What We're Watching

Disaster and democracy: How Helene could sway the vote in battleground states

​Democratic presidential nominee and US Vice President Kamala Harris helps out at a food distribution center during a visit to storm-damaged areas in the wake of Hurricane Helene, in Augusta, Ga., on Oct. 2, 2024.

Democratic presidential nominee and US Vice President Kamala Harris helps out at a food distribution center during a visit to storm-damaged areas in the wake of Hurricane Helene, in Augusta, Ga., on Oct. 2, 2024.

REUTERS/Elizabeth Frantz

With just over a month before Election Day, Hurricane Helene – which killed at least 125 people and left disaster zones in 66 counties across the Carolinas, Georgia, and Florida – could affect the vote.

The storm has halted mail service and disrupted absentee voting. Thousands of polling stations are flooded or inaccessible, with early voting already underway in North Carolina.

The portion of the Tar Heel State most affected by the storm contains almost 1 million voters. In 2020, Donald Trump defeated Joe Biden in North Carolina by fewer than 80,000 votes, his smallest margin of victory in any state. Asheville, one of the strongest hit areas, is a Democratic stronghold. But outside of that, the storm disproportionately affected rural counties where Trump has the advantage – and may have the most to lose.

It also gives the current administration a reason to shower these swing states with aid and attention. President Joe Biden visited North Carolina on Wednesday and has deployed 1,000 US soldiers to assist in recovery efforts. Meanwhile, Kamala Harris was in Georgia on Wednesday to discuss recovery and meet with people impacted by the storm. That being said, if their response is seen as insufficient, Harris could be punished at the polls.

Eurasia Group’s US analyst Noah Daponte-Smith says that he is watching out for two things: “whether there is a negative public reaction to the floods in a way that hurts the incumbent party, i.e. Harris, and whether we do see any signs this will depress turnout in rural areas.”

Were you impacted by the hurricane? Please share your story with us here.

More For You

Natalie Johnson

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney attended a meeting of the European Political Community in Armenia this weekend, a first by the leader of a non-European country. He was invited to discuss common interests in trade, energy, and security. In a speech that echoed his address to the World Economic Forum in Davos two months earlier, Carney called on middle powers, including Canada and European nations, to work together in the wake of disruption of the established world order — implicitly pointing to the United States. “It’s my strong personal view that the international order will be rebuilt,” he told the crowd in Yerevan, “but it will be rebuilt out of Europe.”

Magyar, leader of the opposition Tisza Party, speaks during a press conference a day after the parliamentary election, in which Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban conceded defeat, Budapest, Hungary, April 13, 2026.
REUTERS/Marton Monus/File Photo

At first glance, Hungary’s Prime Minister-elect Péter Magyar may appear to be the antithesis of the man he defeated in the April 12 election, Viktor Orbán. Yet the pair might be closer than you think – both on policy and politics.