Iran-Israel battle escalates: What will Trump do?

The war between Israel and Iran continued to escalate over the weekend, with Israel hitting Iran’s energy facilities, while Tehran launched hundreds of missiles and drones at Tel Aviv and other metropolitan areas. Dozens of Israelis have been killed, while Iran has suffered over 200 fatalities.

What’s Israel’s goal here? Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu wants to destroy Iran’s nuclear programme – that much we know. One outside analyst suggested he wants something bigger than this, namely regime change. US President Donald Trump reportedly vetoed an Israeli plan to assassinate Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, highlighting Netanyahu’s aggressive posture.

What about Iran? Survival of the regime and the nuclear program are the goals. Tehran has limited capacity for counterstrikes – it only had 2,000 missiles capable of reaching Israel at the start of the war, per Israeli intelligence, and has already used hundreds of them. It doesn’t want to prompt the US to get involved – which may explain why it hasn’t closed the Strait of Hormuz, a key oil export chokepoint.

So what will the United States do? That’s the big question. Trump urged the two adversaries to make a deal in a social media post on Sunday. The US president’s online calls for peace haven’t always been heeded, though – looking at you, Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Assuming there’s no deal, the question becomes whether the US will help Israel to “finish the job” of destroying Iran’s nuclear facilities, which are buried deep underground. Most experts believe that only the US has the kind of bunker busting bombs that could penetrate deep enough to hit them.

Trump’s dilemma: He campaigned for president on a promise to end US involvement in foreign wars. Some hard-right elements of his own MAGA coalition oppose getting more involved. At the same time, a recent poll showed a slim majority of Americans, and a sizable majority of Republicans, support helping Israel to destroy Iran’s nuclear program. Trump must tread carefully: getting involved could risk a wider war, but staying on the sidelines could also spur Iran and Israel to continue escalation. Your call, Mr. President...