South Sudan on brink of civil war as senior officials’ arrests inflame ethnic tensions

South Sudan, the world’s youngest country, could soon devolve into renewed civil war. On Wednesday, soldiers surrounded Vice President Riek Machar’s home in Juba, the capital, following the arrest of key allies, including Petroleum Minister Puot Kang Chol and his bodyguards and family.

Both Machar and Chol are members of the Nuer ethnic group, the country’s second-largest demographic after the majority Dinka. The crackdown by President Salva Kiir – an ethnic Dinka whose long-standing rivalry with Machar exploded into conflict in the past – came one day after the White Army, a loosely organized militia made up of members of the vice president’s Nuer minority, seized control over Nasir, a major town in South Sudan’s northeasternmost Upper Nile State, from the country’s military. Machar supported the White Army during the war.

As part of the 2018 peace deal that ended the civil war, Kiir and Machar agreed to unify disparate ethnic militias into one national army in 2022. But negotiations stalled last year.

In early February, Kiir’s government unilaterally sacked Machar’s allies, including the health minister, without consulting the vice president as required under the peace pact. Days later, national troops loyal to Kiir attacked civilians in a crowded market in Nasir during a meeting with the local United Nations mission.

In response to what was just the latest example of UN-documented abuses of civilians by the military, armed youths killed at least four soldiers. A week later, the military launched airstrikes on positions held by militants loyal to Machar.

Dashed hopes? The latest escalation comes just two months after South Sudan’s oil production began again, bringing much-needed revenues to one of the world’s poorest countries.