its official “one China” policy, which specifies that the US only has formal ties with China and doesn’t take any position on Taiwanese independence.

The reality is a little more ambiguous, almost by definition. The United States maintains unofficial diplomatic relations with Taiwan, and the pair have built a close trading relationship. In 2022, then-US President Joe Biden went a step further, pledging to defend the island nation if the Chinese invaded.

US-China relations have been simmering in recent years, across both Democratic and Republican administrations. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has repeatedly warned of threats from China, calling the Asian juggernaut “the most potent and dangerous near-peer adversary this nation has ever faced."

The Trump administration’s relationship with Taiwan isn’t perfect, either. US President Donald Trumpcomplained last week that the nation, which produces more than 90% of the world’s semiconductors, has taken the industry away from the United States. In an apparent effort to appease the new US leader, Taiwan said it would increase its investment in the United States, while also spending more on defense.

What the website change means for the United States’ position on Taiwan’s sovereignty remains unclear. Rubio has said that the US won’t support Taiwanese independence, though this removal appears to put the United States a step closer in that direction.

“It’s not unthinkable,” says Eurasia Group’s Jeremy Chan, “that Trump’s team may be withholding a statement of not supporting ‘Taiwanese independence’ to build leverage for future negotiations with Beijing.”