UN Secretary-General António Guterres on AI, Security Council reform, and global conflicts

Transcript

Listen: UN Secretary-General António Guterres joins Ian Bremmer on the GZERO World Podcast for an exclusive conversation from the sidelines of the General Assembly at a critical moment for the world and the UN itself. Amid so many ongoing crises, is meaningful reform at the world’s largest multilateral institution possible? Between ongoing wars in Ukraine and Gaza, the climate crisis threatening the lives of millions, and a broken Security Council, there’s a lot to discuss. But there are some reasons for optimism. This year could bring the UN into a new era by addressing one of the biggest challenges facing our society: artificial intelligence and the growing digital divide. This year, the UN will hold its first-ever Summit of the Future, where members will vote on a Global Digital Compact, agreeing to shared principles for AI and digital governance. In a wide-ranging conversation, Guterres lays out his vision for the future of the UN and why he believes now is the time to reform our institutions to meet today’s political and economic realities.

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Transcript: UN Secretary-General António Guterres on AI, Security Council reform, and global conflicts

Ian Bremmer:

Hello, and welcome to the GZERO World Podcast. This is where you'll find extended versions of my interviews on public television. I'm Ian Bremmer, and this week diplomats and heads of state from 193 countries are gathering together in New York City for the annual United Nations General Assembly, and it's a critical moment for the world and for the United Nations itself.

Secretary-General Antonio Guterres warned at last year's General Assembly, it's reform or rupture. This year could bring the United Nations into a new era by addressing one of the biggest challenges facing our society today: artificial intelligence and the growing digital divide. This week, United Nations will hold the first-ever Summit of the Future where members will vote on a Global Digital Compact agreeing to shared principles for AI, for digital governance. Full disclosure, I'm a part of the United Nations AI Advisory Body, which has spent the last year studying the issue to make recommendations on what those principles should be. It's because of that work that I come to this year's United Nations General Assembly with renewed optimism that we can address the opportunities and the risks of AI without hindering innovation and that the UN is the only international body capable of doing that both safely and equitably.

Today, I'm bringing you my exclusive conversation with UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres from the sidelines of the General Assembly, his term set to expire in 2027. What are his priorities for his remaining time in office? With two major wars and so many ongoing crises around the world can the UN come together to meet today's economic and political realities? We have a lot to discuss. Here's our conversation.

Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, nice to have you back on GZERO.

Antonio Guterres:

It's an enormous pleasure as always.

Ian Bremmer:

It's a busy week for you. I want to start with one of the biggest questions, something I'm troubled by, which is, when I grew up as a kid, I thought that democracy and a regulated free market were the ideas for how we should run the world. People today don't see those ideas as motivating them. They don't see those leaders as motivating them. When you think of your role as Secretary-General, and you represent people all over the world, what are the ideas that we can look to the future?

Antonio Guterres:

I think the most important idea when you are, as I am, in United Nations, is to make people understand that we need to live in a rules-based world. We have the values of the Charter, but we need to have international law, and people need to respect international law and international humanitarian law. There must be accountability because the main problem of today's world is total impunity. There are no rules or nobody respects the rules that exist. And as the geopolitical divides are so deep, there is no respect. Nobody believes that one of the big powers will intervene if a situation is created by a troublemaker anywhere. And so troublemakers have multiplied, spoilers have multiplied. We have seen conflicts more and more, and as I said, a sense of impunity. Every country or every organization or militia or whatever thinks that they can do whatever they want because they know that they will not pay a price for that.

Ian Bremmer:

The United Nations was founded on the exact opposite of that principle.

Antonio Guterres:

And that is why we believe it's time to look seriously into how our global governance is not working and what kind of reforms are necessary in international institutions, be it the Security Council, be it the Bretton Woods system. Be it whatever is relevant in today's multilateral institution to at least try to put some order in today's world and to avoid this chaotic development in which we see conflicts multiplying, inequalities growing, climate change without an adequate answer, and artificial intelligence without an effective way for the international community to deal with it.

Ian Bremmer:

Now, when your institutions are eroding, when they're breaking, when they're not seen as legitimate, you have three choices. You can either reform the institutions, you can create new institutions, or you can go to war. It seems like today all three of those things are happening simultaneously.

Antonio Guterres:

It's absolutely true.

Ian Bremmer:

Do you want to talk about that?

Antonio Guterres:

You're going to war. Look at the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Look at what's happening in the Middle East. On the other hand, we are doing our best to reform institutions, and that is the reason why we'll have next week the Summit of the Future here looking into the Security Council, looking into the Bretton Woods system, looking into governance of AI, looking into all those aspects. At the same time, we see institutions that are less and less able to deal with the problems of today because they became outdated and because they are ineffective and sometimes deeply unfair.

I mean, most of the institutions that today run the world were created after the Second World War. After the Second World War the majority of the countries of today's United Nations did not exist. They were still under colonial domination. The global economy was totally different. I mean, the institutions of Bretton Woods were essentially created for the reconstruction of Europe. Now we have the world, now we have the developing countries that are independent countries. Now we have a complexity in international relations with emerging economies that are putting into question the traditional hegemonic situation of the rich countries of a few decades ago. So everything is changing, and as everything is changing, we need to change the institutions to be able to deal with the problems of today instead of trying to deal with the problems of today with the rules of 1945.

Ian Bremmer:

Now, it does appear that Security Council reform is getting a little more traction than it has historically. I see your calls to have African states as permanent members of the Security Council. The United States government is saying in principle they're interested in this. There are countries that support rule of law that matter that have not been on because they lost World War II, like Germany and Japan. There's India that wasn't around and now has 1.5 billion people, going to be the third-largest economy soon. Do you think that there is enough momentum to make a durable reform of the Security Council happen?

Antonio Guterres:

Probably not immediately, but there is a huge difference in relation to the recent past. When I started my function to talk about the reform of Security Council was untenable. It was unacceptable. The Secretary-General was not supposed even to mention that.

Ian Bremmer:

And it was also a pipe dream.

Antonio Guterres:

And there was a working group in the General Assembly, but they couldn't even have written texts. Now everybody recognizes that the reform of the Security Council is necessary. I mean, the African situation, it is an historic injustice. Africa has been a double victim of colonialism, first of all because of colonialism itself and second because of colonialism they were not present when institutions were built. Obviously we see today emerging economies that are very relevant in the international arena, and it makes absolute sense to take seriously into account their candidacies. It's not for me to decide who's going to the Security Council or not. It will not be easy because there are oppositions of one country against the other so this is not yet done. But for the first time, the five permanent members recognize that they are ready to accept at least an African permanent member in the Security Council or two like the United States just announced yesterday.

Ian Bremmer:

To be clear, we're not talking about extending the veto to African countries.

Antonio Guterres:

No. That I don't think is realistic. The five vetoes will be maintained even if the five vetoes are one of the reasons why the Security Council doesn't workproperly, but that will be very difficult. Of course, the African countries want to have the veto, and all the other candidates want to have the veto. Probably it will not happen. But this reform of the Security Council is today a central issue in the discussions in the United Nations, and it will be a central issue I'm sure in the Summit of the Future. I hope that there will be a clear indication that it must be done.

Ian Bremmer:

Because if you're leaving out a majority of the world's people from global governance, everyone understands that you have to do something.

Antonio Guterres:

Look at today's permanent members. Three of the five permanent members are European countries. I mean, Europe is not so important in today's world.

Ian Bremmer:

I mean, come on, you're Portuguese. You're the former prime minister. You're not supposed to say that.

Antonio Guterres:

Well, this is the truth. So it is obvious that we need to readjust to the reality of today's world.

Ian Bremmer:

Now, another place where the UN is playing a big role and the rest of the world has not yet been represented is artificial intelligence. I've been very grateful to be a part of your high-level panel on AI. We've seen seven major efforts at international governance of AI, the G7, the advanced industrial democracies, are members of all of them, and the majority of the Global South are members of none of them.

Antonio Guterres:

Yes.

Ian Bremmer:

Talk about that.

Antonio Guterres:

There are a few initiatives, seven or eight initiatives. In these initiatives there are seven countries that are in all of them and 118 countries that are in none of them.

Ian Bremmer:

Not one.

Antonio Guterres:

So I think that we are facing two dangers. One is in a non-regulatory framework in which nobody is ready to assume responsibilities in this regard.

Ian Bremmer:

Which means the companies govern themselves.

Antonio Guterres:

We will witness a huge concentration of power in a very small number of private companies because the costs are growing so fast that the idea that there will be a proliferation of, enormous amount of startups, that will be the new pattern. I mean, the costs are so high, it's becoming very, very difficult. That concentration of power is there, and that is a threat to our institutions.

The other risk is that a small group of developed countries consider that artificial intelligence is their business and that the majority of the countries of the world have nothing to do with it. That would be totally unacceptable because artificial intelligence is the opportunity of our generation, but it is an existential threat. To be an opportunity of our generation, it must be available to all countries of the world and to all areas of the world population, and it is possible to do it. The investments are not so high. One of the central aspects of the High-Level Advisory Body that has produced its report is to say that we must have a network for capacity building in artificial intelligence in developing countries, and we must have a fund to support those activities.

Ian Bremmer:

For the data, for the training of the people-

Antonio Guterres:

For everything because it's not-

Ian Bremmer:

Communication.

Antonio Guterres:

Artificial intelligence will increase the level of inequality in a world in which inequality is today a dramatic factor of instability and a source of conflict.

Ian Bremmer:

You said it's both an opportunity and an existential threat, but I know that you and I agree that it is first and foremost an opportunity.

Antonio Guterres:

Yes.

Ian Bremmer:

And I have seen that unlike climate change where you have powerful actors that are trying to stop people from even talking about the existence of this, the opportunity of artificial intelligence is not something that companies or governments want to stop. They just don't care enough about it. They're just not paying attention to it. So is this an essential role, a unique role that the United Nations needs to play?

Antonio Guterres:

The United Nations has one important characteristic: its legitimacy. It's a platform where everybody can be together. One of the crucial aspects when we look at the future of artificial intelligence, knowing that regulation, detailed regulation, will be done on a country by country basis. That there will be competition among countries, among companies. But we need to have a global platform where everybody can come together, governments, companies, academia, civil society, and at least follow scientifically what's happening. The reason of the proposal of a creation of an international scientific council-

Ian Bremmer:

Panel on AI.

Antonio Guterres:

On AI.

Ian Bremmer:

Like we've had on climate change.

Antonio Guterres:

Like we have on climate change.

Ian Bremmer:

Multi-stakeholder.

Antonio Guterres:

To have open information accessible to everybody about how AI is evolving. Second, we must have a kind of a forum where all key actors can meet regularly, and I mean, look into best practices, look into the reports of the scientific panel, and look into what kind of gaps need to be addressed, what kind of guardrails might make sense in a way where everybody can participate. Then the central question of standard setting, I mean, we need to have cooperation of all the agencies that are setting standards, and we need to have one system of standard setting. Because if not, that will undermine the capacity of AI being an opportunity for all. And then we need capacity building for developing countries and the fund.

Ian Bremmer:

And the fund that you mentioned.

Antonio Guterres:

And the framework looking into the questions of learning data that are very complex questions and where I believe we need to have some mechanisms of transparency in which I believe, again, the UN that has a convening capacity to bring people together can play a very important role. Others have the power, others have the money, but they have not the legitimacy and they have not the convening power the UN has.

Ian Bremmer:

I don't want people to lose this because you're talking about a lot of different components here. But what the United Nations is proposing to do is stand up the first global architecture for artificial intelligence so that the world can come together and understand.

Antonio Guterres:

But not a rigid architecture. Something that is able to evolve and something that is able to accompany what will be, I would say, an unpredictable evolution of what artificial intelligence will become in the next decades. But we know artificial intelligence will be the central element of change in the world in the near future.

Ian Bremmer:

We also know that today most of the Sustainable Development Goals with 193 countries that have come together and said, "Here's how we think humanity needs to evolve and develop," are not being met. They're failing. Is this new architecture the best way possible to turn that around?

Antonio Guterres:

It's a unique opportunity. I mean, one thing is clear. With the present rules most of the world is lagging behind. You can divide countries the rich, the big and the others. The rich, of course, will be doing well. The big, I mean the Indias, the Indonesias, even if they are not yet developed countries, the markets are so big that nobody can forget about them. They have shown an enormous resilience, these economies. They have proven that with COVID, with the war in Ukraine and all that they were able to sustain their development. Then you have the rest, the small countries where there is no attraction for investment, where we have all kinds of extreme difficulties in the lives of people, and that is where we need something new. We need something to allow them not to lag behind. We need something to allow them to have a quantum leap, and that quantum leap can come exactly from artificial intelligence if it is properly democratized.

Ian Bremmer:

Now, you've been working very hard behind the scenes with the leaders of many of these countries to nudge them into supporting these proposals. It appears to me at least, I mean, I know there's a lot of differences between the Chinese and the Russians and the Americans and the Europeans and the Global South, but it seems that generally there is widespread and near universal acceptance of these proposals.

Antonio Guterres:

In the beginning, it was not easy. I think the geopolitical divides in the beginning were having an effect of trying to slow things down. But now I believe people understood that of course there will be competition, that of course China and the United States have concentrate, I mean, I don't know, 80, 90% of the investment in artificial intelligence will be competing, but that we need to have a space where everybody can come together. Now this idea I think is accepted by everybody.

Ian Bremmer:

So you think today we look back and we see the critical role the United Nations played in getting everyone together to understand that climate change was happening and we needed to address it. In 10 years' time, do we look back at this United Nations General Assembly, at this Summit of the Future and say, "Yes, the world came together to understand that?" Is that what we're doing?

Antonio Guterres:

I hope so, but this will be the beginning. Let's have no illusions. This Summit will be the beginning of a process, and we must pursue that process in a determinant way, which means we need to make people understand that we are facing totally new problems, and we need to have deep reforms in the way we work, in the way we organize ourselves in our societies, and in the way we manage the international community.

Ian Bremmer:

Now, one more question before I move on to some of the more traditional difficult problems like the wars and the rest, which is we've already touched on the fact that in this space the technology companies have the know-how, have the money. It's moving really fast. They have a lot of the control of what it is that AI is doing, how it applies. What does that mean practically for trying to create a governance framework with the United Nations that you've got member states, you don't have member companies. How is that a challenge?

Antonio Guterres:

First of all, you need to talk to them.

Ian Bremmer:

Yeah.

Antonio Guterres:

And second, you need to make them understand that it's probably better for all of them to have a system in which there are a minimum of rules that everybody respects, a minimum of guardrails that everybody respects, and a minimum of security concerns that everybody respects. I hope that this will be possible.

Ian Bremmer:

Now you've had those conversations with a lot of the governments. How have your conversations with the leadership of the companies been?

Antonio Guterres:

They were quite positive about the involvement of the UN, which makes me be optimistic about the possibility to seriously discuss with them the problems that we face together.

Ian Bremmer:

When you say they, you're saying a majority, broad brush, the big ones that we all know.

Antonio Guterres:

The big ones. But of course, it's important also to speak to lots of young people that is now doing their best to bring new science. Even if we know, as I said, that there will inevitably be a concentration, a high concentration in the near future.

Ian Bremmer:

Let's move to the traditional conflicts. We are almost at the one year of the October 7th terrorist attacks and then of the war in Gaza. It seems like everyone in the world wants this war to be over except the leadership of Hamas and except the Israeli Prime Minister. What role can the United Nations play, if any, to help bring the war to a close?

Antonio Guterres:

I don't think we have many possibilities to convince the leadership of Hamas or to convince the Prime Minister of Israel. That is clear. What we can do and we do very clearly, is first of all to condemn what was the abhorrent terror attacks of Hamas and to say that this is totally unacceptable in a modern civilized world. And at the same time to tell Israel that the way they are conducting this war is also totally unacceptable. It is violation of international humanitarian law. I've never seen in my time as Secretary-General such a high level of deaths and destruction in a conflict like the one that we are witnessing in Gaza. Ad if what Hamas did is totally intolerable, it can never justify the collective punishment of the Palestinian people.

Ian Bremmer:

We have a General Assembly where the Palestinians are going to be given a symbolic seat. They're not a member. Many call for a two-state solution. We're not close to that it appears. Has there been constructive efforts that matter on the part of the member states of the United Nations to improve the long-term future for peace in the region?

Antonio Guterres:

There is growing consensus on the need of a solution based on two states. I have to say that in my past capacity when I was Prime Minister of Portugal, I did my best to work for the right of self-determination of the people of East Timor. Against all odds-

Ian Bremmer:

Now they're a county.

Antonio Guterres:

Against the opinion of everybody that thought we would never get it, we managed all together to guarantee that East Timor today is an independent country. Now the same right to self-determination that I fought for the East Timorese people, I'm fighting now for the Palestinian people.

Ian Bremmer:

You're optimistic.

Antonio Guterres:

You know, there is a sentence I usually use in these circumstances, which is copying Jean Monnet. "I'm not optimistic, I'm not pessimistic. I'm just determined."

Ian Bremmer:

I liked Madeleine Albright who used to say, "I'm an optimist, but I worry a lot." But that's the American perspective as opposed to the European you see. That's-

Antonio Guterres:

Yes.

Ian Bremmer:

What we're getting right here. Let's move to Russia. Here is an environment where not only is the war persisting, but it's being fought by a country with an immense amount of destructive capability. And it appears that there is escalation. The West continues to increase the level of the weaponry and the willingness to use that weaponry to target the Russians, and the Russians increase their missile attacks against Ukraine, its civilians, and its critical infrastructure. You work with the Russians. Not many Americans can say that right now. What do you think the mood of the Russian leadership is vis-a-vis the rest of the international community?

Antonio Guterres:

I think at the present moment there is a clear opposition that is very obvious. But we did our best to solve some small problems, even if they were relevant, namely in relation to the release of the-

Ian Bremmer:

Prisoner exchange.

Antonio Guterres:

Prisoners of Azovstal, the Black Sea Grain Initiative. But the UN was never wished by the parties to play a key role in relation to a peace process. So our position is very clear. I mean, we must stick to principles, and to stick to principles is to say that we want peace, but we want a just peace. We want a peace based on the UN Charter, based on international law. One of the key aspects of international law is the respect for the territorial integrity of states. Obviously that limits our capacity to be part of any negotiation, but I think it's very important to have a voice that sticks to principles and tells the world that the day international law is neglected and the day territorial integrity of countries is forgotten we will have chaos in the world.

Ian Bremmer:

The President of Turkey, who you know very well, one of the few leaders that can both talk to NATO but also talks to the Kremlin also has played a role.

Antonio Guterres:

He's a member of NATO.

Ian Bremmer:

Yes. And yet he has said publicly in the last days that full territorial integrity of Ukraine is non-negotiable, even including Crimea. So he's in the same position you are.

Antonio Guterres:

Well, that's something that I can only rejoice with.

Ian Bremmer:

Do you think that the role of not just the West, but China, India, countries that are doing much more business with Russia today, have they been constructive? Have they been useful in trying to limit the escalation, the damage that can be done in this war?

Antonio Guterres:

Well, I hope so. I do not know the intricacies of the diplomacy among those countries, but I hope so. I hope that they have a positive influence to help convince Russia that this war is a war that is undermining the interests of Russia itself and it's undermining peace in the world.

Ian Bremmer:

Final question I want to ask you about is China and China and the world. Because the United Nations is an organization that works quite inclusively with China and increasingly with China on Peacekeepers and on AI and on climate, all of these issues.

Antonio Guterres:

It's our second-largest contributor.

Ian Bremmer:

22%? What is it?

Antonio Guterres:

There has been a revaluation, and we are already above 20%.

Ian Bremmer:

So when you look at what's happening in the world more broadly, globalization starting to fragment, people talk about de-risking, they talk about decoupling. And the Chinese, strong members of the UN, strong donors to the UN, but also building new architecture, belt and road bricks, all of this sort of thing, how do you relate to China's role in the world geopolitically? How should other countries in the world rethink, if at all, the way they relate to China?

Antonio Guterres:

I think that China is a reality that cannot be forgotten. China was the biggest economy in the world until the 18th century, and it might become soon the biggest economy in the world. So it's a reality. Now, there are many differences, relevant differences between China and Western countries on a number of issues. There are two possibilities. One is to try to fracture the world and to have one kind of world led by China and one kind of world led by others. I think it will be a disaster, a disaster for the global economy, a disaster for the global society. The second is to say we have differences. There are points on which we disagree. There are questions that are sensitive, in the economy for instance, the questions of investment, the questions of transparency, the questions of depth, the questions of cybersecurity. I mean, there are many questions in which we eventually disagree. Let's put them on the table. Let's negotiate. Let's try to find an agreement. And my belief is that there is a large scope for a serious negotiation provided both sides want to negotiate.

Ian Bremmer:

Antonio Guterres, thanks so much for joining us today.

Antonio Guterres:

Thank you.

Ian Bremmer:

That's it for today's edition of the GZERO World Podcast. Do you like what you heard? Of course you do. Why not make it official? Why don't you rate and review GZERO World. Five stars, only five stars; otherwise, don't do it, on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts. Tell your friends.