Venezuelans are voting in make-or-break elections as President Nicolás Madurotrails behind opposition leader Edmundo González by up to 30 percentage points in some polls. González – a retired diplomat who stepped in after the most popular opposition leader Maria Corina Machado was barred – might be the country’s best chance to restore democracy.
The background: Maduro’s 11 years in power have been marred with economic instability so severe as to cause mass malnutrition, violent political crackdowns, and America’s worst migration crisis in history. Over 7 million Venezuelans have fled repression and starvation since 2015. Maduro, currently under investigation by the ICC for alleged crimes against humanity, has led Venezuela to “the single largest economic collapse for a non-conflict country in almost half a century” according to the IMF.
How has he stayed in power? In past elections, Maduro has kept the crown by barring and jailing challengers – and using his thugs to intimidate voters. His actions have been met by US sanctions, and the last election was deemed illegitimate by the US, Canada, and 14 other countries.
Polls show an undeniable truth Maduro seems unwilling to accept: He cannot beat González in a free and fair election. This leaves Maduro – who most analysts presume will resist a peaceful transition of power – two options: mass electoral fraud and political crackdowns or making good on his warnings of a “bloodbath” and “civil war” if he loses. So far at least, the government has not reported any unrest at polling places.
For more on Venezuela’s election, check out GZERO’s Viewpoint interview with Eurasia Group expert Risa Grais-Targowhere.